Tropical wave off African Coast (Is Invest 93L)

[CyclonicFury]

Created a thread for the tropical wave over Africa since it did not have a thread yet.

This wave may develop rather quickly, and it has model support from the GFS, ECMWF and UKMET. It might be able to develop into a tropical cyclone southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands, so the Cabo Verde Islands will need to watch this one.

3. Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of
Africa over the weekend. An area of low pressure is expected to
form from the wave, and some development of this low will be
possible early next week while it moves generally westward over the
far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[aspen]

ICON also shows development. Every model has this develop quickly and move to the NW, going out to sea and not becoming a long-lived storm.

[gatorcane]

Will have to watch the Cabo Verde islands here. Then it recurves out to sea according to the GFS:

[us89]

Several of the models have this getting rather strong. Could be a decent ACE generator without affecting much land in the process.

[cycloneye]

Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of
Africa over the weekend. An area of low pressure is expected to
form from the wave early next week. Gradual development of this low
is then expected, and a tropical depression could form while it
moves generally westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[us89]

NHC upped the development odds to 0/60 on the 2pm TWO.

[gatorcane]

Looks almost guaranteed to quickly recurve in the eastern Atlantic and probably why there is really no traffic in this thread.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks almost guaranteed to quickly recurve in the eastern Atlantic and probably why there is really no traffic in this thread.

I personally think anything coming off Africa in the next 10-14 days is almost a guaranteed recurve. The U.S. especially Florida shouldn’t have anything to worry about for at least the next 2 weeks in my opinion. October like you said could be where the trouble starts in the Western Caribbean.

[us89]

10/70 development chances now per the NHC:

3. Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of
Africa on Sunday. Gradual development of this system is then
expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle
of next week while it moves generally westward over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[LarryWx]

What is that far W outlier on the 12Z GFS?

[SFLcane]

Will be interesting to see if we get anymore homegrown development this season.

[SFLcane]

What is that far W outlier on the 12Z GFS?

Was just about to post this!

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GFS is a far west outlier with this wave.

[SFLcane]

What’s going on here?

[Cat5James]

What’s going on here?

https://i.postimg.cc/JnsvPYnq/959-D2889-25-AE-4404-886-B-53403-BD37-D15.gif

looks similar to that Euro ensembles from days ago that had a major H through S FL

[chaser1]

What is that far W outlier on the 12Z GFS?

Was just about to post this!

940's and deepening following it's escape from the recent TUTT and seemingly under a building high to the north and Florida in it's sites. We'll see haha. Doubtful that i'll go off and change my pickle-ball plans.

[cycloneye]

FYI= Moved the posts related to this wave from the models discussion thread.

[cycloneye]

Recurving away from CONUS but Bermuda in the crosshairs.

[SFLcane]

Interesting westward track on the 12z gfs. Let’s hope it doesn’t continue.

[TheStormExpert]

What’s going on here?

https://i.postimg.cc/JnsvPYnq/959-D2889-25-AE-4404-886-B-53403-BD37-D15.gif

Maybe the models are starting to realize we’re in a +NAO, not a negative one. Hmmm...