actually most of the mesoscale models produce a large convective arc that develops in the straights overnight and expands north. that forces the trough to sharpen and the left side of the arc starts closing off in as little as 18 to 24 hours..
tomorrow looks to be an interesting day on radar..
Tropical Wave Over the Bahamas/Cuba (Is Invest 91L)
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Tropical Wave Over the Bahamas/Cuba
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Tropical Wave Over the Bahamas/Cuba
NAM just jumped up a couple tick marks for 00z.. and develops earlier
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2100&fh=43
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2100&fh=43
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Tropical Wave Over the Bahamas/Cuba
NAM 48 hours..
pressure 999mb upper ridge over head..
pressure 999mb upper ridge over head..
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NXStumpy_Robothing
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Re: Tropical Wave Over the Bahamas/Cuba
Aric Dunn wrote:NAM 48 hours..
pressure 999mb upper ridge over head..
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020072100/nam3km_ir_seus_49.png
The NAM is known for being notoriously overeager on tropical cyclones. While such a scenario is possible, I find the solution it's presenting to be somewhat unlikely. For mesoscale models, the HRRR is a better option.
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Undergraduate Meteorology Student, Georgia Institute of Technology
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Tropical Wave Over the Bahamas/Cuba
NXStumpy_Robothing wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:NAM 48 hours..
pressure 999mb upper ridge over head..
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020072100/nam3km_ir_seus_49.png
The NAM is known for being notoriously overeager on tropical cyclones. While such a scenario is possible, I find the solution it's presenting to be somewhat unlikely. For mesoscale models, the HRRR is a better option.
True..
it has also been showing little to nothing until this run..
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:13 am, edited 2 times in total.
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TheProfessor
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Re: Tropical Wave Over the Bahamas/Cuba
The NAM is an okay model to used for noticing differences in mesoscale features. It's shouldn't be used for tropical cyclone formation or intensity, but it can sometimes be helpful in noticing smaller scale features that could influence the storm's track that the global models aren't picking up on or just can't see.
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An alumnus of The Ohio State University.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
Re: Tropical Wave Over the Bahamas/Cuba
0z GFS gets the system to depression status, or at least very close to a depression.
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floridasun78
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Re: Tropical Wave Over the Bahamas/Cuba
we here in south fl getting good rain from tropical wave tonight
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Re: Tropical Wave Over the Bahamas/Cuba
Does the Euro shunt this thing west into Corpus Christi? I swear Ive forgotten what dynamic I used for the Euro. 
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Tropical Wave Over the Bahamas/Cuba
SoupBone wrote:Does the Euro shunt this thing west into Corpus Christi? I swear Ive forgotten what dynamic I used for the Euro.
Port O’Connor. Well north of Corpus Christi.
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Re: Tropical Wave Over the Bahamas/Cuba
Starting to pull in high TPW air from the West Carib.
Once the LL vort hits the water, this could get ugly quickly.
Once the LL vort hits the water, this could get ugly quickly.
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Re: Tropical Wave Over the Bahamas/Cuba
Going to be sliding under a developing ridge by the time it tracks into the west GoM.
Depending how strong the vort is and how far south it is, it'll begin to suck up moisture from the EPAC.
The area SE of Houston always has the highest CAPE in the GoM.
Some surprises may be ahead, stay tuned.
Depending how strong the vort is and how far south it is, it'll begin to suck up moisture from the EPAC.
The area SE of Houston always has the highest CAPE in the GoM.
Some surprises may be ahead, stay tuned.
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Re: Tropical Wave Over the Bahamas/Cuba
CMC pretty much nailed 99L in terms of genesis.
Genesis in the GoM tomorrow.
Genesis in the GoM tomorrow.
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Re: Tropical Wave Over the Bahamas/Cuba
Watching convection over the Midwest last few days draws me to one conclusion:
All Mesoscale Models suck.
All Mesoscale Models suck.
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Ivanhater
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Re: Tropical Wave Over the Bahamas/Cuba
The 00z Euro even seems to strengthen this over Texas
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Michael
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Tropical Wave Over the Bahamas/Cuba
If you want to believe the HRRR suite .. probably should since it has been dead on with genesis this season..
look west of Key west with that cluster of convection..
they have something beginning to close off west of key west by EOD and into this evening..
look west of Key west with that cluster of convection..
they have something beginning to close off west of key west by EOD and into this evening..
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Tropical Wave Over the Bahamas/Cuba
and actually looking at key west radar ... the low level flow has already shifted from the SSE where yesterday everything from eastern cuba to western cuba was straight easterly flow.
watch for convection to bubble up today just west of Key west and the vorticity quickly increase.
should be tagged and invest this morning.
watch for convection to bubble up today just west of Key west and the vorticity quickly increase.
should be tagged and invest this morning.
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Extratropical94
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Re: Tropical Wave Over the Bahamas/Cuba
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms over western Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas,
southern Florida, and the adjacent Atlantic and Caribbean
waters. Gradual development of this system is possible while it
moves west-northwestward during the next few days. This system is
expected to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later today,
the central Gulf on Wednesday, and the northwestern Gulf on
Thursday and Friday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
and thunderstorms over western Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas,
southern Florida, and the adjacent Atlantic and Caribbean
waters. Gradual development of this system is possible while it
moves west-northwestward during the next few days. This system is
expected to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later today,
the central Gulf on Wednesday, and the northwestern Gulf on
Thursday and Friday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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