Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (Is Invest 91L)

[otowntiger]

Here is what the 18Z Aug 19th GFS run showed for today’s forecast (7 days out):

https://i.postimg.cc/fbzS3Qjx/gfs-z850-vort-atl-26.png

Yeah that set up could be problematic, but of note is that there are no systems shown to worry about. So the set up isn't really problematic if there are no storms to be steered by it. Of course I know its all subject to change and there could be some waves to watch, but by the same token the set up could be different as well with the usual troughs and retreating ridge allowing for the proverbial 'escape hatch'.

But do you really think there will be no systems to watch going into the heart of the season? Doubtful. Have you seen the CMC, UKMET, and ICON who have blown away the GFS/Euro at detecting genesis this year?

No, I think there will be plenty systems, but I was just commenting on the in reference to an ominous set up but with no storms in that specific model run shown. I do think there will be other system for sure, just not seeing a whole lot of support for them in the near term. My other point is that we can say will things will change regarding systems firing up, we can't atthe same time say the steering synoptics wont change by the same token.

[otowntiger]

Here is what the 18Z Aug 19th GFS run showed for today’s forecast (7 days out):

https://i.postimg.cc/fbzS3Qjx/gfs-z850-vort-atl-26.png

Yeah that set up could be problematic, but of note is that there are no systems shown to worry about. So the set up isn't really problematic if there are no storms to be steered by it. Of course I know its all subject to change and there could be some waves to watch, but by the same token the set up could be different as well with the usual troughs and retreating ridge allowing for the proverbial 'escape hatch'.

you missed the point of the post. that picture he posted was the august 19th gfs forecast for the day laura made landfall. notice how there's not a hint of a storm just 7 days out.

this is why you do not take models for gospel when it comes to TC genesis.

ahh, yep. I did miss that point entirely. I thought the comment was only in reference to the ominous set up which could in fact be ominous, but only if there are systems to be steered by that synoptic pattern. there just weren't any, but I did miss the point that the gfs time frame in that image was when Laura was forming. Quite a whiff by me and the gfs.

[toad strangler]

Yeah that set up could be problematic, but of note is that there are no systems shown to worry about. So the set up isn't really problematic if there are no storms to be steered by it. Of course I know its all subject to change and there could be some waves to watch, but by the same token the set up could be different as well with the usual troughs and retreating ridge allowing for the proverbial 'escape hatch'.

But do you really think there will be no systems to watch going into the heart of the season? Doubtful. Have you seen the CMC, UKMET, and ICON who have blown away the GFS/Euro at detecting genesis this year?

No, I think there will be plenty systems, but I was just commenting on the in reference to an ominous set up but with no storms in that specific model run shown. I do think there will be other system for sure, just not seeing a whole lot of support for them in the near term. My other point is that we can say will things will change regarding systems firing up, we can't atthe same time say the steering synoptics wont change by the same token.

Not a lot of support from what? Models I'd assume you mean, which looking for model support for genesis is a dicey proposition in 2020.

[eastcoastFL]

Is this a different wave?

[Extratropical94]

In the 12Z Euro, the wave doesn't develop, but it catches up to the one in front of it (the 41W) and overtakes it, moving off towards Florida. The 41W wave develops into a weak TC and moves into Honduras. In fact, the 12Z Euro only really develops the wave after this one (i.e. the one that is still over Africa). Too many waves out there

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean just west
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. The northern part of this wave, which is
expected to move rapidly westward over the central Atlantic during
the next few days, is forecast to remain too far to the north and
in an unfavorable environment for development to occur. However,
the southern part of the wave is expected be nearly stationary
south of the Cabo Verde Islands for the next several days, and some
development of this system is possible early next week when it
begins to move slowly westward over the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[AnnularCane]

Looks like the line between the X and the oval got a lot shorter.

ETA: Oh, I think I see why. How common is it for African waves to just sit there?

[DorkyMcDorkface]

So from what I understand from both the NHC and the models the northern part of the wave will race off to the west and the southern part of the wave will get caught within the weak trade wind flow in the MDR and merge with another wave coming off Africa? Man, the MDR has been like a Rube-Goldberg contraption when it comes to cyclogenesis this year.

[SFLcane]

This wave is one to watch closely now with a location further south. Could develop in SW Atlantic long range.

[sma10]

Looks like the line between the X and the oval got a lot shorter.

ETA: Oh, I think I see why. How common is it for African waves to just sit there?

Extremely unusual in late August

[AutoPenalti]

Wait, I’m confused.


Which wave is being developed by the GFS?

[TheStormExpert]

This wave is one to watch closely now with a location further south. Could develop in SW Atlantic long range.

Right now it looks like there will be a break in the ridge which could allow this to go out to sea depending on how quickly this develops. Of course significant development doesn’t occur until a week away so changes are more than likely.

[TheStormExpert]

Wait, I’m confused.


Which wave is being developed by the GFS?

This wave splits into two and the southern lobe quickly develops in a week and the northern lobe briefly develops into something very weak just NE of the southern lobe. This could be partially why the southern lobe goes out to sea on the 18z GFS.

[SFLcane]

This AEW seems to have fizzled. Models have been very inconsistent in general the gfs was showing development of this wave for a few runs dropped it overnight.

Edit: it’s back on the 06z with a huge trof waiting to recurve it thankfully!

[hurricaneCW]

This AEW seems to have fizzled. Models have been very inconsistent in general the gfs was showing development of this wave for a few runs dropped it overnight.

Edit: it’s back on the 06z with a huge trof waiting to recurve it thankfully.

https://i.imgur.com/7lDsv5c.gif

I'd be willing to bet the house that the deep trough is BS. Despite that the GFS still gets it past 70W.

[SFLcane]

This AEW seems to have fizzled. Models have been very inconsistent in general the gfs was showing development of this wave for a few runs dropped it overnight.

Edit: it’s back on the 06z with a huge trof waiting to recurve it thankfully.

https://i.imgur.com/7lDsv5c.gif

I'd be willing to bet the house that the deep trough is BS. Despite that the GFS still gets it past 70W.

Fall coming apparently.

60’s all the way to Tallahassee

[TheStormExpert]

This AEW seems to have fizzled. Models have been very inconsistent in general the gfs was showing development of this wave for a few runs dropped it overnight.

Edit: it’s back on the 06z with a huge trof waiting to recurve it thankfully.

https://i.imgur.com/7lDsv5c.gif

I'd be willing to bet the house that the deep trough is BS. Despite that the GFS still gets it past 70W.

Same! Too bad it’s beyond the 10 day range which is VERY unreliable. I much rather be the target in this range than seeing a recurving hurricane which poses only a threat to the NE Caribbean, Bermuda, or the NE U.S. and Canada.

[TheStormExpert]

This AEW seems to have fizzled. Models have been very inconsistent in general the gfs was showing development of this wave for a few runs dropped it overnight.

Edit: it’s back on the 06z with a huge trof waiting to recurve it thankfully.

https://i.imgur.com/7lDsv5c.gif

I'd be willing to bet the house that the deep trough is BS. Despite that the GFS still gets it past 70W.

Fall coming apparently.

60’s all the way to Tallahassee

What 60’s? Not disagreeing with you SFLcane but the overall steering pattern forecasted for September for the past month or so reeked of ridging.

[SFLcane]

I'd be willing to bet the house that the deep trough is BS. Despite that the GFS still gets it past 70W.

Fall coming apparently.

60’s all the way to Tallahassee

What 60’s? Not disagreeing with you SFLcane but the overall steering pattern forecasted for September for the past month or so reeked of ridging.

https://i.ibb.co/fds8dYK/AA02538-E-9970-4927-B3-A4-70-ED730-CB55-C.png

[TheStormExpert]

Fall coming apparently.

60’s all the way to Tallahassee

What 60’s? Not disagreeing with you SFLcane but the overall steering pattern forecasted for September for the past month or so reeked of ridging.

https://i.ibb.co/fds8dYK/AA02538-E-9970-4927-B3-A4-70-ED730-CB55-C.png

https://i.imgur.com/YLCMofV.gif

Maybe this is right as the NAO is forecasted to stay ever so slightly negative. But it’s 300+ hours out.