Tropical wave off African Coast (Is Invest 93L)

[Spacecoast]

What’s going on here?

https://i.postimg.cc/JnsvPYnq/959-D2889-25-AE-4404-886-B-53403-BD37-D15.gif

Difference may be 12z run seems to be wave exiting Africa slightly South of 6z run @72hour. 15.05N (12z) vs ~15.65N (6z).
It's interesting how a few miles early on makes a big difference.
One of the 18z GEFS members from 18z Friday exhibited this behavior.

[cheezyWXguy]

Posted in the models thread but deleted it when I saw that you guys beat me to it cycloneye moved your posts here.

This westward shift continues to give credence to the idea that the storm tracks are highly dependent on their rate of development and proximity to one another as they evolve over the next few days. Gfs kills off 92L north of the leewards, lessening its fujiwara interaction with the system behind it.

[toad strangler]

[cycloneye]

Another tropical wave located inland over western Africa is
forecast to move offshore on Sunday. Gradual development of this
system is then expected, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by the middle of next week while it moves generally westward
over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[gatorcane]

Regarding that outlier GFS run, allow me to bring us back down to reality using the GFS ensemble animation which quickly recurves this wave into the Central Atlantic, animation starts at 60 hours with the wave near the Cabo Verde islands:

[cycloneye]

Invest 93L will be up very soon.

[SFLcane]

Regarding that outlier GFS run, allow me to bring us back down to reality using the GFS ensemble animation which quickly recurves this wave into the Central Atlantic, animation starts at 60 hours with the wave near the Cabo Verde islands:

https://i.postimg.cc/wM6CgNHM/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-atl-fh60-240.gif

Almost 2 weeks before any approach to conus if any. Will change 1000 times

[toad strangler]

Regarding that outlier GFS run, allow me to bring us back down to reality using the GFS ensemble animation which quickly recurves this wave into the Central Atlantic, animation starts at 60 hours with the wave near the Cabo Verde islands:

https://i.postimg.cc/wM6CgNHM/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-atl-fh60-240.gif

If anybody needs to be brought down from reality on a 350 hour plus GFS run they are in the wrong hobby

[OuterBanker]

This year the long-range models should be used for entertainment purposes only.
GFS and Euro long range this year borders on horrid.
I thought I would never say this, but the Canadian long range has seemed to be the most accurate.
This year is very odd. We will probably also set a record for the most storms with the lowest ACE per storm ever (I think the average ACE this year per storm is 3).
I think 92L is destined to be a fish. It is already around 20 N even before 40 W. It does seem to be consolidating rather well as could prove to be a rather strong storm.
93L could be problematic I’m afraid. It is emerging much further south than 92L.

[GCANE]

A new wave of hardcore model stuff is about to begin.

[northjaxpro]

Tough to bet against the Teleconnection forecast index right now down the road. In the next 5 days or so, I would put money soon on seeing substantial changes with the model runs ............ my educated analysis..

[Aric Dunn]

The ridge weakens because of the interaction between 92l and the wave behind it.
the wave behind it catches up to 92l and then gets thrown NNW into the ridging creating a weakness and then 92L follow it.

SO we just have to keep waiting. because that scenario is highly unlikely.

[cycloneye]

Moved the above three posts from the models discussion thread to here.

[St0rmTh0r]

A new wave of hardcore model stuff is about to begin.

https://i.imgur.com/cXLvguo.png

What even is that? A Doom Cane? 50 ft storm surge but this is the GFS so.... theres that

[TheStormExpert]

The ridge weakens because of the interaction between 92l and the wave behind it.
the wave behind it catches up to 92l and then gets thrown NNW into the ridging creating a weakness and then 92L follow it.

SO we just have to keep waiting. because that scenario is highly unlikely.

Which scenario is highly unlikely?

[USTropics]

The ridge weakens because of the interaction between 92l and the wave behind it.
the wave behind it catches up to 92l and then gets thrown NNW into the ridging creating a weakness and then 92L follow it.

SO we just have to keep waiting. because that scenario is highly unlikely.

Which scenario is highly unlikely?

The interaction with 92L and the wave behind it. The ECMWF ensembles pretty much paints the same picture. Members are split on the GFS solution (where 92L does not interact with the ridge and weaken it) and the ECMWF solution (recurving):

[SFLcane]

[Aric Dunn]

The ridge weakens because of the interaction between 92l and the wave behind it.
the wave behind it catches up to 92l and then gets thrown NNW into the ridging creating a weakness and then 92L follow it.

SO we just have to keep waiting. because that scenario is highly unlikely.

Which scenario is highly unlikely?

The interaction with 92L and the wave behind it. The ECMWF ensembles pretty much paints the same picture. Members are split on the GFS solution (where 92L does not interact with the ridge and weaken it) and the ECMWF solution (recurving):

https://i.imgur.com/sb627Zq.png

Exactly.
I have been mentioning for a couple of days now when all the "recurve" talk started that the ridge weakening was not from a trough but rather from the interaction with the next wave being thrown north of 92L.

This interaction is very unlikely to happen given the distance between them currently.

[boca]

Do you see the Bermuda high coming back because according to the NWS Miami the high is nonexistent as far as Florida goes and they said it’s being shoved way up north and East. If that’s the case we are pretty much safe from any storm coming in from the east or southeast for the time being it looks like everything that will develop will recurve unless the high builds in like during Laura,

[SFLcane]

Bottom half of EPS certainly very interesting. Long range