Tropical Wave Over the Bahamas/Cuba (Is Invest 91L)

[NDG]

We'll be watching this tropical wave as it tracks westward towards the Bahamas, S FL and into the GOM over the next days. This the TW that the latest GFS develops into a weak TS in the GOM.

[NDG]

GEFS support increasing during the past few runs.

[NDG]

The Euro does not develop maybe because it keeps the mid & ULL ahead of it too close to the surface trough/vorticity, but it shows the TW nicely on its simulated vis sat forecast, blossoming as it nears western Bahamas/FL into the GOM Sunday into early next week.

[Aric Dunn]

Hey look someone started a thread.. lol


If it stays just a little farther north and does not ride the coast of the Greater Antilles then I would imagine the Euro would probably start jumping on board.

ICON was developing it.. but now has the vorticity also interacting with the islands..

have to watch closely..since all models show convection increasing as it approaches the SE bahamas.

[Aric Dunn]

00z CMC nearly develops it as it crosses florida and heads to New Orleans.

[TheStormExpert]

Should get a mention by the NHC next week once it gets near Florida assuming model support doesn’t completely drop.

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
735 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed along 61W/62W, from 20N
southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Widely scattered
showers are moving across the Lesser Antilles and the adjacent
Atlantic waters north through northeast, otherwise no significant
convection is associated with this wave.

(thread has been cleaned up to remove references/dicussion of a trailng t-wave)

[NDG]

This TW has lost just about all support for development in the GOM in the past 24 hrs, just a couple of GFS and Euro members show weak development before approaching the TX coast next week.

[Aric Dunn]

Well I would not count it out just yet.

if you notice the models run this wave down the middle of Hispaniola and now the entire length of Cuba.. not surprised the models lose it.

However, the wave axis is clearly not that far south. looks like it will go north of Hispaniola which would bring us back to the GFS runs.

[Aric Dunn]

Models definitely have the wave axis placed wrong by quite a bit..

along with cloud tracking the wave axis TPW also shows it well north of where the GFS has it.






6z GFS has it well south mostly in the Carrib.

So assuming in later model runs the wave axis and vorticity are initialized correctly. we will probably see a return to development.

[Aric Dunn]

GFS for the 12z RUN again has the wave/vorticity mostly over PR and in the Carrib which is not the case. which is odd.

The 12z ICON is back to having a stronger 850 mb vort again though.

[Aric Dunn]

925mb Vorticity is showing it in the correct area but the models dont seem to have a handle on much of anything east of the US lately.

[Aric Dunn]

After running the vorticity through the middle of Hispaniola and Cuba slightly farther south than the last run..

GFS squeaks in a possible TD before texas.

[NDG]

Models definitely have the wave axis placed wrong by quite a bit..

along with cloud tracking the wave axis TPW also shows it well north of where the GFS has it.

https://i.ibb.co/gWhGd6m/Capture2.png

https://i.ibb.co/yBc4qN8/LABELS-19700101-000000.gif

Yes, definitely the vorticity is further north than where the models have it.

6z GFS has it well south mostly in the Carrib.

So assuming in later model runs the wave axis and vorticity are initialized correctly. we will probably see a return to development.

https://i.ibb.co/VQ7dCcp/Capture.png

[Aric Dunn]

12z Euro finally has it in the right location. lets see what happens..

[toad strangler]

12z Euro was unimpressed

[AJC3]

TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located over eastern Hispaniola and the adjacent
waters of the southwestern Atlantic is expected to move
west-northwestward over the next several days and enter the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday, and then move across
the central Gulf on Wednesday and reach the northwestern Gulf on
Thursday. This disturbance is currently producing only minimal
shower activity, but environmental conditions are expected to become
at least marginally conducive for development by Wednesday or
Thursday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[GCANE]

GFS was on this last couple days.
Lost it today.

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1284789025883201537

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located over Hispaniola and the adjacent waters of
the southwestern Atlantic is expected to move west-northwestward
over the next several days and enter the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico by late Tuesday, and then move across the central Gulf on
Wednesday and reach the northwestern Gulf on Thursday. This
disturbance is currently producing disorganized shower activity,
but environmental conditions are expected to become at least
marginally conducive for development by Wednesday or Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven