Crazy model runs?

[Tekken_Guy]

What were some of the craziest model ru s you’ve seen from storms?

[aspen]

The HWRF’s ultra-bonkers runs for Mangkhut in 2018 were truly something special. It ended up peaking Mangkhut at 312 kt and 777 mbar, so intense that the model crashed and basically became the storm’s first casualty.

[Beef Stew]

As far as pure crazy, like Aspen said Mangkhut breaking the HWRF is about the wildest thing I've ever seen. The GFS had some crazy runs with a sub-900 Florence near Virginia, and of course there's the infamous 881mb-Irma-over-Miami GFS run that gets brought up a lot.

[ElectricStorm]

The HWRF’s ultra-bonkers runs for Mangkhut in 2018 were truly something special. It ended up peaking Mangkhut at 312 kt and 777 mbar, so intense that the model crashed and basically became the storm’s first casualty.

This here was most definitely the craziest model run I have seen.

[Hammy]

I don't have it saved but at one point the NAM was showing Michael's pressure in the 860s.

[Kazmit]

The HWRF’s ultra-bonkers runs for Mangkhut in 2018 were truly something special. It ended up peaking Mangkhut at 312 kt and 777 mbar, so intense that the model crashed and basically became the storm’s first casualty.

Lol maybe on Neptune. The physics on Earth would not allow for that.

[BobHarlem]

The HWRF’s ultra-bonkers runs for Mangkhut in 2018 were truly something special. It ended up peaking Mangkhut at 312 kt and 777 mbar, so intense that the model crashed and basically became the storm’s first casualty.

[doomhaMwx]

The HWRF’s ultra-bonkers runs for Mangkhut in 2018 were truly something special. It ended up peaking Mangkhut at 312 kt and 777 mbar, so intense that the model crashed and basically became the storm’s first casualty.

It almost gave me a heart attack.

[eastcoastFL]

The HWRF’s ultra-bonkers runs for Mangkhut in 2018 were truly something special. It ended up peaking Mangkhut at 312 kt and 777 mbar, so intense that the model crashed and basically became the storm’s first casualty.

It almost gave me a heart attack.

https://i.imgur.com/fN4KS5e.png

That’s terrifying just to look at. That’s end of times stuff

[TheStormExpert]

The NAM last year got Dorian’s intensity nearly spot on!

 https://twitter.com/tarcweather/status/1297731536494702592

[DestinHurricane]

HWRF took Dorian into the 880s I think. Also that GFS run of Irma into Miami sub 900.

[galaxy401]

I'll do a crazy track run. Remember back in 2016 the Euro was thinking the idea that Matthew was going to do a big loop after passing the Carolinas and go back to Florida? The forum went bonkers after that.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

My favourite is the Cat 2 or 3 Zorbas (the resolution is a bit poor but maybe there are one or two barbs with 100 kt on the southeast side) just to the southwest of Greece from the Arpege with central pressure around 970 hPa.

[Hammy]

Does anybody have a gif of the longer range Euro forecast from 2018 for Florence that aimed it at NC and then shoved it southwest into Jacksonville?

[supercane4867]

The all-time record strongest model run for North Atlantic basin goes to HMON's Irma run.

[WAcyclone]

Some complete loops of the now-legendary 18Z Sep 12 2018 HWRF run. The white area in the centre appears since the model can't depict winds at the 850 mb level for this area (which would be well below the surface).

[SconnieCane]

Looks like the model actually got it down to 776MB.

[AutoPenalti]

Would Earth even sustain those kinds of pressures?

[Frank2]

Meteorologists are like farmers or fishmen - they need to have good instincts of the Earth as well as a good working knowledge of weather, but in today's world they often rely too much on technology and not enough on instinct, because inspiration powers instinct, and inspiration comes from the heart and soul, and that comes from Above.

"He's in it for the money, not the science! He's got a lot of high tech gadgets...but he's got no instincts..." - Bill Harding, Twister

Relying primarily on models defeats the purpose of looking at a map or satellite photo (or even looking out the window) to know whether it will rain or not, because a weather model (or any model) is only as good as the data that was entered.

Frank

[shiny-pebble]

I just remembered a NAM run for Hurricane Chris in 2018. I think it had it as a Cat 5 off the Carolina coast in July....

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk