Giant Envelope Onshore Africa

[bohai]

Was looking at the eastern Atlantic IR and noticed there is a huge system located over Niger and Mali. Massive. Any model support yet? I believe it is the largest I have seen this year. Not sure how to post a pic here.

[St0rmTh0r]

Was looking at the eastern Atlantic IR and noticed there is a huge system located over Niger and Mali. Massive. Any model support yet? I believe it is the largest I have seen this year. Not sure how to post a pic here.

I saw a model run in the models three and yeah its HUGE! Definitely has to be watched. One of these storms is gonna become a monster as the peak gets closer.

[emeraldislenc]

I noticed it too. It looks huge!

[alan1961]

Will have to see how this is when it splashes into the water overnight/tomorrow,
SAL is still there but it dont look as bad as recently, if this can form and not develop
to quickly we will likely at least have another invest to watch.

[GCANE]

I believe this may be what GFS is forecasting to develop as a high-amplitude wave in the MDR, spin up in the W Carib, and at this point move into the GoM where it'll landfall somewhere close to NOLA.
Of course, this will change over the course of the coming days, but likely the next big topic to talk about.
Good catch!

[GCANE]

African Easterly Jet is taking a big dive to the south.
UL conditions nearly ideal throughout the MDR.
SAL seems to be the only issue at this point.

[GCANE]

GFS develops the wave in about 4 days at an unusually low altitude, i.e. in the boundary layer.
1000mb is depicted here

[GCANE]

GFS has it on the edge of SAL as the wave organizes.
Key will be if there is convection then firing along a dryline to make this a protected pouch.

[GCANE]

A CAG maybe setting up just about the time it gets into the W Carib

[GCANE]

Convection already firing along a dryline.
Good chance this will be a protected pouch when it hits the water.
This may be our next bad boy.

[GCANE]

Seems this is the same wave CMC has been advertising the last few days.

[cheezyWXguy]

Seems this is the same wave CMC has been advertising the last few days.

https://i.imgur.com/GAc9l56.png

Is this the same system the eps is showing, and the wave the gfs has interacting with the cag in 9 days?

[Cpv17]

Seems this is the same wave CMC has been advertising the last few days.

https://i.imgur.com/GAc9l56.png

Is this the same system the eps is showing, and the wave the gfs has interacting with the cag in 9 days?

Sure seems that way.

[AnnularCane]

Looks kind of far north right now.

[GCANE]

Seems this is the same wave CMC has been advertising the last few days.

https://i.imgur.com/GAc9l56.png

Is this the same system the eps is showing, and the wave the gfs has interacting with the cag in 9 days?

Sure seems that way.

Agree

[wxman57]

I've monitored waves that developed over the years, and I have found that the time from when a wave moves offshore Africa to the time it reaches the Gulf is about 14 days. That matches with the wave moving offshore Africa now. The 850 mb vorticity can be traced back to near the coast of Africa, too. Something to keep an eye on. Meanwhile, I'm heading out on a bike ride, as I"m off until next week. 9 comp days to use up.

[Nimbus]

Looks kind of far north right now.

The latitude of the Cape Verde wave train is closer to the equator in July, but it definitely looks like Cape Verde season has started now.
Be interesting to see where it rolls off the coast of Africa, and if that damned mid Atlantic ridge pattern finally shows signs of breaking.

[ConvergenceZone]

Is that too far North to prevent it from reaching the islands? Just curious

[St0rmTh0r]

African Easterly Jet is taking a big dive to the south.
UL conditions nearly ideal throughout the MDR.
SAL seems to be the only issue at this point.

https://i.imgur.com/N9jI3c2.png

Same thing happened in 2017 around this time. Precursor for epic Cape Verde season. People living in the islands need to prepare now. Same for US. stay safe everyone.

[DestinHurricane]

If this develops it will probably be a fish but islands should watch.