2020 TCRs

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Re: 2020 TCRs

#61 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:00 am

cycloneye wrote:The report of Tropical Storm Gonzalo is up. Peaked at 55 kts.

https://i.imgur.com/EYQ0WlH.jpg

This appears reasonable, though reconnaissance likely would have found a minimal hurricane, given the compact size of the system.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#62 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:48 am

The NHC site has labeled Gonzalo as “Subtropical Storm Gonzalo” which confused me for a bit but it never became subtropical.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#63 Postby aspen » Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:59 am

I’m quite surprised neither Alpha nor Gonzalo received any intensity upgrades, even with Alpha’s genesis being pushed to over a day earlier.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#64 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Feb 04, 2021 12:14 pm

Gonzalo was never a hurricane for the following reasons; although for most of its life it wasn't experiencing strong shear it was small, it was surrounded by dry air, and did not have a very strong pressure gradient given its location in the monsoon trough existing throughout the tropical Atlantic.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#65 Postby Weather Dude » Thu Feb 04, 2021 1:01 pm

I would have been shocked if they upgraded Gonzalo to a hurricane.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#66 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 04, 2021 1:18 pm

galaxy401 wrote:The NHC site has labeled Gonzalo as “Subtropical Storm Gonzalo” which confused me for a bit but it never became subtropical.


They fixed it.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#67 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 10, 2021 12:33 pm

Tropical Storms Fausto and Karina are up.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#68 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Feb 10, 2021 6:01 pm

Fausto only lasted 6 hours. Only a few Tropical Storms have lasted just 6 hours as most of the short-lived ones are usually 12 hours.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#69 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:17 am

Hurricane Hanna report is up. The peak intensity was 80kts with 973 mbs and gained 1.6 ACE units.

Image

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Re: 2020 TCRs

#70 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:31 pm

Tropical Storm Kyle is up.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#71 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 19, 2021 11:05 am

Hurricane Marie is up. Peak intensity was 120 kts.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#72 Postby aspen » Fri Feb 19, 2021 2:51 pm

cycloneye wrote:Hurricane Marie is up. Peak intensity was 120 kts.

I think that’s the first significant post-season intensity upgrade (aside from 07E) so far. I wonder if Genevieve will have any changes.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#73 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Feb 23, 2021 12:52 pm

Gamma will be posted next as 70knot hurricane. This is a prediction.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#74 Postby Fancy1001 » Tue Feb 23, 2021 3:59 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Gamma will be posted next as 70knot hurricane. This is a prediction.

I'm going to be so pissed if they make Laura 135 knots instead of 137 or above. If they're going to tease us like that I would rather they keep it at 130.

Same with Eta but even more so.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#75 Postby Weather Dude » Tue Feb 23, 2021 4:02 pm

Fancy1001 wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Gamma will be posted next as 70knot hurricane. This is a prediction.

I'm going to be so pissed if they make Laura 135 knots instead of 137 or above. If they're going to tease us like that I would rather they keep it at 130.

Same with Eta but even more so.

Neither Laura or Eta is getting upgraded. Laura definitely wasn't a Cat 5. I think Eta was, but there's no solid evidence that the NHC can use to upgrade
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#76 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Feb 23, 2021 4:45 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
Fancy1001 wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Gamma will be posted next as 70knot hurricane. This is a prediction.

I'm going to be so pissed if they make Laura 135 knots instead of 137 or above. If they're going to tease us like that I would rather they keep it at 130.

Same with Eta but even more so.

Neither Laura or Eta is getting upgraded. Laura definitely wasn't a Cat 5. I think Eta was, but there's no solid evidence that the NHC can use to upgrade


Laura has no conclusive evidence supporting higher than 135 kt - that's the ceiling. They may leave it at 130, although there's decent evidence for 135.

I have a feeling they will go with 135 for Eta, although I do think it probably was 140-145 but the Recon troubles that day mean they have so little data to work with and it would probably be called inconclusive.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#77 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Feb 24, 2021 9:27 am

The most controversial storm of the decade so far, Eta. A storm everyone thought was Cat 5 before recon moved in, this storm was defiant of all by refusing to increase to 140knots. Surrounded by a CMG, a greater than 100C temperature difference was observed. However there was on significant factor inhibiting the windspeed. The eyewall never could close higher in altitude. What this means is that the storm was much more susceptible to an ERC without a true eyewall. While impressive on top, the core never reached its full potential and was cut off resulting in a larger swath of peak winds but a degredation in the true peak BEFORE the ERC. Even a partial second eyewall severely limited the power of the storm because it immediately overpowered the inner eyewall before the winds caught up with the satellite presentation and BEFORE the inner eyewall could fully close along the full height of the storm. We could not see this on satellite yet so that is why it baffled us. This is the conclusion I have come upon as I pondered Eta.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#78 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 24, 2021 4:30 pm

Tropical Storm Edouard is up. The peak was 40 kts.

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Re: 2020 TCRs

#79 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Feb 24, 2021 6:13 pm

Now that we got most of the boring weak storms out of the way in the Atlantic, that just leaves the more notable ones now. Going to be interesting to see what they have in store.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#80 Postby aspen » Wed Feb 24, 2021 8:37 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Now that we got most of the boring weak storms out of the way in the Atlantic, that just leaves the more notable ones now. Going to be interesting to see what they have in store.

I believe Fay, Vicky, Gamma, and Theta are the last tropical storms left for post-analysis. Gamma is decently likely to get upgraded to a hurricane; satellite presentation kept improving in the several hours between the final recon pass and landfall, and it was already nearing hurricane status during that pass.
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