Tropical Wave in NW Caribbean

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AJC3
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Re: Tropical Wave In the Western Caribbean

#61 Postby AJC3 » Mon Sep 07, 2020 1:53 pm

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 77W from the S coast of Cuba to
Jamaica to N Colombia, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis.
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Re: Tropical Wave In the Western Caribbean

#62 Postby Nimbus » Mon Sep 07, 2020 1:55 pm

Looks like a very sharp little wave with the upper level shredder starting to weaken.
Could be invest worthy with proximity to the gulf a concern.
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Re: Tropical Wave In the Western Caribbean

#63 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 07, 2020 2:09 pm

Nimbus wrote:Looks like a very sharp little wave with the upper level shredder starting to weaken.
Could be invest worthy with proximity to the gulf a concern.


Shear is now under 15 kts. and dropping.

strong Se and some SSW inflow increasing into the convection.

with weak NE flow other side of wave axis.

but with that type of convection it would not take long to produce the first meso vort..
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Re: Tropical Wave In the Western Caribbean

#64 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 07, 2020 2:46 pm

Shear has now dropped to 10kts or less.

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave In the Western Caribbean

#65 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 07, 2020 2:52 pm

Very heavy convection with little shear.
Something is going on. Could be another pinhole circulation.
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Re: Tropical Wave In the Western Caribbean

#66 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Sep 07, 2020 2:54 pm

850mb vorticity increasing near the Yucatan Channel.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=
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Re: Tropical Wave In the Western Caribbean

#67 Postby hurricanehunter69 » Mon Sep 07, 2020 3:23 pm

No sign of a spin on mimic.....yet. Although, with the massive decrease in shear, I would not at all be surprised of a decent spin being clearly evident by the morning. Plus, Aric and gcane are all over it, so I'm all in on something going on here.
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Re: Tropical Wave In the Western Caribbean

#68 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 07, 2020 3:26 pm

It is definitely a very sharp axis. if not a small vortex under the convection.

this type of convective patter typically does not occur unless there is something at the surface.
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Re: Tropical Wave In the Western Caribbean

#69 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Sep 07, 2020 3:30 pm

Looks very suspicious WSW of Jamaica this afternoon, deep convection over what appears to be a vort trying to strengthen at the SW edge.
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Re: Tropical Wave In the Western Caribbean

#70 Postby us89 » Mon Sep 07, 2020 3:45 pm

I'm surprised NHC didn't have this on their 2pm TWO.
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Re: Tropical Wave In the Western Caribbean

#71 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 07, 2020 3:58 pm

Nice convection this afternoon but zero support from models on development.

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave In the Western Caribbean

#72 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 07, 2020 4:08 pm

NDG wrote:Nice convection this afternoon but zero support from models on development.

https://i.imgur.com/tHKGVq9.gif


Thats nothing new lol
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Re: Tropical Wave In the Western Caribbean

#73 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 07, 2020 4:10 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
NDG wrote:Nice convection this afternoon but zero support from models on development.

https://i.imgur.com/tHKGVq9.gif


Thats nothing new lol


True, but the usual aggressive ICON shows nothing.
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Re: Tropical Wave In the Western Caribbean

#74 Postby Nimbus » Mon Sep 07, 2020 4:54 pm

us89 wrote:I'm surprised NHC didn't have this on their 2pm TWO.


Busy with Renee..
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Re: Tropical Wave In the Western Caribbean

#75 Postby us89 » Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:32 pm

Nimbus wrote:
us89 wrote:I'm surprised NHC didn't have this on their 2pm TWO.


Busy with Renee..


If they're busy already, just wait until the next AEW and the low by Bermuda develop while Paulette and Rene are still hanging around... :double:
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Re: Tropical Wave In the Western Caribbean

#76 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:33 pm

looky looky.. We have our first meso vort rotating around from the convection.. it means there is another one embedded in the convection..

really need to be watched now.

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave In the Western Caribbean

#77 Postby Jr0d » Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:51 pm

The 500mb anomaly forecasts show a low over Florida the next couple of days...so that might be the models showing something there. I dont think that is the ULL that was over the Keys this weekend it is picking up on.

Definitely something to be watched.
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Re: Tropical Wave In the Western Caribbean

#78 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Sep 07, 2020 6:17 pm

See some mid level rotation due west of Jamaica in that heavy convection.
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Re: Tropical Wave In the Western Caribbean

#79 Postby us89 » Mon Sep 07, 2020 6:49 pm

Left off the 8 PM TWO.
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Re: Tropical Wave In the Western Caribbean

#80 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 07, 2020 7:05 pm

they just took it off the TWO last night.. if convection sticks around overnught they will have to put it back on
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