2020 TCRs

[Iceresistance]

Anyone think Eta will be upgraded to a 5? Certainly a better case than Laura, and if it weren't for the recon issues, they might have found sufficient data.

Maybe, Eta was a sneaky storm, gets weaker when Recon is there & Stronger otherwise . . .

[aspen]

TCRs have been releasing in pairs over the last few weeks, so maybe we might get another one today or tomorrow.

[MarioProtVI]

Anyone think Eta will be upgraded to a 5? Certainly a better case than Laura, and if it weren't for the recon issues, they might have found sufficient data.

From someone I know in a discord server said this about Eta and I agree that it likely won’t be upgraded to a 5.

Here is my meteorologically-based argument on why I think Eta was not a C5:

-Recon entered Eta around 10:15 p.m. EST on November 2. At the time, the maximum flight-level wind was 137 kt, and the maximum SFMR wind was 135 kt. A blend of these would support an intensity of about 129 kt, right in line with NHC's 130 kt intensity.
-The pressure was still falling quickly between passes (about 3 mb), so it seems unlikely that Eta was actually *stronger* before recon arrived
-It is likely Eta did deepen a bit more after that final pass, but it is unclear if the winds caught up. It likely did not deepen for long though, since the pressure had quickly risen by 7am. Raw Ts begun to decrease almost immediately after recon left.
-By 4am EST, concentric eyewalls had appeared on radar.
-By 7am EST when the next recon arrived, Eta had weakened significantly and the pressure rose to the mid-upper 930s.

I know the satellite appearance was impressive, but you have to remember, in November, the tropopause is very cold, and the very cold CDO made Eta appear stronger than it actually was.

Makes sense when you look at it closer too tbh.

[NotoSans]

Five reports left (Laura, Teddy, Zeta, Eta and Iota) and NHC plans to finish them up over the next few weeks.
 https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1384535922264481792

[InfernoFlameCat]

Anyone think Eta will be upgraded to a 5? Certainly a better case than Laura, and if it weren't for the recon issues, they might have found sufficient data.

From someone I know in a discord server said this about Eta and I agree that it likely won’t be upgraded to a 5.

Here is my meteorologically-based argument on why I think Eta was not a C5:

-Recon entered Eta around 10:15 p.m. EST on November 2. At the time, the maximum flight-level wind was 137 kt, and the maximum SFMR wind was 135 kt. A blend of these would support an intensity of about 129 kt, right in line with NHC's 130 kt intensity.
-The pressure was still falling quickly between passes (about 3 mb), so it seems unlikely that Eta was actually *stronger* before recon arrived
-It is likely Eta did deepen a bit more after that final pass, but it is unclear if the winds caught up. It likely did not deepen for long though, since the pressure had quickly risen by 7am. Raw Ts begun to decrease almost immediately after recon left.
-By 4am EST, concentric eyewalls had appeared on radar.
-By 7am EST when the next recon arrived, Eta had weakened significantly and the pressure rose to the mid-upper 930s.

I know the satellite appearance was impressive, but you have to remember, in November, the tropopause is very cold, and the very cold CDO made Eta appear stronger than it actually was.

Makes sense when you look at it closer too tbh.

Eta might be too controversial to upgrade to Cat 5 because if it was then it was not 160 mph it was 157mph if you get my drift. I don't think it could have produced 1 minute sustained 160mph anywhere below 50 ft above SL. Id go Cat 4 155mph Personally

[aspen]

Anyone think Eta will be upgraded to a 5? Certainly a better case than Laura, and if it weren't for the recon issues, they might have found sufficient data.

From someone I know in a discord server said this about Eta and I agree that it likely won’t be upgraded to a 5.

Here is my meteorologically-based argument on why I think Eta was not a C5:

-Recon entered Eta around 10:15 p.m. EST on November 2. At the time, the maximum flight-level wind was 137 kt, and the maximum SFMR wind was 135 kt. A blend of these would support an intensity of about 129 kt, right in line with NHC's 130 kt intensity.
-The pressure was still falling quickly between passes (about 3 mb), so it seems unlikely that Eta was actually *stronger* before recon arrived
-It is likely Eta did deepen a bit more after that final pass, but it is unclear if the winds caught up. It likely did not deepen for long though, since the pressure had quickly risen by 7am. Raw Ts begun to decrease almost immediately after recon left.
-By 4am EST, concentric eyewalls had appeared on radar.
-By 7am EST when the next recon arrived, Eta had weakened significantly and the pressure rose to the mid-upper 930s.

I know the satellite appearance was impressive, but you have to remember, in November, the tropopause is very cold, and the very cold CDO made Eta appear stronger than it actually was.

Makes sense when you look at it closer too tbh.

Recon wasn’t able to sample the NW quadrant, the central pressure was plummeting at 3-5 mb/hr during that night’s recon flight, and it was a few more hours until the starting EWRC really started to have a noticeable impact on the storm. I think there’s a good case for at least a bit of an upgrade, maybe lowering the pressure down into the high 910s, or perhaps raising the winds to 135 kt. A Cat 5 is very difficult to say without that third pass we were all hoping for.

[ncforecaster89]

Five reports left (Laura, Teddy, Zeta, Eta and Iota) and NHC plans to finish them up over the next few weeks.
https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1384535922264481792?s=21

I may be way off on this speculation, but I can’t help but theorize that the NHC may be withholding release of Laura, as it is arguably the most anticipated, as they seem to be much more social media conscious than ever. Consequently, I expect Zeta to be released ahead of Laura despite occurring a full two months after the latter storm.

[tolakram]

Five reports left (Laura, Teddy, Zeta, Eta and Iota) and NHC plans to finish them up over the next few weeks.
https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1384535922264481792?s=21

I may be way off on this speculation, but I can’t help but theorize that the NHC may be withholding release of Laura, as it is arguably the most anticipated, as they seem to be much more social media conscious than ever. Consequently, I expect Zeta to be released ahead of Laura despite occurring a full two months after the latter storm.

Why on earth would they do this? TCR releases are hardly big events except to a very small but enthusiastic community. If the release is delayed it simply means they aren't done. Let's stop making stuff up unless you have good evidence.

[Homie J]

Five reports left (Laura, Teddy, Zeta, Eta and Iota) and NHC plans to finish them up over the next few weeks.
https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1384535922264481792?s=21

I may be way off on this speculation, but I can’t help but theorize that the NHC may be withholding release of Laura, as it is arguably the most anticipated, as they seem to be much more social media conscious than ever. Consequently, I expect Zeta to be released ahead of Laura despite occurring a full two months after the latter storm.

I really don't think the general public cares about these TCR. Its almost entirely the weather communities like this that will notice and care. I don't remember any major media outlets debating if one tropical storm was this intensity etc. well after the storm itself is gone.

[ncforecaster89]

Five reports left (Laura, Teddy, Zeta, Eta and Iota) and NHC plans to finish them up over the next few weeks.
https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1384535922264481792?s=21

I may be way off on this speculation, but I can’t help but theorize that the NHC may be withholding release of Laura, as it is arguably the most anticipated, as they seem to be much more social media conscious than ever. Consequently, I expect Zeta to be released ahead of Laura despite occurring a full two months after the latter storm.

Why on earth would they do this? TCR releases are hardly big events except to a very small but enthusiastic community. If the release is delayed it simply means they aren't done. Let's stop making stuff up unless you have good evidence.

My post most certainly could’ve been worded much better to accurately convey my speculation (see “withholding” in previous post). Let me try this again. I suspect the TCR for Laura could’ve already been completed if it was prioritized to be done in chronological order and/or more resources were utilized to accomplish the task.

Although I understand and can appreciate the decision to get as many of the less impactful and shorter-lived TCs out of the way, one could also make the case that placing more emphasis on completing the TCR’s for the most significant storms might’ve been a better choice.

In reality, it really makes little difference. And as I stated above, I won’t be surprised if Zeta is released prior to Laura...despite occurring a full two months after the latter.

[Shell Mound]

My personal calls on the remaining five TCRs:

Laura: 130 → 135 knots
Teddy: no change
Zeta: 95 → 100 knots
Eta: 130 → 135 knots
Iota: no change

Maybe the NHC disregarded the NEXRAD signatures during Sally because those features were short-lived and related to mesoscale dynamics...?

[ColdMiser123]

My personal calls on the remaining five TCRs:

Laura: 130 → 135 knots
Teddy: no change
Zeta: 95 → 100 knots
Eta: 130 → 135 knots
Iota: no change

Maybe the NHC disregarded the NEXRAD signatures during Sally because those features were short-lived and related to mesoscale dynamics...?

They mentioned this explicitly in the TCR for Isaias, that they disregarded the 117 kt FL wind since they didn't believe that was representative of the overall wind field that they were finding.

While there was one flight-level wind observation of 117 kt, this observation appears to be a singular spike, possibly in a meso-vortex sampled around that same time and is not considered
representative of Isaias’ intensity.

There is no such disclaimer in the Sally TCR concerning the WSR-88D bin velocities, which indicates the WSR-88D bin velocities played no role in the final assessment for the max wind speed. As a result, the NHC didn't determine if those bin velocities were related to more mesoscale features or not.

[NotoSans]

Teddy is out. Not much discussion covering its structure.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL202020_Teddy.pdf

[aspen]

Teddy is out. Not much discussion covering its structure.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL202020_Teddy.pdf

No change to peak intensity either. It’s been kept at 120 kt and 945 mbar.

[Iceresistance]

Teddy is out. Not much discussion covering its structure.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL202020_Teddy.pdf

No change to peak intensity either. It’s been kept at 120 kt and 945 mbar.

It makes sense to keep at 135 mph & 945 MB because of a clear eye, but kept having EWRCs & dry air . . .

[MarioProtVI]

One interesting thing to note is that Blake wrote it, and he tweeted today that he just has Zeta’s left to go and that it will be the third longest he’s written behind Sandy and Harvey... One of them was upgraded to a major. Thinking Zeta will most likely get an upgrade in its TCR based on his words..

[ncforecaster89]

One interesting thing to note is that Blake wrote it, and he tweeted today that he just has Zeta’s left to go and that it will be the third longest he’s written behind Sandy and Harvey... One of them was upgraded to a major. Thinking Zeta will most likely get an upgrade in its TCR based on his words..

Thank you for sharing this info! I too suspect Zeta will be upgraded to a Cat 3 landfall. Will be interesting to see if there is any additional data we might be unaware of that more strongly argues for a 100 kt intensity...such as the 18 m wind observation contained in the Sally TCR.

The data was there (to include the radial velocities as noted by coldmiser) to support a Cat 3 designation for Sally and the same is true for Zeta. Consequently, I’d argue that 2020 likely had three major hurricane (MH) U.S. landfalls and should be in a T2 with the 1893, 1909, and 2004 seasons for most U.S. mainland MH landfalls...behind the four that occurred in 2005.

[ElectricStorm]

One interesting thing to note is that Blake wrote it, and he tweeted today that he just has Zeta’s left to go and that it will be the third longest he’s written behind Sandy and Harvey... One of them was upgraded to a major. Thinking Zeta will most likely get an upgrade in its TCR based on his words..

Thank you for sharing this info! I too suspect Zeta will be upgraded to a Cat 3 landfall. Will be interesting to see if there is any additional data we might be unaware of that more strongly argues for a 100 kt intensity...such as the 18 m wind observation contained in the Sally TCR.

The data was there (to include the radial velocities as noted by coldmiser) to support a Cat 3 designation for Sally and the same is true for Zeta. Consequently, I’d argue that 2020 likely had three major hurricane (MH) U.S. landfalls and should be in a T2 with the 1893, 1909, and 2004 seasons for most U.S. mainland MH landfalls...behind the four that occurred in 2005.

I personally think Zeta had a bit more evidence for the Cat 3 upgrade, and I think it'll get it. Which means 2020 will likely end up trying 2005 for the most majors in a single season with 7.

[ncforecaster89]

One interesting thing to note is that Blake wrote it, and he tweeted today that he just has Zeta’s left to go and that it will be the third longest he’s written behind Sandy and Harvey... One of them was upgraded to a major. Thinking Zeta will most likely get an upgrade in its TCR based on his words..

Thank you for sharing this info! I too suspect Zeta will be upgraded to a Cat 3 landfall. Will be interesting to see if there is any additional data we might be unaware of that more strongly argues for a 100 kt intensity...such as the 18 m wind observation contained in the Sally TCR.

The data was there (to include the radial velocities as noted by coldmiser) to support a Cat 3 designation for Sally and the same is true for Zeta. Consequently, I’d argue that 2020 likely had three major hurricane (MH) U.S. landfalls and should be in a T2 with the 1893, 1909, and 2004 seasons for most U.S. mainland MH landfalls...behind the four that occurred in 2005.

I personally think Zeta had a bit more evidence for the Cat 3 upgrade, and I think it'll get it. Which means 2020 will likely end up trying 2005 for the most majors in a single season with 7.

Hi Weather Dude! I agree with you on Zeta, but will only reiterate that the data was certainly there for the Sally upgrade as well.

As a result, the 2020 season likely had 8 MHs...although it will go down officially as only 7 (with Zeta’s upgrade).

[ElectricStorm]

Thank you for sharing this info! I too suspect Zeta will be upgraded to a Cat 3 landfall. Will be interesting to see if there is any additional data we might be unaware of that more strongly argues for a 100 kt intensity...such as the 18 m wind observation contained in the Sally TCR.

The data was there (to include the radial velocities as noted by coldmiser) to support a Cat 3 designation for Sally and the same is true for Zeta. Consequently, I’d argue that 2020 likely had three major hurricane (MH) U.S. landfalls and should be in a T2 with the 1893, 1909, and 2004 seasons for most U.S. mainland MH landfalls...behind the four that occurred in 2005.

I personally think Zeta had a bit more evidence for the Cat 3 upgrade, and I think it'll get it. Which means 2020 will likely end up trying 2005 for the most majors in a single season with 7.

Hi Weather Dude! I agree with you on Zeta, but will only reiterate that the data was certainly there for the Sally upgrade as well.

As a result, the 2020 season likely had 8 MHs...although it will go down officially as only 7 (with Zeta’s upgrade).

I had Sally going either way, but it did definitely had a solid case for the upgrade, but didn't happen in the end. Extremely close call either way. It will be interesting to see what they find for Zeta.