Disturbance over The Bahamas (Is Invest 96L)

[AnnularCane]

What are the odds this could be future Sally?

[ElectricStorm]

This one to me has danger written all over it. We've already had 2 rapidly intensifying hurricanes in the gulf landfall at peak intensity. We certainly don't need a third.

[St0rmTh0r]

https://i.postimg.cc/gk9LCNCg/441-DD87-E-FAE7-4907-A6-A4-FF7-B711-DA8-BB.gif

Definitely see the shape taking place. Hardly no shear over this and its moving very slow and its Sep 10.. This is the type of setup hurricane forecasters fear.

[NDG]

I'm curious if anyone can point to the origins of this disturbance. Was it one of those AEWs that kind of fizzled on the way across and everyone kind of stopped paying attention for awhile, or did it arise from something else?

I want to say that it is from a combination of a weak AEW and tailing moisture left behind by TS Omar that did a clockwise turn back to the west by looking at some archives.

[tropicwatch]

Funny this system has decent shower activity but little vorticity. The Gulf of Mexico has minimal shower activity but decent vorticity.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

[toad strangler]

Funny this system has decent shower activity but little vorticity. The Gulf of Mexico has minimal shower activity but decent vorticity.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

I'd expect that to flip flop pretty soon.

[Aric Dunn]

Funny this system has decent shower activity but little vorticity. The Gulf of Mexico has minimal shower activity but decent vorticity.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

I'd expect that to flip flop pretty soon.

Those maps are entirely accurate.. there is a lag first off.. and there have been TS with little vorticty of those.

[NDG]

Looks to me the surface trough/LL vorticity and ML vorticity are not aligned yet. Looking at the 18z GFS it forecasts a stronger h85 vorticity developing underneath the MLC that is currently over Cat Island tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks to me the surface trough/LL vorticity and ML vorticity are not aligned yet. Looking at the 18z GFS it forecasts a stronger h85 vorticity developing underneath the MLC that is currently over Cat Island tomorrow.

https://i.imgur.com/OnVxXoa.gif

follow the convection.. if that MLC keep producing the convection it will work to the surface.

https://www.rainviewer.com/map.html?loc ... &sm=0&sn=0" width="100%" frameborder="0" style="border:0;height:50vh;" allowfullscreen

[toad strangler]

Funny this system has decent shower activity but little vorticity. The Gulf of Mexico has minimal shower activity but decent vorticity.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

I'd expect that to flip flop pretty soon.

Those maps are entirely accurate.. there is a lag first off.. and there have been TS with little vorticty of those.

are or aren't

[Aric Dunn]

I'd expect that to flip flop pretty soon.

Those maps are entirely accurate.. there is a lag first off.. and there have been TS with little vorticty of those.

are or aren't

are not.. lol

[toad strangler]

Those maps are entirely accurate.. there is a lag first off.. and there have been TS with little vorticty of those.

are or aren't

are not.. lol

that's what I thought

[NDG]

I'm curious if anyone can point to the origins of this disturbance. Was it one of those AEWs that kind of fizzled on the way across and everyone kind of stopped paying attention for awhile, or did it arise from something else?

I want to say that it is from a combination of a weak AEW and tailing moisture left behind by TS Omar that did a clockwise turn back to the west by looking at some archives.

Exactly as I had thought.

https://imgur.com/FD547DG

[Hammy]

Looks to me the surface trough/LL vorticity and ML vorticity are not aligned yet. Looking at the 18z GFS it forecasts a stronger h85 vorticity developing underneath the MLC that is currently over Cat Island tomorrow.

https://i.imgur.com/OnVxXoa.gif

This has a strong feeling potential Hanna repeat--except it's September now and not July. Even in Hanna's case, the LLC was well west of the convection until a convective burst pulled it in as it spun up.

[USTropics]

I'd expect that to flip flop pretty soon.

Those maps are entirely accurate.. there is a lag first off.. and there have been TS with little vorticty of those.

are or aren't

There can be upwards of 3-6 hours of lag time. There's also a bit of interference with the islands that's masking the true vorticity representation in those graphs at the lower levels. This will be a system that really builds from the top down (which is slower process ofc). We can start to see in the last 12 hours some signs this has begun to happen. Vorticity started building north of Hispaniola and then surged towards this area earlier today. We'll see if this will build down to the mid-levels overnight.

[NDG]

Looks to me the surface trough/LL vorticity and ML vorticity are not aligned yet. Looking at the 18z GFS it forecasts a stronger h85 vorticity developing underneath the MLC that is currently over Cat Island tomorrow.

https://i.imgur.com/OnVxXoa.gif

This has a strong feeling potential Hanna repeat--except it's September now and not July. Even in Hanna's case, the LLC was well west of the convection until a convective burst pulled it in as it spun up.

Yeah, right now this system is already better organized than when Hanna passed through this area. Still mind boggling why global models still don't do much with this system. Sounds familiar?

[CrazyC83]

Global models haven't done a good job especially in that part of the Atlantic this year. Given its proximity to land, calling it 96L would be so helpful to get the short range models.

[us89]

Global models haven't done a good job especially in that part of the Atlantic this year. Given its proximity to land, calling it 96L would be so helpful to get the short range models.

If current trends continue my bet is it'll be designated 96L on the 06Z best track.

Maybe NHC is being conservative with the invest designations now because they're worried about having more than 10 of them active at once...

[sma10]

I'm wondering if the system is under a bit of shear currently? There looks to be some spin off the coast E of Jacksonville.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm wondering if the system is under a bit of shear currently? There looks to be some spin off the coast E of Jacksonville.

15kts. of shear that’s about it.