Tropical Wave near the Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 99L)

[GCANE]

CMC has it spinning up as a warm core Wednesday south of Jamaica

[GCANE]

UKMET stil with CMC

[GCANE]

ICON has been solid

[GCANE]

If ICON holds up and this gets into the GoM, UL conditions look to be very good for development.
The two best conditions combined:
1) Under an Anticyclone Rossby Wave Break and
2) Southwest of a TUTT

[Aric Dunn]

interesting wave..

watching today for convection to build as that circ/vort lifts north.

[Frank P]

Off topic but does anyone remember the storm surge multiplier that existed several year ago where you could compare the different regions to see which areas could get the greatest surge based on the Continental slope of the gulf. have searched but can’t find it... anyone with the web link if you could send it to me would be greatly appreciated... thanks

I DO remember what you're talking about. Trying to recall where or from what link might require too much brain cell regeneration, Frank. I'll see if I can dig it up though. Hopefully it'll lead to finding a link that's not long broken.

Thanks chaser1, man I searched all over the internet and can’t find it,,, I remember it was used often in the past comparing how the surges of the same systems would vary due to the continental slope of the shoreline... as I best can recall I think Bay St Louis MS had like a 2.0 multiplier while Biloxi had a 1.8, but that all I can recall... it’s like the dang thing disappeared from the www!

[Aric Dunn]

watching fo convection to build in assoicaition with that vort rotating northward.

[USTropics]

Off topic but does anyone remember the storm surge multiplier that existed several year ago where you could compare the different regions to see which areas could get the greatest surge based on the Continental slope of the gulf. have searched but can’t find it... anyone with the web link if you could send it to me would be greatly appreciated... thanks

I DO remember what you're talking about. Trying to recall where or from what link might require too much brain cell regeneration, Frank. I'll see if I can dig it up though. Hopefully it'll lead to finding a link that's not long broken.

Thanks chaser1, man I searched all over the internet and can’t find it,,, I remember it was used often in the past comparing how the surges of the same systems would vary due to the continental slope of the shoreline... as I best can recall I think Bay St Louis MS had like a 2.0 multiplier while Biloxi had a 1.8, but that all I can recall... it’s like the dang thing disappeared from the www!

Not sure if this is the one you're referencing. You can see surge for specific areas and filter by storm strength:
https://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=d9ed7904dbec441a9c4dd7b277935fad&entry=1

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
629 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is over the eastern Atlantic near 56W south
of 18N and is moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are evident
from 13-15N between 53-55W. Some gradual development of this
system is possible while it moves westward toward the Lesser
Antilles and it has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in
the next 5 days.

Eastern?

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
629 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is over the eastern Atlantic near 56W south
of 18N and is moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are evident
from 13-15N between 53-55W. Some gradual development of this
system is possible while it moves westward toward the Lesser
Antilles and it has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in
the next 5 days.

Eastern?

Yeah, I spotted that typo earlier too.

And the images for the 8 AM TWO initially had the ID numbers of the waves switched. But they later corrected it.

[sma10]

Something to keep an eye on: both the ICON and GFS para create a very complex and active scenario in the Caribbean in the mid-range, whereby our wave continues slow development all the way thru into the W Carib, while simultaneously, a disturbance forms in the E Carib which then rotates N/NW into the Bahamas, into a favorable area for development. Not sure how these two systems will interact, if this comes to pass, but something to watch for.

[mpic]

How far off is this thing?

[cheezyWXguy]

Something to keep an eye on: both the ICON and GFS para create a very complex and active scenario in the Caribbean in the mid-range, whereby our wave continues slow development all the way thru into the W Carib, while simultaneously, a disturbance forms in the E Carib which then rotates N/NW into the Bahamas, into a favorable area for development. Not sure how these two systems will interact, if this comes to pass, but something to watch for.

I see that. It looks to me like this in the same timeframe and location as the origin of the GFS’s New England system

[NDG]

I will be very surprised if no development happens in the Caribbean next week into the weekend from either this TW or the one following this one, models show a good environment for development by then, unless the TWs/developing vorticity run straight into C.A. or MX before developing.

[Frank P]

I DO remember what you're talking about. Trying to recall where or from what link might require too much brain cell regeneration, Frank. I'll see if I can dig it up though. Hopefully it'll lead to finding a link that's not long broken.

Thanks chaser1, man I searched all over the internet and can’t find it,,, I remember it was used often in the past comparing how the surges of the same systems would vary due to the continental slope of the shoreline... as I best can recall I think Bay St Louis MS had like a 2.0 multiplier while Biloxi had a 1.8, but that all I can recall... it’s like the dang thing disappeared from the www!

Not sure if this is the one you're referencing. You can see surge for specific areas and filter by storm strength:
https://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=d9ed7904dbec441a9c4dd7b277935fad&entry=1

Thanks USTropics, I seen this before and it’s an awesome tool... this is an quite an advanced version of the storm surge multiplier which was a very simplistic chart for comparing different coast area surges... this is much better too.. thanks again... sorry all for the off topic request, now back to your regular tracking efforts!

[invest man]

Something to keep an eye on: both the ICON and GFS para create a very complex and active scenario in the Caribbean in the mid-range, whereby our wave continues slow development all the way thru into the W Carib, while simultaneously, a disturbance forms in the E Carib which then rotates N/NW into the Bahamas, into a favorable area for development. Not sure how these two systems will interact, if this comes to pass, but something to watch for.

Is this the same system that the GFS para has landfalling in eastern NC on the 06z run?

[gatorcane]

I will be very surprised if no development happens in the Caribbean next week into the weekend from either this TW or the one following this one, models show a good environment for development by then, unless the TWs/developing vorticity run straight into C.A. or MX before developing.

I think we might see development once it reaches the Western Caribbean. The Euro and CMC develop. The GFS (old) does not but the model has shown to be stingy on Atlantic development until timeframe is closer. One other possibility is development once it moves into the EPAC but the GFS is an outlier with that scenario. Animation below from 72 hours. Watch the low-level vorticity in the Western Caribbean crossover into the EPAC and develop:

[sma10]

Something to keep an eye on: both the ICON and GFS para create a very complex and active scenario in the Caribbean in the mid-range, whereby our wave continues slow development all the way thru into the W Carib, while simultaneously, a disturbance forms in the E Carib which then rotates N/NW into the Bahamas, into a favorable area for development. Not sure how these two systems will interact, if this comes to pass, but something to watch for.

Is this the same system that the GFS para has landfalling in eastern NC on the 06z run?

Yes, the same. The para also had it on the 0z run, but created development further west and went into Pensacola.

[abajan]

The 2 PM TWO states the wave is about 550 miles east of the Windward Islands. But it was said to be the same distance from the Windward Islands in the 8 AM TWO. The wave isn't stationary, so that has to be a typo.

[EquusStorm]

It'd be peak 2020 for a solution somewhere between the CMC and GFS where we have a surviving crossover storm that retains its name and thrashes Baja or something with an Atlantic name