2020 TCRs

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Re: 2020 TCRs

#101 Postby ClarCari » Thu Apr 01, 2021 4:56 am

Some of the ACE of Alpha and Hanna’s BT’s were offset at least some by Marco and Delta’s downgrades in places.

I think Gamma’s upgrade to Hurricane status is almost pretty much a slam dunk as well as Laura’s peak to 135kts since many mets across the board (and youtube and twitter haha) mostly agree to that the same way we agreed to Marco’s lackluster “landfall” and Delta’s peak being a bit overestimated.

Zeta (and even Sally kinda) being a Cat. 3 and Eta being a 5 at peak are more contentious and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the NHC swing either way on their reports whereas I’d be shocked if they didn’t upgrade Laura or Gamma by 5kts.

Oh and Fay’s TCR was just updated yesterday to include Tornado information.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#102 Postby wxman57 » Sat Apr 03, 2021 10:53 am

FrontRunner wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:Marco's genesis was also delayed by 18 hours, a decision I agree with.


I was surprised to see that in the report. That's got to be exceedingly rare, right?

I don't recall the specifics of Marco....what do you think led them to start issuing advisories earlier in real time but then delay genesis in the end? I only skimmed the report but didn't see them elaborate on that decision.


Its dissipation should have been about 18 hours earlier, too. It was certainly not a TS as it passed south of the mouth of the Mississippi. Crosshairs mark the center:

Image
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#103 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Apr 03, 2021 1:46 pm

wxman57 wrote:
FrontRunner wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:Marco's genesis was also delayed by 18 hours, a decision I agree with.


I was surprised to see that in the report. That's got to be exceedingly rare, right?

I don't recall the specifics of Marco....what do you think led them to start issuing advisories earlier in real time but then delay genesis in the end? I only skimmed the report but didn't see them elaborate on that decision.


Its dissipation should have been about 18 hours earlier, too. It was certainly not a TS as it passed south of the mouth of the Mississippi. Crosshairs mark the center:

http://wxman57.com/images/Marco2.JPG


I agree. I'd have classified it as remnant low at that point, regardless of whether it actually made landfall or not.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#104 Postby ClarCari » Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:04 am

Now that I think about it, I’m kinda surprised Delta’s TCR was released before Laura’s. You would think that you would need all the info about damages of of one storm before you covered another that impacted a similar area soon afterwards.
NHC released the storm surge data on Laura on their site, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Laura’s TCR released sooner rather than later. Likely sooner than Eta and Iota.
And maybeeee sooner than Isaias, Paulette, and Sally!
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#105 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Apr 06, 2021 7:42 am

This presentation on Laura mentions two high-water marks of ~17 feet above ground level having been measured in or near Creole and Rutherford Beach, LA, respectively, the former of which was more likely to have been considered reliable, so the forecast for surge heights of 15 to 20 feet AGL definitely verified and is likely to be mentioned in the forthcoming TCR. Based on observations, the estimated peak surge during Laura is projected to have been ~18 feet AGL.
A team from the USGS surveyed a stillwater high water mark of 17.1 feet AGL in the second-story bathroom of a home in the Oak Grove neighborhood of Creole, Louisiana, which is the highest storm surge measurement from Hurricane Laura that doesn’t include wave action. A team from the NWS Weather Forecast Office in Lake Charles, Louisiana, measured a HWM of 17.2 feet AGL on a structure at Rutherford Beach, on the coast south of Creole, but it is likely that this location was exposed to significant wave action, making the extraction of a stilled HWM difficult. ... A high-resolution storm surge hindcast simulation produced by the NHC Storm Surge Unit suggests that peak inundation heights could have been a little higher in areas where there were no observations or surveyed high water marks; thus the maximum inundation produced by Laura is estimated to be 18 feet AGL.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#106 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:45 am

Hurricane Paulette report is up as peak intensity was 90 kt in a long journey it had.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#107 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:54 am

cycloneye wrote:Hurricane Paulette report is up as peak intensity was 90 kt in a long journey it had.

A bit surprised there wasn't a slight boost up to 95kt for peak intensity considering the satellite estimates included in the TCR. Either way, an impressive system that managed to battle an incredible amount of shear from the TUTT and untimely aerosols caused by the southwestern US's wildfires.
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Re: 2020 TCRs: Hurricane Paulette is up

#108 Postby aspen » Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:10 am

Was Paulette subtropical operationally during its second genesis? I forget.
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Re: 2020 TCRs: Hurricane Paulette is up

#109 Postby ColdMiser123 » Tue Apr 06, 2021 12:13 pm

Somewhat interesting that the NHC finished their report for Delta before they finished it for Sally, despite Delta having two Category 2 landfalls, being a significant storm as a whole, and taking place around a few weeks after Sally.

That by itself doesn't necessarily mean any kind of upgrade, but what it does mean is that they are continuing to painstakingly go through more data for Sally. The end result of what they find will definitely be comprehensive and thorough.
Last edited by ColdMiser123 on Tue Apr 06, 2021 12:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2020 TCRs: Hurricane Paulette is up

#110 Postby ClarCari » Tue Apr 06, 2021 12:17 pm

aspen wrote:Was Paulette subtropical operationally during its second genesis? I forget.

Almost. The first BT before Paulette’s first “zombie” advisory put it as a SS, but then was updated and the advisory stated it as a TS. The report said the frontal features dissipated before re-genesis.
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Re: 2020 TCRs: Hurricane Paulette is up

#111 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:45 pm

Tropical Storm Beta is up and had the peak intensity at 55 kts.
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Re: 2020 TCRs: Hurricane Paulette is up

#112 Postby aspen » Tue Apr 06, 2021 5:09 pm

cycloneye wrote:Tropical Storm Beta is up and had the peak intensity at 55 kts.

And here comes the flurry of reports we were waiting for.

Crazy that Paulette and Beta were both active at the same time.
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Re: 2020 TCRs: Hurricane Paulette is up

#113 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Tue Apr 06, 2021 6:57 pm

I believe that's a 5kt increase in peak intensity and a 1mb drop in minimum pressure for Beta. Not entirely certain of either, though.
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Re: 2020 TCRs: Hurricane Paulette is up

#114 Postby JetFuel_SE » Wed Apr 07, 2021 1:04 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:Somewhat interesting that the NHC finished their report for Delta before they finished it for Sally, despite Delta having two Category 2 landfalls, being a significant storm as a whole, and taking place around a few weeks after Sally.

That by itself doesn't necessarily mean any kind of upgrade, but what it does mean is that they are continuing to painstakingly go through more data for Sally. The end result of what they find will definitely be comprehensive and thorough.


Maybe they're discussing upgrading it to a C3? I'm unsure about if there's enough evidence for that, but I do think they'll up the intensity for it.
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Re: 2020 TCRs: Hurricane Paulette is up

#115 Postby ncforecaster89 » Wed Apr 07, 2021 3:17 pm

JetFuel_SE wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:Somewhat interesting that the NHC finished their report for Delta before they finished it for Sally, despite Delta having two Category 2 landfalls, being a significant storm as a whole, and taking place around a few weeks after Sally.

That by itself doesn't necessarily mean any kind of upgrade, but what it does mean is that they are continuing to painstakingly go through more data for Sally. The end result of what they find will definitely be comprehensive and thorough.


Maybe they're discussing upgrading it to a C3? I'm unsure about if there's enough evidence for that, but I do think they'll up the intensity for it.


As I’ve stated multiple times since Sally’s landfall, I believe it should be upgraded to a 100 kt Cat 3, but don’t expect the NHC will do so. The main data supportive of a potential upgrade is the 700 mb FLW of 110 kt measured by RECON near time of landfall. As is often the case in such borderline cases like these, it will come down to the collective subjective opinion of the NHC forecasters.

If it were my decision, I’d err on the high-end given there’s real in-situ data to support a 100 kt intensity. I’ll conclude by sharing that Sally produced the most intense winds I’ve ever experienced or documented in my five-decade storm chasing career...for an operational estimated Cat 2 hurricane, for whatever that’s worth.

https://youtu.be/f1KuJOr0hb0

P.s. In contrast, I suspect the NHC will upgrade Zeta to 100 kt for its LA landfall.
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Re: 2020 TCRs: Hurricane Paulette is up

#116 Postby ColdMiser123 » Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:23 am

ncforecaster89 wrote:
JetFuel_SE wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:Somewhat interesting that the NHC finished their report for Delta before they finished it for Sally, despite Delta having two Category 2 landfalls, being a significant storm as a whole, and taking place around a few weeks after Sally.

That by itself doesn't necessarily mean any kind of upgrade, but what it does mean is that they are continuing to painstakingly go through more data for Sally. The end result of what they find will definitely be comprehensive and thorough.


Maybe they're discussing upgrading it to a C3? I'm unsure about if there's enough evidence for that, but I do think they'll up the intensity for it.


As I’ve stated multiple times since Sally’s landfall, I believe it should be upgraded to a 100 kt Cat 3, but don’t expect the NHC will do so. The main data supportive of a potential upgrade is the 700 mb FLW of 110 kt measured by RECON near time of landfall. As is often the case in such borderline cases like these, it will come down to the collective subjective opinion of the NHC forecasters.

If it were my decision, I’d err on the high-end given there’s real in-situ data to support a 100 kt intensity. I’ll conclude by sharing that Sally produced the most intense winds I’ve ever experienced or documented in my five-decade storm chasing career...for an operational estimated Cat 2 hurricane, for whatever that’s worth.

https://youtu.be/f1KuJOr0hb0

P.s. In contrast, I suspect the NHC will upgrade Zeta to 100 kt for its LA landfall.


I can't speak for the decision making that is currently taking place at the NHC when it comes to the final intensity they will end up going with, but I've made a post earlier as to why it will most likely be a close call between a high-end Category 2, and a low-end Category 3 for Sally as the final intensity.

That being said, I think it is significant that one of the NHC forecasters tweeted this out just before Sally made landfall:

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1306105906564915200


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Re: 2020 TCRs: Hurricane Paulette is up

#117 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Apr 09, 2021 12:46 am

ColdMiser123 wrote:
ncforecaster89 wrote:
JetFuel_SE wrote:
Maybe they're discussing upgrading it to a C3? I'm unsure about if there's enough evidence for that, but I do think they'll up the intensity for it.


As I’ve stated multiple times since Sally’s landfall, I believe it should be upgraded to a 100 kt Cat 3, but don’t expect the NHC will do so. The main data supportive of a potential upgrade is the 700 mb FLW of 110 kt measured by RECON near time of landfall. As is often the case in such borderline cases like these, it will come down to the collective subjective opinion of the NHC forecasters.

If it were my decision, I’d err on the high-end given there’s real in-situ data to support a 100 kt intensity. I’ll conclude by sharing that Sally produced the most intense winds I’ve ever experienced or documented in my five-decade storm chasing career...for an operational estimated Cat 2 hurricane, for whatever that’s worth.

https://youtu.be/f1KuJOr0hb0

P.s. In contrast, I suspect the NHC will upgrade Zeta to 100 kt for its LA landfall.


I can't speak for the decision making that is currently taking place at the NHC when it comes to the final intensity they will end up going with, but I've made a post earlier as to why it will most likely be a close call between a high-end Category 2, and a low-end Category 3 for Sally as the final intensity.

That being said, I think it is significant that one of the NHC forecasters tweeted this out just before Sally made landfall:

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1306105906564915200

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1306107100456792064


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Re: 2020 TCRs: Hurricane Paulette is up

#118 Postby ColdMiser123 » Fri Apr 09, 2021 1:59 am

Shell Mound wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:
ncforecaster89 wrote:
As I’ve stated multiple times since Sally’s landfall, I believe it should be upgraded to a 100 kt Cat 3, but don’t expect the NHC will do so. The main data supportive of a potential upgrade is the 700 mb FLW of 110 kt measured by RECON near time of landfall. As is often the case in such borderline cases like these, it will come down to the collective subjective opinion of the NHC forecasters.

If it were my decision, I’d err on the high-end given there’s real in-situ data to support a 100 kt intensity. I’ll conclude by sharing that Sally produced the most intense winds I’ve ever experienced or documented in my five-decade storm chasing career...for an operational estimated Cat 2 hurricane, for whatever that’s worth.

https://youtu.be/f1KuJOr0hb0

P.s. In contrast, I suspect the NHC will upgrade Zeta to 100 kt for its LA landfall.


I can't speak for the decision making that is currently taking place at the NHC when it comes to the final intensity they will end up going with, but I've made a post earlier as to why it will most likely be a close call between a high-end Category 2, and a low-end Category 3 for Sally as the final intensity.

That being said, I think it is significant that one of the NHC forecasters tweeted this out just before Sally made landfall:

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1306105906564915200

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1306107100456792064


The lower 150 meter average of 113 kt is much more significant than the 112 kt instantaneous wind at the surface.

Should note as well that while this might seem like semantics, the 0.85 reduction from 113 kt gives you a surface wind estimate of 96 kt, which would be low-end Category 3. It goes toward the overall idea that this will be a close call between a high-end Category 2 and a low-end Category 3.
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Re: 2020 TCRs: Hurricane Paulette is up

#119 Postby BadLarry95 » Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:34 am

ColdMiser123 wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:
I can't speak for the decision making that is currently taking place at the NHC when it comes to the final intensity they will end up going with, but I've made a post earlier as to why it will most likely be a close call between a high-end Category 2, and a low-end Category 3 for Sally as the final intensity.

That being said, I think it is significant that one of the NHC forecasters tweeted this out just before Sally made landfall:

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1306105906564915200

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1306107100456792064


The lower 150 meter average of 113 kt is much more significant than the 112 kt instantaneous wind at the surface.

Should note as well that while this might seem like semantics, the 0.85 reduction from 113 kt gives you a surface wind estimate of 96 kt, which would be low-end Category 3. It goes toward the overall idea that this will be a close call between a high-end Category 2 and a low-end Category 3.



If Sally or Zeta are upgraded to cat 3, they will be the first US landfalling major hurricanes to not be retired since Hurricane Bret in 1999 (hit unpopulated stretch of coastline)
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Re: 2020 TCRs: Hurricane Paulette is up

#120 Postby ColdMiser123 » Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:37 am

BadLarry95 wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:


The lower 150 meter average of 113 kt is much more significant than the 112 kt instantaneous wind at the surface.

Should note as well that while this might seem like semantics, the 0.85 reduction from 113 kt gives you a surface wind estimate of 96 kt, which would be low-end Category 3. It goes toward the overall idea that this will be a close call between a high-end Category 2 and a low-end Category 3.



If Sally or Zeta are upgraded to cat 3, they will be the first US landfalling major hurricanes to not be retired since Hurricane Bret in 1999 (hit unpopulated stretch of coastline)


Also noteworthy that Sally is the costliest Atlantic hurricane not to be retired.
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