Tropical Wave near the Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 99L)

[GCANE]

Classic Protected Pouch.
Good dryline convection firing ahead of it, pushing out the dry air.

[GCANE]

Appears to be picking up steam out of the Amazon.

[GCANE]

Towers with lightning creating cirrus outflow into the dry slot.
Convective anticyclone very close.
Mid-level inflow with some possible low-level turning.
Looks really good.
Looks like CMC pegged this one.

[SconnieCane]

Time to tag an invest, methinks.

[GCANE]

:uarrow: Time to tag an invest, methinks.

WOW, GFS might have just got one right this time!!!

[GCANE]

Shear forecast showing the Carib in the clear as the wave passes thru.

[GCANE]

Looking at possible spin up south of Hispaniola on Wednesday.

[GCANE]

ICON on board

[GCANE]

Add CMC

[Frank P]

Off topic but does anyone remember the storm surge multiplier that existed several year ago where you could compare the different regions to see which areas could get the greatest surge based on the Continental slope of the gulf. have searched but can’t find it... anyone with the web link if you could send it to me would be greatly appreciated... thanks

[St0rmTh0r]

This wave looks good its next up and several behind hyperactive phase in progress.

!!!NOT A FORECAST!!!

[SFLcane]

Canadian brings a weak storm into Central America. GFS does not do much with it

[CyclonicFury]

The 12z Euro takes this towards the BoC, where it briefly tries to develop but runs out of time.

[ConvergenceZone]

Thank goodness for the GOM High Pressure protection! Another storm is the last thing they need right now. Hopefully if there is another Gulf storm this year, it will hold off for another month

[gatorcane]

Saved loop, the wave is the area a little north of 10N and about 48W:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Saved loop, the wave is the area a little north of 10N and about 48W:
https://i.postimg.cc/VNg9Kvqk/goes16-vis-swir-catl.gif

Hard for me to imagine something won't develop with all that convection and rotation out there.

[Visioen]

Right now there's a lot of dry air around.
In the Caribbean however this gets better and most importantly, no shear.
Definitely gonna keep an eye on this one.

[chaser1]

Off topic but does anyone remember the storm surge multiplier that existed several year ago where you could compare the different regions to see which areas could get the greatest surge based on the Continental slope of the gulf. have searched but can’t find it... anyone with the web link if you could send it to me would be greatly appreciated... thanks

I DO remember what you're talking about. Trying to recall where or from what link might require too much brain cell regeneration, Frank. I'll see if I can dig it up though. Hopefully it'll lead to finding a link that's not long broken.

[chaser1]

Saved loop, the wave is the area a little north of 10N and about 48W:
https://i.postimg.cc/VNg9Kvqk/goes16-vis-swir-catl.gif

Hard for me to imagine something won't develop with all that convection and rotation out there.

Totally agree, especially in light of the year we're in. Visioen (comment above) is right though. There's still some layer of dry air out to the East. Chances are that it'll just keep on marching West until finding "that Goldilox" spot for genesis. As stated already, models are already taking pot-shots at whether the Northern or Southern wave axis will begin to develop. Miami and Orlando NWS already mentioning this wave in their local Discussion for extended forecast increase in rainfall.

[Hammy]

That has to be the farthest north I've ever seen the ITCZ in the Atlantic.