Will 2020 reach the Greek Alphabet names in the Atlantic?

[Ken711]

I think it will be close to getting to Greeks, might get there might not. But what is far more important is storm QUALITY not QUANITY. 1 cat 5 is far greater than 50 tropical depressions. Storm strength is the big question this season. Isaias was in an area where you would typically expect a storm to strengthen and at least be a cat 1.

It's very important to remember approximately 85% of Category 3+ hurricanes in the Atlantic are after August 20.

That's a pretty scary statistic given we are only at August 2.

[EquusStorm]

Only 12 names left on the list at the start of August is incredible. Notably, last year had SIXTEEN named storms past this point, and that's with an August that was totally dead until the last 10-11 days. So last year's level of named storms would get us to Delta I think

[TheStormExpert]

Only 12 names left on the list at the start of August is incredible. Notably, last year had SIXTEEN named storms past this point, and that's with an August that was totally dead until the last 10-11 days. So last year's level of named storms would get us to Delta I think

I wouldn’t rule out getting through Zeta at least, but we would have to keep tying or out beating 2005’s records. I think it’s possible but not 100% sure.

[EquusStorm]

Yeah passing 2005 would require insane amount of post-September activity probably; it's certainly possible but I won't count on it unless things stay crazy and not let up

[tolakram]

I think we'll get to the end of the list, but not sure we will go as late as 2005 did. I'll say no Greek alphabet names.

Honestly I really don't know nor do I suspect anyone does. Fun guessing though!

[mlfreeman]

I think it's entirely possible this year and it may happen more often now.

To me, it seems like GOES-16 going live has resulted in NHC detecting more borderline tropical systems and using up names on them.

The NHC can now see things that have to be named under their rules that used to escape detection.

[CrazyC83]

Only 12 names left on the list at the start of August is incredible. Notably, last year had SIXTEEN named storms past this point, and that's with an August that was totally dead until the last 10-11 days. So last year's level of named storms would get us to Delta I think

I wouldn’t rule out getting through Zeta at least, but we would have to keep tying or out beating 2005’s records. I think it’s possible but not 100% sure.

If we maintained the same pace as 2005 the rest of the way, we'd get to Iota. (Ugh, another "I" storm...)

[arkestra]

Is is possible to retire the name of a « Greek storm »?

[CrazyC83]

Is is possible to retire the name of a « Greek storm »?

No. The WMO explicitly said after 2005 they would leave the name on the list, but mention it as notable with an asterisk. If there was a really devastating Greek name, they might reconsider it.

[HurricaneEdouard]

And for those who might think a really devastating Greek name is unlikely, don't forget that if the NHC hadn't missed the October subtropical storm they classified in post-season analysis, the most powerful hurricane in Atlantic history - Wilma - would have been correctly named "Alpha." Hurricane Beta (Gamma, if it had received its correct name) had the potential to be as damaging a rainmaker for Nicaragua as the very similar (in track, intensity and time of year) Otto, as well, which was retired.

[arkestra]

And for those who might think a really devastating Greek name is unlikely, don't forget that if the NHC hadn't missed the October subtropical storm they classified in post-season analysis, the most powerful hurricane in Atlantic history - Wilma - would have been correctly named "Alpha." Hurricane Beta (Gamma, if it had received its correct name) had the potential to be as damaging a rainmaker for Nicaragua as the very similar (in track, intensity and time of year) Otto, as well, which was retired.

That was precisely what I had in mind when I asked my question.

[EquusStorm]

It would have certainly been highly ironically appropriate for the most intense hurricane in the basin on record to be literally the Alpha hurricane.

[CyclonicFury]

Dr. Philip Klotzbach seems to think so.

[CrazyC83]

If there was ever a Hurricane Omega, it really should be the strongest storm not just in Atlantic history, but world history.

[CyclonicFury]

It's looking quite likely if the Atlantic continues at the current pace. We've already had 13 named storms, so only 9 more would be needed to reach Alpha. We would get there with 5 named storms in September, 3 in October, and 1 in November, and it's quite possible the rest of the season could be even more active than that.

[CrazyC83]

Updating the trends to September 1 at 2359Z. Using the number of storms we've had up to this point (15) and what each season from 1995 to 2019 had from September onward, we'd end up at with a similar pace as now (bold = Greek):

1995 - 7 (Alpha)
1996 - 6 (Wilfred)
1997 - 3 (Sally)
1998 - 9 (Gamma)
1999 - 7 (Alpha)
2000 - 11 (Epsilon)
2001 - 11 (Epsilon)
2002 - 8 (Beta)
2003 - 9 (Gamma)
2004 - 7 (Alpha)
2005 - 16 (Kappa)
2006 - 4 (Teddy)
2007 - 9 (Gamma)
2008 - 7 (Alpha)
2009 - 4 (Teddy)
2010 - 12 (Zeta)
2011 - 7 (Alpha)
2012 - 7 (Alpha)
2013 - 8 (Beta)
2014 - 5 (Vicky)
2015 - 5 (Vicky)
2016 - 7 (Alpha)
2017 - 8 (Beta)
2018 - 9 (Gamma)
2019 - 13 (Eta)

19 out of 25 years from 1995 to 2019 had a pace from September 2 onward that would get us into the Greek letters in 2020.

[CyclonicFury]

7 to go...

[EquusStorm]

September 1, with almost two thirds of the season to go climatologically, and just six names left. Honestly gonna be hard to avoid at this point without going abnormally quiet and this season hasn't wanted to do much of that since June

[CrazyC83]

7 to go...

That puts a pace of 1995, 1999, 2002, 2004, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2016 and 2017 all on Greek pace too. As for 2005's pace, we'd end up at Kappa.

[sma10]

7 to go...

That puts a pace of 1995, 1999, 2002, 2004, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2016 and 2017 all on Greek pace too. As for 2005's pace, we'd end up at Kappa.

At this point, it would be an upset if we don't make the Greek alphabet. Even the Euro, which has been notably shy this season, churns out Paulette, Rene and Sally by the 11th