When Will Gonzalo Form?

[aspen]

The CFS has been hinting that a TC could form at the very end of July or beginning of August from an AEW. Perhaps that’ll be Gonzalo and the switch to deep tropics development. If so, it’ll be a close call between those who voted for July 21-31 and August 1-10.

[cycloneye]

The poll is still open and will remain that way until July 15 at 11:51 AM EDT so those who have not voted yet come and do so.

[FireRat]

went with July 21-31, best guess on 7/25. I think there could be an MDR storm, the first one of the season late this month, but if this fails to occur, who knows we might still get another homegrown TS by then anyway before the real season kicks in!
Gonzalo should result from one of these scenarios

[DioBrando]

i voted august 1-10, just let the dust settle down first!

i think this will be the first mdr hurricane of the year

the name also sounds pretty ominous, ngl

[Hammy]

Going with first ten days of August but most likely timeframe I feel is Jul 30-Aug 3 based on CFS.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

By the second half of the month, the MJO and CCKW, along with warmer sea surface temperatures should allow for some development.

[chaser1]

Whether the present wave off Africa or one to follow, I'm increasingly confident that the embryonic origin for our next named T.S. will be from the MDR rather then "home-grown" in nature. At the same time, I'm less confident that Gonzalo will be our first hurricane this season and it might just be that first somewhat sputtering T.S. coming out from the ITCZ while overall basin conditions might still be shaking out Uncle Sal from his favorite musty chair.

[cycloneye]

The poll has closed with the July 21-31 option as the most voted by a landslide with 63%.

[TheStormExpert]

I got that funny feeling that Gonzalo will likely form before months end. Likely in the Tropical Atlantic or SW Atlantic.

[chaser1]

As 99L continues to impress this morning, all signals point toward the majority of us within this poll being correct. At this rate we may well have Gonzalo in a day or two.

[HurricaneEnzo]

My vote is for today

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like today’s the day and Thursday for Hanna

[chaser1]

Looks like today’s the day and Thursday for Hanna

Oh jeez, now THAT would really send shock-waves throughout the weather community (as well as in the news).

[aspen]

I’m thinking somewhere between July 16th and 23rd, either in the Gulf/NW Caribbean or the MDR, and it’ll be the first hurricane of the year. Probably nothing huge (it is still July after all), but more substantial than Arthur-Fay. I’m mainly basing this off of the latest EPS ensembles, the possibility of increased AEWs mid/late month due to an MJO over Africa, and the untapped supply of high SSTs and ocean heat in the western Gulf/NW Caribbean.

Looks like I might’ve gotten it right. Just need to see what 99L is going to do, and whether it’ll live up to the more aggressive models or not.

[chaser1]

I’m thinking somewhere between July 16th and 23rd, either in the Gulf/NW Caribbean or the MDR, and it’ll be the first hurricane of the year. Probably nothing huge (it is still July after all), but more substantial than Arthur-Fay. I’m mainly basing this off of the latest EPS ensembles, the possibility of increased AEWs mid/late month due to an MJO over Africa, and the untapped supply of high SSTs and ocean heat in the western Gulf/NW Caribbean.

Looks like I might’ve gotten it right. Just need to see what 99L is going to do, and whether it’ll live up to the more aggressive models or not.

Yep, that was a pretty tight narrow window you predicted. Still, if this were horse-shoes I "might" have you beat LOL! (repeated from my other thread post):

Re Talkin Tropics Thread: Will any named storms form in the MDR in July?

#11 Postby chaser1 » Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:52 am

Yes, on July 21 at 10.7N & 46.5W with an estimated 1006 mb pressure (one day following the New Moon)

(tbh though, as impressive as 99L is looking today I still don't think it's quite at T.S. yet. I'd be surprised to see NHC tag it Gonzalo until tomorrow)

[stpeteweathergal]

Purely a WAG for 8/11-8/20. There's something about the 13th that lures me.

Now that would suggest a more reasonable mid-season lull between now and then. If you are right, I'd guess Gonzalo would be a far cry different from the previous weak storms we've seen so far as well as form further to the east.

My guess didn't win this poll. It's fun to play anyways.

[northjaxpro]

July 21

Well, I missed by 10 hours, since it was finally named by NHC at 10 a.m. this morning.

Pretty good!

[TheStormExpert]

At this rate probably the last third of this month. Maybe in the Western Tropical Atlantic approaching the Lesser Antilles but I wouldn’t be surprised to see yet another storm form off the U.S. East Coast. My guess on intensity is anywhere from a mid-grade TS to Cat.1 hurricane.

I did good!