Area off the SE U.S. Coast (Is Invest 96L)

[HurricaneEnzo]

Area of interest off the Georgia coast. Starting to look a little suspicious. Definitely has warm water to work with, moderate shear in the area not too extreme. Something to watch maybe.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... t=vis-swir

[Audrey2Katrina]

Hmmmm -- interesting... would that be considered extra-tropical? (If it developed?) Anyway, it does grab my interest, thanks.
.
A2K

[HurricaneEnzo]

Hmmmm -- interesting... would that be considered extra-tropical? (If it developed?) Anyway, it does grab my interest, thanks.
.
A2K

It would be tropical if it developed it would just have non-tropical origins. In all likelihood nothing happens it doesn't really have any model support. There is some vorticity there in the mid and upper levels however. Sometimes if features like this can fester in the Gulf Stream long enough they can work down to the surface and develop. Hurricane Arthur (2014) would be a good example of this. Not saying anything similar will happen here though.

[EquusStorm]

Haha I still see zombie 94L still meandering around just east of there. The disturbances just don't want to die

[Nimbus]

No east wind so its just the tail of a trough (till there is an east wind).
So maybe.

[northjaxpro]

There is good 850 mb vorticity signature there off the Georgia and South Carolina Coasts currently.

[northjaxpro]

Looks as if our area of disturbed weather has really started perculating this morning as a pronounced 850 mb vorticity is very apparent east of Charleston, SC .

Convection has steadily increased in that area this morning and a possible Low Pressure area may be trying to get going at the surface. Definitely worth monitoring as it will traversing near the Gulf Stream in the very near term. Shear seems marginal.

[hiflyer]

Looking at Morehead radar Thurs at 0500 and if it wasn't bumping on the coast......

[xironman]

Here is the radar, but pressures remain high

[HurricaneEnzo]

Some broad spin in the area still nothing working down to the surface. Definitely causing some nasty weather in my area though. Getting some intense rain and a few lighting strikes. Storms barely moving, wouldn't surprise me if we have gotten around 2 inches of rain or so the last hour.

[cycloneye]

A low pressure area over eastern North Carolina is expected to move
east-northeastward across the north Atlantic well to the south of
New England and the Canadian Maritime provinces for the next several
days. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical
characteristics during the next two to three days while it moves
over warm sea surface temperatures.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Flash flood warning for my area as a result of this system. Figured it was coming

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[HurricaneEnzo]

Starting to look more interesting by the minute. Convection starting to pop over he broad area of circulation. Might be trying to work down to the surface now.

[xironman]

You can definitely see the large extratropical system taking shape on satellite with a chance to transition to an STS. Finally some pressure falls and a nice 25kt breeze at CALO https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=clkn7

Convergence finally kicking in

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure over eastern North Carolina is
forecast to move east-northeastward across the north Atlantic well
to the southeast of New England and to the south of the Canadian
Maritime provinces over the next several days. This system could
acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next
few days while it moves over warm sea surface temperatures of the
Gulf Stream.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[tropicwatch]

Should get an invest # pretty soon.

[cycloneye]

Invest 96L is up