Giant Envelope Onshore Africa
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Giant Envelope Onshore Africa
Was looking at the eastern Atlantic IR and noticed there is a huge system located over Niger and Mali. Massive. Any model support yet? I believe it is the largest I have seen this year. Not sure how to post a pic here.
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Re: Giant Envelope Onshore Africa
bohai wrote:Was looking at the eastern Atlantic IR and noticed there is a huge system located over Niger and Mali. Massive. Any model support yet? I believe it is the largest I have seen this year. Not sure how to post a pic here.
I saw a model run in the models three and yeah its HUGE! Definitely has to be watched. One of these storms is gonna become a monster as the peak gets closer.
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- alan1961
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Re: Giant Envelope Onshore Africa
Will have to see how this is when it splashes into the water overnight/tomorrow,
SAL is still there but it dont look as bad as recently, if this can form and not develop
to quickly we will likely at least have another invest to watch.
SAL is still there but it dont look as bad as recently, if this can form and not develop
to quickly we will likely at least have another invest to watch.
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Re: Giant Envelope Onshore Africa
I believe this may be what GFS is forecasting to develop as a high-amplitude wave in the MDR, spin up in the W Carib, and at this point move into the GoM where it'll landfall somewhere close to NOLA.
Of course, this will change over the course of the coming days, but likely the next big topic to talk about.
Good catch!
Of course, this will change over the course of the coming days, but likely the next big topic to talk about.
Good catch!
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Re: Giant Envelope Onshore Africa
African Easterly Jet is taking a big dive to the south.
UL conditions nearly ideal throughout the MDR.
SAL seems to be the only issue at this point.
UL conditions nearly ideal throughout the MDR.
SAL seems to be the only issue at this point.
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Re: Giant Envelope Onshore Africa
GFS develops the wave in about 4 days at an unusually low altitude, i.e. in the boundary layer.
1000mb is depicted here
1000mb is depicted here
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Re: Giant Envelope Onshore Africa
GFS has it on the edge of SAL as the wave organizes.
Key will be if there is convection then firing along a dryline to make this a protected pouch.
Key will be if there is convection then firing along a dryline to make this a protected pouch.
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Re: Giant Envelope Onshore Africa
A CAG maybe setting up just about the time it gets into the W Carib
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Re: Giant Envelope Onshore Africa
Convection already firing along a dryline.
Good chance this will be a protected pouch when it hits the water.
This may be our next bad boy.
Good chance this will be a protected pouch when it hits the water.
This may be our next bad boy.
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Re: Giant Envelope Onshore Africa
Seems this is the same wave CMC has been advertising the last few days.
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- cheezyWXguy
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Re: Giant Envelope Onshore Africa
GCANE wrote:Seems this is the same wave CMC has been advertising the last few days.
https://i.imgur.com/GAc9l56.png
Is this the same system the eps is showing, and the wave the gfs has interacting with the cag in 9 days?
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Re: Giant Envelope Onshore Africa
cheezyWXguy wrote:GCANE wrote:Seems this is the same wave CMC has been advertising the last few days.
https://i.imgur.com/GAc9l56.png
Is this the same system the eps is showing, and the wave the gfs has interacting with the cag in 9 days?
Sure seems that way.
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- AnnularCane
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Re: Giant Envelope Onshore Africa
Cpv17 wrote:cheezyWXguy wrote:GCANE wrote:Seems this is the same wave CMC has been advertising the last few days.
https://i.imgur.com/GAc9l56.png
Is this the same system the eps is showing, and the wave the gfs has interacting with the cag in 9 days?
Sure seems that way.
Agree
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- wxman57
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Re: Giant Envelope Onshore Africa
I've monitored waves that developed over the years, and I have found that the time from when a wave moves offshore Africa to the time it reaches the Gulf is about 14 days. That matches with the wave moving offshore Africa now. The 850 mb vorticity can be traced back to near the coast of Africa, too. Something to keep an eye on. Meanwhile, I'm heading out on a bike ride, as I"m off until next week. 9 comp days to use up.
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Re: Giant Envelope Onshore Africa
AnnularCane wrote:Looks kind of far north right now.
The latitude of the Cape Verde wave train is closer to the equator in July, but it definitely looks like Cape Verde season has started now.
Be interesting to see where it rolls off the coast of Africa, and if that damned mid Atlantic ridge pattern finally shows signs of breaking.
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- ConvergenceZone
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Re: Giant Envelope Onshore Africa
Is that too far North to prevent it from reaching the islands? Just curious
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Re: Giant Envelope Onshore Africa
GCANE wrote:African Easterly Jet is taking a big dive to the south.
UL conditions nearly ideal throughout the MDR.
SAL seems to be the only issue at this point.
https://i.imgur.com/N9jI3c2.png
Same thing happened in 2017 around this time. Precursor for epic Cape Verde season. People living in the islands need to prepare now. Same for US. stay safe everyone.
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- DestinHurricane
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Re: Giant Envelope Onshore Africa
If this develops it will probably be a fish but islands should watch.
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