Tropical Wave over the Central Atlantic

[GCANE]

GFS currently depicting the 700mb wave axis at a strong WSW to ENE tilt.
In two days, GFS tilts the axis nearly N to S into the SAL.

[GCANE]

Mid-level water-vapor:
Firing lightning.
Some moisture intruding into the dry air to the NW.
A close in dryline.
If this expands outward, then I would say this is a protected pouch.
Stay tuned.

[CFLHurricane]

I think the NHC will lemon this by tomorrow morning after reviewing the MMIC/TPW presentation. Rotation has only grown more vigorous since yesterday and it will be approaching the Leeward Islands by the end of the weekend.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is located several hundred miles west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands. Slow development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days as it moves slowly westward.
After that time, environmental conditions are expected to become
less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[GCANE]

High-helicity tower firing from infeeds out of the NW.
Looking more likely that this is protected and possibly very well.
I hope this is not another high-helicity TC.

[wxman57]

High-helicity tower firing from infeeds out of the NW.
Looking more likely that this is protected and possibly very well.
I hope this is not another high-helicity TC.

https://i.imgur.com/HbwzjUA.png

There's an LLC on the EAST edge of that convection near 9.6N / 38.1W. Easy to see on visible. This system is embedded in the ITCZ and I don't think it's much of a development threat over the next 3-5 days. However, the wave behind it along 29W has much more energy, though it lacks convection. That one may be one to watch beyond the next 5 days.

Check out the TPW loop and look along 29W at the last frame:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=72hrs&anim=html5

[GCANE]

High-helicity tower firing from infeeds out of the NW.
Looking more likely that this is protected and possibly very well.
I hope this is not another high-helicity TC.

https://i.imgur.com/HbwzjUA.png

There's an LLC on the EAST edge of that convection near 9.6N / 38.1W. Easy to see on visible. This system is embedded in the ITCZ and I don't think it's much of a development threat over the next 3-5 days. However, the wave behind it along 29W has much more energy, though it lacks convection. That one may be one to watch beyond the next 5 days.

Check out the TPW loop and look along 29W at the last frame:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=72hrs&anim=html5

http://wxman57.com/images/LLC.JPG

Thanks, I have been watching that one too.
However, the pink is with this one.

[GCANE]

I am not sure that LLC will last long.
Getting stronger infeeds into the heavy convection that is farther west.
Infeeds coming in from the NW and SW.
Maybe a sign that surface pressure is dropping due to increased updraft.
No convection over the feeds for downdrafts to pinch them off.
Strong helicity will likely form a surface low under the convection,

[GCANE]

06Z showing a breakoff of the wave from the ITCZ in about 96 hrs
Factors that may contradict this is if the axis doesn't rotate to more N-S and if surface pressure remains constant or deepens.

[Jr0d]

I don't think it has much of a chance, however it may help moisten atmosphere/fight SAL which could greatly help the conditions for the next wave that rolls off Africa.

[EquusStorm]

Anything to start sweeping the massive SAL blob parked over the basin a bit will probably help

[GCANE]

Apparently GFS doesn't know what to do with this due to spatial-resolution limitations.
06Z run showing two spinning up in this area in the next day or two and one currently initialized.
This indicates its more a meso-scale forecast which is apparent from the small size of the convection.
Stay tuned.

[GCANE]

GFS is showing this moving into the Bahamas under an Anticyclonic Rossby Wave Break.
Rossby Wave to the west is riding high.
Reconnecting to high-TPW ITCZ air.
A formidable setup with possible major implications.
First such setup of the season.
Stay tuned.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is currently accompanied by minimal shower
activity. Slow development of this system is possible during the
next couple of days as it moves slowly westward. After that time,
environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[jaxfladude]

Please tell me this system is not the start of the 'mean' season and the unfavorable conditions will put an early end to this....please....

[AutoPenalti]

Please tell me this system is not the start of the 'mean' season and the unfavorable conditions will put an early end to this....please....

Well, conditions technically aren't suppose to become favorable until mid-August.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/johnmoralesnbc6/status/1291707388026925056

[GCANE]

Sun setting and still seeing a tower firing over the infeed.
Even has gravity waves.
One of smallest and tenacious disturbances I have seen in this neck of the woods for quite some time.

[Hurricaneman]

Sun setting and still seeing a tower firing over the infeed.
Even has gravity waves.
One of smallest and tenacious disturbances I have seen in this neck of the woods for quite some time.

It’s a sign, this, Isaias and Hanna happened in a suppressed kelvin wave while a CCKW is headed for the Atlantic after the 12th and that’s when things are going to get ugly so while I see no development with this system it’s a precursor of things to come

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is currently accompanied by a few showers
and thunderstorms. Slow development of this system is possible
during the next couple of days while it moves slowly westward.
After that time, environmental conditions are expected to become
less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Pasch