North Central GOM

[Frank P]

Have I been staring at sat loops to long or does the NC GOM hint of another low trying to form... I do recall Steve posting some earlier model runs of something to that effect last week for this area, it might have been the ICON, happening early this week!

[EquusStorm]

Yeah multiple models showed something quickly spinning up there for a few runs. Seemed to be convective feedback at first but then a bunch picked up on it. Definitely worth keeping an eye on

[Pearl River]

I thought I could see some sort of broad rotation on radar, but figured my eyes were playing tricks on me.

[Monsoonjr99]

Seems Hanna's outer blob wants to be a TC of its own.

It's definitely sheared, but the shear is divergent thanks to the ULL over Texas. This might need to be watched for a rapid spinup, but I won't bet money on it.

[tropicwatch]

There is some pretty decent 700mb vorticity south of Louisiana but shear in the area is pretty high.

[northjaxpro]

There is some pretty decent 700mb vorticity south of Louisiana but shear in the area is pretty high.

25 KT shear will probably.keep this from coalescing.

[Frank P]

Wasn’t expecting much but this has been the year of the quick close in spin ups... thanks for the input gang

[Steve]

Wasn’t expecting much but this has been the year of the quick close in spin ups... thanks for the input gang

It doesn't look like we'll get anything classified, but if the NAM 3km depiction is close, If you run it on regular precip/mslp, north Gulf gets several arced waves originating from the south and then southwest.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 72700&fh=6

If you run it at IR, it looks like a piece of Hanna shears off and is one of those waves. Spin is inland, so we'll see. < 2% chance for anything tropical-classified, but might be some deluges. IDK.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2700&fh=51

[StPeteMike]

Had this stayed over the waters a little longer, I wouldn’t had been surprised to see a TD or weak TS spin out. A couple vortices in there, one just south of the MS/AL border and one near Baton Rouge. The latter one would had likely been the one to turn into something if given the chance to develop.

[Steve]

Yeah no doubt Mike. Both of those spins are plainly evident on satellite and radar. We have some of the dark clouds coming up on us now in Pensacola, though it hasn’t started raining here yet. What’s cool and encouraging about the forecast models was that several of them were showing this last week. One camp had a low closing off off the SCLA coast and another camp had a low spin up off the AL Coast and move toward Panama City. Kind of both scenarios are playing out.

* Until 1215 PM CDT.

* At 914 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to tropical
rains. Minor flooding is expected to begin shortly from Slidell to
Pascagoula.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Gulfport, Biloxi, Slidell, Ocean Springs, Long Beach, Moss Point,
Picayune, Bay St. Louis, Waveland, Diamondhead, St. Martin,
Escatawpa, Gautier, D`iberville, Pearl River, Kiln, Shoreline
Park, Lyman, Stennis Space Center and Pearlington.

Additional rainfall of 2 to 6 inches is expected over the area. This
additional rain will result in minor flooding. If heavy rains
persist, then Flood Warnings may be issued.

Slidell to Pascagoula is the most likely place to experience minor
flooding.

[GCANE]

Shear has dropped dramatically as an ULL, almost directly over Houston, has strengthened.
Kicker is that convection is increasing and surface winds are very weak and almost directionless.
I wonder if this may be one of those rare cases where a TC spins up under a ULL.
Keeping an eye on how long the convection persists.

[GCANE]

Convection firing along a dryline under an Upper-Level Low.
Debris from the convection feeding a large area of heavy convection to the SE of the dryline.
Strong lightning and very strong Upper-Level Divergence associated with this convection which is over water.
High-helicity towers could spin up a surface low.
Looks like this is a good setup for infeed and venting for a prolonged period of time.
Stay tuned.