Surface trough Extending NE from the Bahamas

[BYG Jacob]

GCANE and Aric have both mentioned the area today, and it does look interesting. Really well defined MLC

[toad strangler]

That's East of the Bahamas let alone FL

[Hurricaneman]

Needs to be watched but I don’t expect it to develop into a tropical cyclone as it has no model support but a few storms in the past have had no model support and developed anyway but is an interesting area nonetheless

[tropicwatch]

That's East of the Bahamas let alone FL

Actually the vorticity is north of the Bahamas and east of Florida. Most of the convection is east of the Bahamas.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor5&zoom=&time=

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/13/GOES16-EUS-13-1000x1000.gif

[northjaxpro]

FWIW, 850mb vorticity in the vicinity of the NW Bahamas has increased a bit since yesterday's analysis. This is the tail end left in the wake of Fay, which has evolved into a trough down there.

We will see. Sometimes systems can and have developed with little to no model support.

I will say that if convection persists through the weekend down there , then it may be something the models may pick.up.on with time. Any noticeable vorticity in the tropics ALWAYS need a wary eye for sure.

htttp://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

[northjaxpro]

Vorticity hanging tough in the vicinity of the Northwest Bahamas and actually gradually increasing. This area is stuck in a COL , in between two huge High Pressures, the A/B ridge to its east/northeast, and the big ridge over Eastern TX / NW Gulf region.

The vorticity has persisted over that area for over 48 hours now. It is also sitting over very warm ssts and shear currently is marginable, with a strong shear axis just east of the Bahamas. with a ridge axis sitting across the North Gulf region. Surface pressures around 1012 mb noted near the NW Bahamas earlier this morning...

Just watching the area out of curiosity. Still not much from the models yet......

[Aric Dunn]

Just rehashing what was said before.. though models are not showing this now.

but they were several days ago.

being that the convection has just developed from the overnight the vorticity maps are not exactly going to be all that accurate.

if convection continues like this all day then chances of something coming together go up.

we already have a sharp wave axis at the surface.

[Aric Dunn]

oh wait.. I am talking about the wave north of PR..

the trough NE of bahamas I am less curious about.. ill keep posting in the model thread for now.

[northjaxpro]

Actually Aric, convection has pulsated and maintained since yesterday morning there. I am not anticipating development, but I have a rule iof thumb pertaining to the tropics : Any noticeable vorticity that can be tracked merits some type of attention, model support or not!

[Aric Dunn]

Actually Aric, convection has pulsated and maintained since yesterday morning there.

I am talking about the wave that just moved north of PR overnight.. it was dry as it went through islands and exploded overnight..

the trough in the bahamas not really interested in.