2020 TCRs: Gamma upgraded to Hurricane

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aspen
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#81 Postby aspen » Wed Mar 03, 2021 9:56 am

We might still have a while to go before any of the TCRs for the big storms of 2020 are published. The reports for Maria, Florence, Michael, and Dorian didn’t come out until April or May (Harvey and Irma came out in January and March), and there were a lot more big ones in 2020 that will require a lot of time for post-season analysis: Isaias, Laura, Sally, Delta, Zeta, Eta, and Iota. Paulette, Teddy, and Epsilon, while not particularly impactful, were long-lasting systems with a ton of recon data to go through, and all have the potential for significant intensity changes during parts of their track.

I’m guessing Fay, Marco, and Gamma will be some of the next storms up. Both had moderate impacts and only lasted several days. The long-lasting but not very impactful recon storms (Paulette, Teddy, Epsilon) will probably follow a few weeks after. As for the Big Ones, I think that Laura, Eta, and Iota will be the final storms released, due to their longevity, high intensity, surplus of recon and ground-based data, and massive land impacts.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#82 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Mar 03, 2021 11:46 am

aspen wrote:We might still have a while to go before any of the TCRs for the big storms of 2020 are published. The reports for Maria, Florence, Michael, and Dorian didn’t come out until April or May (Harvey and Irma came out in January and March), and there were a lot more big ones in 2020 that will require a lot of time for post-season analysis: Isaias, Laura, Sally, Delta, Zeta, Eta, and Iota. Paulette, Teddy, and Epsilon, while not particularly impactful, were long-lasting systems with a ton of recon data to go through, and all have the potential for significant intensity changes during parts of their track.

I’m guessing Fay, Marco, and Gamma will be some of the next storms up. Both had moderate impacts and only lasted several days. The long-lasting but not very impactful recon storms (Paulette, Teddy, Epsilon) will probably follow a few weeks after. As for the Big Ones, I think that Laura, Eta, and Iota will be the final storms released, due to their longevity, high intensity, surplus of recon and ground-based data, and massive land impacts.

I hate to say it but we will wait a little while longer.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#83 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 05, 2021 2:26 pm

Tropical Storm Vicky is up and the peak was 45 kt.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#84 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Mar 08, 2021 9:24 am

I think sally will get a bump to Cat 3.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#85 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Mar 08, 2021 4:48 pm

There are 52 TCR's to write this year (31 Atlantic and 21 EPAC), barring any unnamed storms added in. I think it will be the end of May before this is all done.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#86 Postby aspen » Mon Mar 08, 2021 6:15 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:There are 52 TCR's to write this year (31 Atlantic and 21 EPAC), barring any unnamed storms added in. I think it will be the end of May before this is all done.

I’d say there’s a decent chance we get the first named storm of 2021 before all the TCRs are done.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#87 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 17, 2021 6:48 pm

Tropical Storm Polo is up.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#88 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 18, 2021 4:54 pm

Tropical Storm Norbert is up.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#89 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Mar 18, 2021 5:03 pm

Hernan is up too. That just leaves Genevieve and Odalys as the only EPAC systems left without a report.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#90 Postby MarioProtVI » Sat Mar 27, 2021 12:09 pm

It is now almost the end of March and there are still over a dozen TCRs for the Atlantic left and haven’t seen a report for an Atlantic storm in weeks now. Wonder what’s taking so long, as usually several of the big ones are usually out by now for a given season. Maybe WMO and the Greek stuff held them up?
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#91 Postby aspen » Sat Mar 27, 2021 12:33 pm

MarioProtVI wrote:It is now almost the end of March and there are still over a dozen TCRs for the Atlantic left and haven’t seen a report for an Atlantic storm in weeks now. Wonder what’s taking so long, as usually several of the big ones are usually out by now for a given season. Maybe WMO and the Greek stuff held them up?

Probably work on all of the impactful storms of 2020 — Isaias, Laura, Sally, Delta, Zeta, Eta, and Iota. All had significant land impacts that are going to require a ton of time to go over. Even 2017 only had half as many Big Ones.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#92 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 27, 2021 1:05 pm

aspen wrote:
MarioProtVI wrote:It is now almost the end of March and there are still over a dozen TCRs for the Atlantic left and haven’t seen a report for an Atlantic storm in weeks now. Wonder what’s taking so long, as usually several of the big ones are usually out by now for a given season. Maybe WMO and the Greek stuff held them up?

Probably work on all of the impactful storms of 2020 — Isaias, Laura, Sally, Delta, Zeta, Eta, and Iota. All had significant land impacts that are going to require a ton of time to go over. Even 2017 only had half as many Big Ones.


And Gamma to see if it was briefly a hurricane.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#93 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Mar 27, 2021 1:12 pm

Yeah. Also happy birthday Annularcane!
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#94 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Mar 27, 2021 1:46 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Yeah. Also happy birthday Annularcane!



Thanks! :D
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#95 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Mar 29, 2021 8:27 pm

We now have Fay up.

No real change. I was wondering if they would call it a TC in the Gulf entering Florida, the answer is no...not sustained enough.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#96 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Mar 31, 2021 2:07 pm

Marco and Delta now up.

Marco did NOT make landfall in Louisiana. The MLC did, but the LLC remained offshore based on surface observations. It was still a TC at that time though (something I disagree with - I'd have called it remnant low).

Delta's peak intensity, as expected, was lowered to 120 kt.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#97 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Mar 31, 2021 2:15 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Marco and Delta now up.

Marco did NOT make landfall in Louisiana. The MLC did, but the LLC remained offshore based on surface observations. It was still a TC at that time though (something I disagree with - I'd have called it remnant low).

Delta's peak intensity, as expected, was lowered to 120 kt.

Marco's genesis was also delayed by 18 hours, a decision I agree with.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#98 Postby aspen » Wed Mar 31, 2021 2:30 pm

Fay, Marco, and Delta all within 48 hours. The NHC is really picking up the pace with the TCRs now. I’m guessing they got a good amount done in that several week gap between reports and a bunch more are going to be released.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#99 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Mar 31, 2021 2:38 pm

aspen wrote:Fay, Marco, and Delta all within 48 hours. The NHC is really picking up the pace with the TCRs now. I’m guessing they got a good amount done in that several week gap between reports and a bunch more are going to be released.


I'd expect a few more in the next little bit - if I were to guess the next ones would be Paulette, Teddy, Beta, Gamma and Theta.
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Re: 2020 TCRs

#100 Postby FrontRunner » Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:41 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:Marco's genesis was also delayed by 18 hours, a decision I agree with.


I was surprised to see that in the report. That's got to be exceedingly rare, right?

I don't recall the specifics of Marco....what do you think led them to start issuing advisories earlier in real time but then delay genesis in the end? I only skimmed the report but didn't see them elaborate on that decision.
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