Tropical Wave near 42W (Is Invest 99L)

[CyclonicFury]

This elongated area of disturbed weather (likely partially associated with a tropical wave near 37W) has some model support from the GFS, CMC, JMA and ICON for some potential slight development. So far it has not been mentioned by NHC.

[TheProfessor]

If this is the wave that the 0z Canadian is developing then whew boy, it's quite a bit stronger through the Caribbean this run before slightly weakening as it passes through Jamaica and then intensifying again into a tropical storm as it enters the GoM.

[USTropics]

Currently observed there are 5 active AEWs in the Atlantic, highlighted wave axes below in pink:

[USTropics]

Current analysis of the 00z runs you can see the stretched area of vorticity from the above satellite image:


We'll know in the next 24 hours if the CMC's solution is correct. The GFS isn't as robust with the low-level development as the CMC in the next 24 hours; it attempts to consolidate but multiple areas of low pressure slows this process (whereas the CMC consolidates within the next 24 hours).

0-36 hour 00z CMC run:


0-36 hour 00z GFS run:

[GCANE]

Latest CMC puts it in the Danger Zone
Spins it up today.

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

GFS already has it initialized
All Globals are spinning this up today.

[GCANE]

Strongest 700mb vort at 8.5N 35.9W
African Easterly Jet has moved significantly south.
Excellent UL Divergence over this.

The repositioning of the AEJ is very significant.
Opens the door for more AEW development down the road.
Models already spinning another up in less than 144 hrs.

[GCANE]

GFS loses this 108 hrs out on Thursday what appears to be interaction with a weak ULL.
CMC doesn't think so.
Stay tuned.

[GCANE]

Following the wave using TPW, GFS takes it into the BoC on the 28th without any spin up.
CMC takes it thru the Yucatan Channel into the GoM as a closed surface low.

[alan1961]

Yes GFS has a reflection on this at 48 hours and CMC is identical too but keeps it running
through the islands then loses it around jamaica, something to watch

[tailgater]

Visible satellite images showing at least 3 areas of rotation from 38 west back to 33 west, so I don’t really see a quick ramp up today but very interested in this area probably should be lemoned on next TWO.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like we have a pretty decent Vort/Circ ( middle of the loop) and a buckle in the ITCZ.

watch for some concentrated convection around that circ. It will of course take some time to break off ffrom the ITCZ so convection will have to build,.

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

West Carib is more than capable of spinning up a Cat 5

[Aric Dunn]

I see the UKMET jumped on board for development with the 00z run.

[AutoPenalti]

It’s really trying which is impressive under such hostile conditions.

[AutoPenalti]

Canadian has a weak TS nearing the Antilles...

[SconnieCane]

Looking very possible we'll burn through at least one or two more names before July is out, at this rate the "I" name might be used up before the first long-tracking MDR MH beast. Or it will be the first such storm of the season.

[CyclonicFury]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1284912221794062336




FWIW the 12z Euro is now developing this: