Tropical Wave in NW Caribbean

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TheStormExpert
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Re: Tropical Wave Near the Lesser Antilles (along 64W)

#41 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 05, 2020 12:13 pm

This should be at least mentioned in the 2pm TWO. Might be a problem in the Gulf.

 https://twitter.com/hurricanemanwx/status/1302273354578178048


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Re: Tropical Wave Near the Lesser Antilles (along 64W)

#42 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 05, 2020 12:19 pm

This little guy might be trying to snatch the name Paulette before 92L has the chance to form.
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Re: Tropical Wave Near the Lesser Antilles (along 64W)

#43 Postby USTropics » Sat Sep 05, 2020 12:50 pm

Introduced to the TWO at 2PM:

2. A tropical wave located over the east-central Caribbean Sea is
producing an area of showers and thunderstorms. Some slight
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days before upper-level winds become unfavorable for formation.
This wave is expected to move westward across the central and
western Caribbean Sea during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.


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Re: Tropical Wave Near the Lesser Antilles (along 64W)

#44 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 05, 2020 12:52 pm

Another tiny system in the Caribbean, surprised the Caribbean hasn’t produced a monster yet. Thinking October could be the month it does.
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Re: Tropical Wave Near the Lesser Antilles (along 64W)

#45 Postby gfsperpendicular » Sat Sep 05, 2020 1:10 pm

gatorcane wrote:Another tiny system in the Caribbean, surprised the Caribbean hasn’t produced a monster yet. Thinking October could be the month it does.


We also do have 5/6 of September left, so we definitely need to keep an eye out
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Re: Tropical Wave In the Central Caribbean

#46 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Sep 05, 2020 1:16 pm

Decent 850 mb vorticity signature this afternoon.
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Re: Tropical Wave In the Central Caribbean

#47 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Sep 05, 2020 1:22 pm

Mid- Upper Level Low over Cuba causing 25-30 KT SW shear ahead of the TW in the Central and Northwestern Caribbean.


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Last edited by northjaxpro on Sat Sep 05, 2020 2:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Wave In the Central Caribbean

#48 Postby hurricanehunter69 » Sat Sep 05, 2020 1:53 pm

Yep, gonna be interesting to see if that shear zone continues moving west and or weakens?
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Re: Tropical Wave In the Central Caribbean

#49 Postby St0rmTh0r » Sat Sep 05, 2020 2:45 pm

northjaxpro wrote:Mid- Upper Level Low over Cuba causing 25-30 KT SW shear ahead of the TW in the Central and Northwestern Caribbean.


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

A lot less shear out there now compared to a month ago though. MDR has virtually no shear right
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Re: Tropical Wave In the Central Caribbean

#50 Postby Frank P » Sat Sep 05, 2020 2:46 pm

This afternoon’s vis sat loop shows all the convection pretty much gone on the little wave, with the naked circulation moving off to the west... whether or not it makes a comeback is TBD.. but unlikely in the face of all the shear that lies ahead...
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Re: Tropical Wave In the Central Caribbean

#51 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 05, 2020 4:12 pm

This may be an ULL that works its way down to the surface.
I like all the popup convection.
Keeping an eye on this overnight.
Especially to the west of the ULL's CoC.
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Re: Tropical Wave In the Central Caribbean

#52 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 05, 2020 4:26 pm

High rain-rate, high-helicity towers poppin off around 15N 76W.
Catalyst from a strong shear gradient.
Close to the monsoon trough.
Heavy TPW and highly saturated troposphere.
Looks somewhat promising.
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Re: Tropical Wave In the Central Caribbean

#53 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 05, 2020 7:00 pm

A tropical wave located over the east-central Caribbean Sea is
producing an area of showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days before upper-level winds become unfavorable for formation.
This wave is expected to move westward across the central and
western Caribbean Sea during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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Re: Tropical Wave In the Central Caribbean

#54 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 06, 2020 6:36 am

A tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development, if
any, of this system should be slow to occur during the next day or
two while it moves westward across the central and western
Caribbean Sea. After that time, unfavorable upper-level winds
should limit its formation chances.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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Re: Tropical Wave In the Central Caribbean

#55 Postby Laminar » Sun Sep 06, 2020 9:38 am

Looks like it’s starting to take a beating from all sides now. Shear to the west, dry air south, DR north.
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Re: Tropical Wave In the Central Caribbean

#56 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 06, 2020 12:36 pm

A tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development, if
any, of this system should be slow to occur during the next day or
two while it moves westward across the central and western
Caribbean Sea. After that time, unfavorable upper-level winds
should limit its formation chances.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

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Re: Tropical Wave In the Central Caribbean

#57 Postby us89 » Mon Sep 07, 2020 3:46 am

And off the TWO it goes
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Re: Tropical Wave In the Central Caribbean

#58 Postby AJC3 » Mon Sep 07, 2020 4:47 am

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
533 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is near 76W from the S coast of Cuba and near
Jamaica to Colombia, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 16N-20N between 76W-79W,
and within 90 nm NW of the coast of Colombia with additional
activity over land N of 08N.
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Re: Tropical Wave In the Central Caribbean

#59 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 07, 2020 11:11 am

Shear is decreasing very quickly as the TUTT is weakening.

time to start watching this again as the low level vorticity is still very much alive and convection is starting to fill in now that it has slowed down quite a bit.

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Re: Tropical Wave In the Central Caribbean

#60 Postby tailgater » Mon Sep 07, 2020 11:55 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Shear is decreasing very quickly as the TUTT is weakening.

time to start watching this again as the low level vorticity is still very much alive and convection is starting to fill in now that it has slowed down quite a bit.

Yep firing off some T-Storms near the axis, can’t turn your back on a strong wave axis in the northwest Caribbean this time of the year.

Image
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