When will Alpha form?

[OuterBanker]

Cycloneye, why not start a pole on when able will form. Since Kyle was named before August 15 it seems like we will reach Able this year which I thought would never happen again. I would guess the first week in October at the rate we are naming them this year.

[cycloneye]

Made the poll that will close on August 20th at 9:10 PM EDT.

[CyclonicFury]

Maybe in late October or November.

[aspen]

Assuming we see 3 more storms in August as a result of the MJO reaching the Atlantic and 7-8 in September, that will be a total of 20-21 named storms by the start of October, so I could see Alpha forming in the first half of that month. I voted for Oct 1-10th.

[Hammy]

Voted Oct 11-20 since that's the point I can't realistically see it occurring prior to.

[toad strangler]

Oct 11-20

[DestinHurricane]

The if is still much bigger than the when. We are by no means certain to get to alpha.

[GeneratorPower]

Oct 11-20

That’s a bold prediction.

[GeneratorPower]

I voted November and beyond. Realistically it’ll take everything this season’s got to even get to Alpha.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Oct 11-20

That’s a bold prediction.

assuming we get at least 2 storms before this month ends, september and october only need to produce 9 storms combined to get to "alpha"

something that is looking increasingly likely each week.

2019 had 11 storms in those 2 months
2018 had 9

so it is possible

[aspen]

I voted November and beyond. Realistically it’ll take everything this season’s got to even get to Alpha.

We’re already halfway to Alpha and the season hasn’t even reached its full potential. We still have 7-10 days before all hell breaks loose in the Atlantic.

[EquusStorm]

Just decided to do some comparisons to see how many more named storms we could expect in the current +AMO period. We have ten names left, so eleven would get us to Alpha.

Here is, from 1995 to 2019, when the eleventh storm AFTER August 14th developed in the Atlantic. Thus, if we had a CARBON COPY of the listed season starting tomorrow, this would be the date that Alpha first developed, IF we would get to Alpha in that season.

2019 - October 11
2018 - October 26
2017 - End at Wilfred
2016 - End at Wilfred
2015 - End at Teddy
2014 - End at Rene
2013 - End at Wilfred
2012 - October 12
2011 - October 23
2010 - September 28
2009 - End at Teddy
2008 - November 5
2007 - December 11
2006 - End at Rene
2005 - October 5
2004 - End at Wilfred
2003 - December 7
2002 - End at Vicky
2001 - November 4
2000 - October 15
1999 - November 13
1998 - October 5
1997 - End at Nana
1996 - End at Wilfred
1995 - October 20

So we can see that the pace of 14 out of the 25 previous years from August 15th onward would get us to Alpha; that's over half. Certainly not a guarantee, and only 2010's pace would see it happen before October, but given the rate we're going I would be shocked if we didn't at least end on the last name on the list.

If you want some sort of crazy high upper end, both 2010 and 2019's pace would in fact get us to Zeta again. An absurd 2005 level activity would carry us to Iota.

[chaser1]

Sure, why not....... right on the cusp of Oct. 11

[Steve]

Lmao at first 10 days of September so I voted for that.

[beyokan]

Lmao at first 10 days of September so I voted for that.

Don't give 2020 any ideas..

[Kazmit]

Lmao at first 10 days of September so I voted for that.

I don't know, we can't exclude late August as a possibility.

[FireRat]

went with November, maybe 2nd half, if I were to pick a date, Nov 25. Caribbean maybe.

[MGC]

I'm counting on NO Alpha this season.....MGC

[aspen]

The current record for most named storms forming in the month of September is 8, held by both 2002 and 2010. The latest CMC runs and EPS ensembles indicate we could get three TCs from tropical waves within the next ten days. Assuming we see 3 named storms in the rest of the month and match 2002 and 2010’s record for 8 September storms, that’ll mean we will get Alpha at the end of next month. However, I think 6-7 storms will be more likely.

[ClarCari]

If these next onslaught of waves keep turning into names at this point I don’t see how we couldn't reach the greeks. Unless september and october are just complete busts.
But how often is it that July and August are more active than September and October (serious question)