Crazy model runs?

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chaser1
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Re: Crazy model runs?

#21 Postby chaser1 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 6:44 pm

Frank2 wrote:Meteorologists are like farmers or fishmen - they need to have good instincts of the Earth as well as a good working knowledge of weather, but in today's world they often rely too much on technology and not enough on instinct, because inspiration powers instinct, and inspiration comes from the heart and soul, and that comes from Above.

"He's in it for the money, not the science! He's got a lot of high tech gadgets...but he's got no instincts..." - Bill Harding, Twister

Relying primarily on models defeats the purpose of looking at a map or satellite photo (or even looking out the window) to know whether it will rain or not, because a weather model (or any model) is only as good as the data that was entered.

Frank


Well said, and SO true.
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Re: Crazy model runs?

#22 Postby SconnieCane » Thu Aug 27, 2020 4:54 am

Remember when the Euro showed Sandy turning into a gigantic post-tropical cyclone and taking a hard left into New Jersey? Oh, wait... :lol:
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Re: Crazy model runs?

#23 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:18 am

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Source (see also here)
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Source (see also here and here)
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MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.09.2017

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 60.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2017 0 17.3N 60.4W 960 82
1200UTC 06.09.2017 12 18.0N 63.5W 958 77
0000UTC 07.09.2017 24 18.9N 66.1W 962 73
1200UTC 07.09.2017 36 20.0N 68.7W 957 77
0000UTC 08.09.2017 48 20.9N 71.3W 946 87
1200UTC 08.09.2017 60 21.4N 73.8W 943 88
0000UTC 09.09.2017 72 21.9N 75.7W 935 90
1200UTC 09.09.2017 84 22.0N 77.7W 942 87
0000UTC 10.09.2017 96 22.2N 79.0W 945 90
1200UTC 10.09.2017 108 23.1N 79.5W 941 81
0000UTC 11.09.2017 120 24.8N 79.5W 918 93
1200UTC 11.09.2017 132 27.0N 80.1W 913 94
0000UTC 12.09.2017 144 29.7N 81.4W 934 87

Image
Image
Image
Image
Image
Image
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Re: Crazy model runs?

#24 Postby Teban54 » Wed Oct 20, 2021 7:29 am

Adding this morning's 6z GFS run to the list, credits to Blown Away:
Image
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Re: Crazy model runs?

#25 Postby abajan » Wed Oct 20, 2021 5:40 pm

Teban54 wrote:Adding this morning's 6z GFS run to the list, credits to Blown Away:
https://i.imgur.com/lVIrtP2.gif

Yeah, Mark Sudduth mentions this 5 minutes and 41 seconds into his latest video.
To quote him, "Let's play a little bit of The GFS Gone Wild ". :lol:
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Re: Crazy model runs?

#26 Postby al78 » Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:08 am

Kazmit wrote:
aspen wrote:The HWRF’s ultra-bonkers runs for Mangkhut in 2018 were truly something special. It ended up peaking Mangkhut at 312 kt and 777 mbar, so intense that the model crashed and basically became the storm’s first casualty.

Lol maybe on Neptune. The physics on Earth would not allow for that. :lol:


Hypercanes have been theorised that could form if the ocean were heated to 50+C. It would take some massive catastrophe to do that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypercane
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Re: Crazy model runs?

#27 Postby kevin » Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:20 am

al78 wrote:
Kazmit wrote:
aspen wrote:The HWRF’s ultra-bonkers runs for Mangkhut in 2018 were truly something special. It ended up peaking Mangkhut at 312 kt and 777 mbar, so intense that the model crashed and basically became the storm’s first casualty.

Lol maybe on Neptune. The physics on Earth would not allow for that. :lol:


Hypercanes have been theorised that could form if the ocean were heated to 50+C. It would take some massive catastrophe to do that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypercane


I think that if ocean temperatures would ever reach 50+C in a large enough area to cause a hypercane, the world is probably already mostly uninhabitable anyways due to the extreme climate or event required to make the ocean that warm. 50C would be at least 14C warmer than the highest ocean temperature ever measured if I recall correctly. Still an interesting concept.
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Re: Crazy model runs?

#28 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Oct 21, 2021 2:59 pm

kevin wrote:
al78 wrote:
Kazmit wrote:Lol maybe on Neptune. The physics on Earth would not allow for that. :lol:


Hypercanes have been theorised that could form if the ocean were heated to 50+C. It would take some massive catastrophe to do that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypercane


I think that if ocean temperatures would ever reach 50+C in a large enough area to cause a hypercane, the world is probably already mostly uninhabitable anyways due to the extreme climate or event required to make the ocean that warm. 50C would be at least 14C warmer than the highest ocean temperature ever measured if I recall correctly. Still an interesting concept.

Actually, say a small asteroid, maybe 1 mile in diameter, were to slam into the ocean, we could see brief ocean temps exceed 50C in a 20 mile radius.
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Re: Crazy model runs?

#29 Postby ChrisH-UK » Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:19 pm

It might not be as crazy as it looks.

One of the GFS products that it does is Okubo-Weiss, this is used to predict converging and non converaging water and the eddies that it makes. As we know the atmosphere is also a liquid, so the GFS runs it on the atmosphere to predict the eddies which become cyclonic systems, like a hurricane.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Okubo-Weiss_parameter

Now looking at the latest run you see it having a 960mb system hitting Puerto Rico. Now following it back you see there is a green and purple blob next to each other in the middle of the Atlantic and now following these blob you see it approaching the coast of South America and heading in to the Southern Caribbean. It then interacts with another system and heads north, there's bubble of low shear in that area so it intensifies as it heads north.



Now knowing where it came from, low and behold we find the wave.



So we end up with the GFS thinking that this area could become a storm in the Caribbean.

Image

To be honest the most likely thing to happen is it will head out over South America as they usually do.
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Re: Crazy model runs?

#30 Postby al78 » Fri Oct 22, 2021 7:04 am

InfernoFlameCat wrote:
kevin wrote:
al78 wrote:
Hypercanes have been theorised that could form if the ocean were heated to 50+C. It would take some massive catastrophe to do that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypercane


I think that if ocean temperatures would ever reach 50+C in a large enough area to cause a hypercane, the world is probably already mostly uninhabitable anyways due to the extreme climate or event required to make the ocean that warm. 50C would be at least 14C warmer than the highest ocean temperature ever measured if I recall correctly. Still an interesting concept.

Actually, say a small asteroid, maybe 1 mile in diameter, were to slam into the ocean, we could see brief ocean temps exceed 50C in a 20 mile radius.


As was mentioned, that would cause a global mass extinction event, so the formation of hypercanes is irrelvant. The asteroid that killed the dinosaurs was about six miles in diameter.

https://science.howstuffworks.com/natur ... -earth.htm

"If a mile-wide asteroid hit Earth, it would strike the planet's surface at about 30,000 mph. An asteroid that big traveling at that speed has the energy roughly equal to a 1 million megaton bomb. It's very likely that an asteroid like this would wipe out most of life on the planet."
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Re: Crazy model runs?

#31 Postby Blunderfish » Wed Oct 25, 2023 11:45 am

AutoPenalti wrote:Would Earth even sustain those kinds of pressures?

Yes, at 2500m. Extremely unlikely at surface, only happens in a EF5 tornado that is itself located near the centre of a <920 mbar low.
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Re: Crazy model runs?

#32 Postby Blunderfish » Wed Oct 25, 2023 11:48 am

AutoPenalti wrote:Would Earth even sustain those kinds of pressures?

Extremely unlikely at surface, only happens in a EF5 tornado that is itself located near the centre of a <920 mbar low.
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Re: Crazy model runs?

#33 Postby ljmac75 » Fri Oct 27, 2023 1:53 pm

Do the model runs for Otis count? They were crazy, but in the completely opposite direction.
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Re: Crazy model runs?

#34 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Oct 27, 2023 9:10 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:
kevin wrote:
al78 wrote:
Hypercanes have been theorised that could form if the ocean were heated to 50+C. It would take some massive catastrophe to do that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypercane


I think that if ocean temperatures would ever reach 50+C in a large enough area to cause a hypercane, the world is probably already mostly uninhabitable anyways due to the extreme climate or event required to make the ocean that warm. 50C would be at least 14C warmer than the highest ocean temperature ever measured if I recall correctly. Still an interesting concept.

Actually, say a small asteroid, maybe 1 mile in diameter, were to slam into the ocean, we could see brief ocean temps exceed 50C in a 20 mile radius.

This, upon 2 years of experience since then, and a little common sense, would wipe out life as we know it. So, lets say that wouldn't work out. anyways, Ian nam 3km runs were insane.
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Re: Crazy model runs?

#35 Postby USTropics » Fri Oct 27, 2023 9:52 pm

al78 wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:
kevin wrote:
I think that if ocean temperatures would ever reach 50+C in a large enough area to cause a hypercane, the world is probably already mostly uninhabitable anyways due to the extreme climate or event required to make the ocean that warm. 50C would be at least 14C warmer than the highest ocean temperature ever measured if I recall correctly. Still an interesting concept.

Actually, say a small asteroid, maybe 1 mile in diameter, were to slam into the ocean, we could see brief ocean temps exceed 50C in a 20 mile radius.


As was mentioned, that would cause a global mass extinction event, so the formation of hypercanes is irrelvant. The asteroid that killed the dinosaurs was about six miles in diameter.

https://science.howstuffworks.com/natur ... -earth.htm

"If a mile-wide asteroid hit Earth, it would strike the planet's surface at about 30,000 mph. An asteroid that big traveling at that speed has the energy roughly equal to a 1 million megaton bomb. It's very likely that an asteroid like this would wipe out most of life on the planet."


It's not just about sea surface temperatures that power a hurricane (a common misconception), there's an actual formula for maximum potential intensity (MPI) that is also governed by the temperature at the top layer of the convection. If you're curious what that is (you learn this in thermodynamics) it's:

Image

Where Ts is surface temperature, and To is the temperature of the top of the convection. Think heat engine, (total work done has to be balanced by the heat input at the top of the atmosphere). Technically, this is the theoretical bounds for an ideal hurricane, which you'll only see during transition periods of regions with high MPI to low MPI (and unfortunately, what we just saw with Otis).
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Re: Crazy model runs?

#36 Postby blp » Fri Oct 27, 2023 10:07 pm

Just in time for Halloween. One of the scariest models runs of all time.


Shell Mound wrote:[]https://i.imgur.com/Buo8iID.gif[/url]
Source
https://i.imgur.com/2GEUaQD.gif
Source
https://i.imgur.com/4NBXWzP.png
Source (see also here)
https://i.imgur.com/ItEj8Vp.png
Source (see also here and here)
https://image.ibb.co/n1go1v/ukm_plots.png
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.09.2017

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 60.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2017 0 17.3N 60.4W 960 82
1200UTC 06.09.2017 12 18.0N 63.5W 958 77
0000UTC 07.09.2017 24 18.9N 66.1W 962 73
1200UTC 07.09.2017 36 20.0N 68.7W 957 77
0000UTC 08.09.2017 48 20.9N 71.3W 946 87
1200UTC 08.09.2017 60 21.4N 73.8W 943 88
0000UTC 09.09.2017 72 21.9N 75.7W 935 90
1200UTC 09.09.2017 84 22.0N 77.7W 942 87
0000UTC 10.09.2017 96 22.2N 79.0W 945 90
1200UTC 10.09.2017 108 23.1N 79.5W 941 81
0000UTC 11.09.2017 120 24.8N 79.5W 918 93
1200UTC 11.09.2017 132 27.0N 80.1W 913 94
0000UTC 12.09.2017 144 29.7N 81.4W 934 87

http://i.imgur.com/SOPjGI6.png
https://i.imgur.com/PM3l6L7.png
https://i.imgur.com/Drxw2h9.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/WvYlQDo.gif
https://i.imgur.com/97Nd49C.gif
http://i.imgur.com/53g0HxK.png
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Re: Crazy model runs?

#37 Postby zzzh » Sun Oct 29, 2023 8:58 pm

Image
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Re: Crazy model runs?

#38 Postby Teban54 » Sun Oct 29, 2023 9:04 pm


Umm what...? :double:
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Re: Crazy model runs?

#39 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Oct 29, 2023 9:35 pm



Looks like a WPAC super typhoon :lol:
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Re: Crazy model runs?

#40 Postby Fancy1002 » Sun Oct 29, 2023 9:54 pm

Shell Mound wrote:https://i.imgur.com/Buo8iID.gif
Source
https://i.imgur.com/2GEUaQD.gif
Source
https://i.imgur.com/4NBXWzP.png
Source (see also here)
https://i.imgur.com/ItEj8Vp.png
Source (see also here and here)
https://image.ibb.co/n1go1v/ukm_plots.png
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.09.2017

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 60.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2017 0 17.3N 60.4W 960 82
1200UTC 06.09.2017 12 18.0N 63.5W 958 77
0000UTC 07.09.2017 24 18.9N 66.1W 962 73
1200UTC 07.09.2017 36 20.0N 68.7W 957 77
0000UTC 08.09.2017 48 20.9N 71.3W 946 87
1200UTC 08.09.2017 60 21.4N 73.8W 943 88
0000UTC 09.09.2017 72 21.9N 75.7W 935 90
1200UTC 09.09.2017 84 22.0N 77.7W 942 87
0000UTC 10.09.2017 96 22.2N 79.0W 945 90
1200UTC 10.09.2017 108 23.1N 79.5W 941 81
0000UTC 11.09.2017 120 24.8N 79.5W 918 93
1200UTC 11.09.2017 132 27.0N 80.1W 913 94
0000UTC 12.09.2017 144 29.7N 81.4W 934 87

http://i.imgur.com/SOPjGI6.png
https://i.imgur.com/PM3l6L7.png
https://i.imgur.com/Drxw2h9.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/WvYlQDo.gif
https://i.imgur.com/97Nd49C.gif
http://i.imgur.com/53g0HxK.png

We really do have to be glad that Irma spent too long near Cuba.
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