Poor Performance of the Global Models During the 2020 Season

[Spacecoast]

Thanks USTropics / tolakram..

This (objective data) has certainly changed my perception of GFS-Para.
It is difficult for me to determine what a realistic expectation should be for model performance wrt genesis, tracking errors, and intensity.
I sometimes expect unrealistically high performance amongst models, even in difficult situations, so quantifyng the margin of error, and known bias is helpful.

I really do appreciate all the hard work that goes into designing these models, and algorithms.

[gatorcane]

Shall we add 96l/PTC to this list?

[BYG Jacob]

Shall we add 96l/PTC to this list?

How do you miss an area of vigorous vorticity over warm water with low shear?

[TheStormExpert]

Shall we add 96l/PTC to this list?

Definitely!! So what that’s list look like now?

[Hammy]

Shall we add 96l/PTC to this list?

How do you miss an area of vigorous vorticity over warm water with low shear?

Models seem like they're completely misreading the atmosphere this year. It's basically 2013's problem inversed--instead of models developing everything when practically nothing does, most things are developing and the models often show little to nothing or vastly under-strengthen them.

The current MDR outbreak and Cristobal are the only things the models really picked up in advance this year, and even then they're handling even the former quite poorly as far as what will strengthen and where they'll go.

[BYG Jacob]

The Euro ENS didn't even show Delta. Missing a major in the Caribbean would be on par for model performance this year