Strong Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 92L)

[AutoPenalti]

How can we trust this model when it doesn’t even pick up on Gonzalo? After it’s screwup with Dorian it’s lost my trust.

You don't TRUST models.. You USE models. They are tools ... some have different bias and weakness then others.

Well we can’t use a model that has bad input! That’s why I don’t consider it a top-tier global model.

Well to be fair, no models have been "top-tier" so far. They have struggled with basic TCG.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Pretty close agreement between the Euro, ICON, and UKMET although the timing is a bit off.

[Hammy]

12z Icon...

https://iili.io/dIzzkF.gif

How can we trust this model when it doesn’t even pick up on Gonzalo? After it’s screwup with Dorian it’s lost my trust.

You don't TRUST models.. You USE models. They are tools ... some have different bias and weakness then others.

ICON is almost never factored into NHC forecasts because it's not particularly useful with hurricanes. This same model took Dorian south of Cuba once it was north of Puerto Rico when everything else was already starting to miss Florida to the east.

Personally I look mostly at GFS, CMC, and Euro, and a good rule of thumb over the last few seasons--if the GFS is the only one of those two that doesn't show development, especially in the shorter term, development is likely. If the Euro is the only one that does show development, then it's unlikely.

[TheStormExpert]

Goes over Hispaniola between days 7 and 8 and re-emerges the NW coast as a 1000mb low.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Goes over Hispaniola between days 7 and 8 and re-emerges the NW coast as a 1000mb low.

Georges vibes from this run, albeit probably not nearly as intense.

[toad strangler]

The Shredder Shreds this run. Too far out.

[STRiZZY]

The Shredder Shreds this run. Too far out.

Emerges into the Florida Straits at 240hr

[SouthFLTropics]

Yep, in the Florida Straights on this run. Only thing that kept it in check from going crazy was the fact that it passed over Hispaniola. Take the islands out of the equation and South Florida has a big problem.

[STRiZZY]

Yep, in the Florida Straights on this run. Only thing that kept it in check from going crazy was the fact that it passed over Hispaniola. Take the islands out of the equation and South Florida has a big problem.

Indeed, wish it went out another 48hrs

[SFLcane]

Euro ensembles should be fun.

[SouthFLTropics]

Yep, in the Florida Straights on this run. Only thing that kept it in check from going crazy was the fact that it passed over Hispaniola. Take the islands out of the equation and South Florida has a big problem.

Indeed, wish it went out another 48hrs

We've got plenty of time to watch this. By next Friday though things may start to get real interesting down here. The South Florida media hype machine may be in full swing. They'll have something else to talk about other than COVID.

[caneseddy]

Yep, in the Florida Straights on this run. Only thing that kept it in check from going crazy was the fact that it passed over Hispaniola. Take the islands out of the equation and South Florida has a big problem.

Too early to be sure. One thing is that the euro in prior runs had it as a Caribbean cruiser but now has shifted north to the Straights/Bahamas areas like the ensembles. We shall see If it develops and if it interacts with the Shredder

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1286722596512374786

[STRiZZY]

Yep, in the Florida Straights on this run. Only thing that kept it in check from going crazy was the fact that it passed over Hispaniola. Take the islands out of the equation and South Florida has a big problem.

Indeed, wish it went out another 48hrs

We've got plenty of time to watch this. By next Friday though things may start to get real interesting down here. The South Florida media hype machine may be in full swing. They'll have something else to talk about other than COVID.

Yes please! Not wishing harm on anyone but a nice distraction from the news of the past 4 months would be a relief.

[sma10]

Euro seems to also be a bit bullish on the large wave behind as well.

By 240hr it has the lead system sitting in the FL Straits and the trailing one marching westward towards the bahamas

[OuterBanker]

Typical weaker vs stronger scenario for Euro. Yesterdays 12 had a strong system nearing the Bahamas. 00z this morning a weaker system near Yucatan channel 12 z today Fl Straights.
Odd how the GFS refuses to see it.

So far I see multiple vortices, but it does look like one wants to dominate around 12N 22 W.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 92L is up