Most unusual/strangest hurricane seasons?

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Re: Most unusual/strangest hurricane seasons?

#21 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:21 pm

Ryxn wrote:1967: 29 tropical depressions, second only to 2005. Twenty-one of them never strengthened past TD, a record. Record 4 tropical cyclones in June (all TDs) and a record 10 tropical cyclones in October (7 TDs). Three storms; Chloe, Beulah and Doria simultaneously existed for around 2 weeks accumulating 46 tropical cyclone days within 17 calendar days. Mic drop.


1967 and 70 are both strange in that sense and had quite a few depressions that (based on what I have to work with) makes me wonder if a bunch of tropical storm intensity systems were missed.
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Re: Most unusual/strangest hurricane seasons?

#22 Postby Ryxn » Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:27 pm

Hammy wrote:
Ryxn wrote:1967: 29 tropical depressions, second only to 2005. Twenty-one of them never strengthened past TD, a record. Record 4 tropical cyclones in June (all TDs) and a record 10 tropical cyclones in October (7 TDs). Three storms; Chloe, Beulah and Doria simultaneously existed for around 2 weeks accumulating 46 tropical cyclone days within 17 calendar days. Mic drop.


1967 and 70 are both strange in that sense and had quite a few depressions that (based on what I have to work with) makes me wonder if a bunch of tropical storm intensity systems were missed.


It was in the satellite though I think this is very possible for fish storms or storms with not monitored as thoroughly or frequently.
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Re: Most unusual/strangest hurricane seasons?

#23 Postby Astromanía » Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:26 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:Recently:

2010 - recurve rucurve recurve recurve recurve recurve recurve
2013 - just trash
2014 - more trash
2015 - even more trash.
2020 - just plain weird


In 2010 Mexico had two strong hurricanes that made landfall, Alex and Karl, both very costly and deadly :roll:
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Re: Most unusual/strangest hurricane seasons?

#24 Postby FireRat » Fri Sep 11, 2020 12:07 am

1780 - Extremely devastating and wicked season of the ancient past which featured its worst storms, including the deadliest hurricane on record, a Cape Verde monster, in OCTOBER.

Had there been categories for hurricanes back then, two of those October monsters likely could have been Cat 5's. The Great Hurricane killed 22,000+ people as it ravaged the Leewards and PR during Oct 10-14, 1780. This one IMO was almost certainly a top-end Cat 5 based on historical accounts.

Besides that unbelievable October, a deadly hurricane struck the Leewards in JUNE, followed by a Laura-like strike on New Orleans in late August. That year was basically hell, and one anomalous season in many regards.
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Re: Most unusual/strangest hurricane seasons?

#25 Postby bob rulz » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:24 am

It's pretty fascinating to think of past hyperactive seasons. 2005 looks very anomalous to us now, but based on scant historical records I wouldn't be surprised if a similar season occurs once or twice a century (1933 could have potentially been more or at least just as active). We'll see if such seasons become more common as climate change accelerates....2020 certainly is looking like another doozy.

Also wonder a lot about all of the tropical depressions in the earlier days of the satellite era. I think it's a combination of missing tropical storm-strength winds, and classifying powerful waves as TDs since it can be so hard to spot a circulation underneath. I hope the re-analysis project eventually reaches those years.
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Re: Most unusual/strangest hurricane seasons?

#26 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Sep 13, 2020 1:03 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:This one hasn't been mentioned, but 1961 is interesting. Had a hurricane in July, followed by a completely dead August and then a hyperactive September to November (which had 3 storms by itself). It finished with over 200 ACE.

1962 has some similarities to 2013 in a way. There was no El Nino present, and I remember running some NOAA PSL plots that suggested below-average shear, a favorable velocity potential configuration, and a strong West African Monsoon. Despite this, the season was very quiet with no major hurricanes.

1994 is odd. Only one hurricane in August and no hurricanes in September, but a very busy November with 2 hurricanes that had more ACE than any other month in the season!

1969 is also a fascinating season. While the season is remembered mostly for Camille, it was a very active season with many erratic storms later in the season such as Inga, Kara, Laurie (which had a track shaped like a ribbon) and Martha.


1962 is an interesting season. 2013 could of been active as well. I wonder if 1962 had thermohaline circulation weakened like in 2013.

I looked at relative humidity at different levels and it is rather dry at 700 millibar and higher level. It is from August to October.
https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/compo ... intpage.pl
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Re: Most unusual/strangest hurricane seasons?

#27 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Sep 13, 2020 1:06 pm

FireRat wrote:1780 - Extremely devastating and wicked season of the ancient past which featured its worst storms, including the deadliest hurricane on record, a Cape Verde monster, in OCTOBER.

Had there been categories for hurricanes back then, two of those October monsters likely could have been Cat 5's. The Great Hurricane killed 22,000+ people as it ravaged the Leewards and PR during Oct 10-14, 1780. This one IMO was almost certainly a top-end Cat 5 based on historical accounts.

Besides that unbelievable October, a deadly hurricane struck the Leewards in JUNE, followed by a Laura-like strike on New Orleans in late August. That year was basically hell, and one anomalous season in many regards.


October produces many monster hurricanes and some of the deadliest as well. I would not be surprised if the Great Hurricane of 1780 is a Category 5. I suspect 1780 was probably an active season.
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Re: Most unusual/strangest hurricane seasons?

#28 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Sep 13, 2020 1:53 pm

1899: notable for proportion of robust and/or significant hurricanes despite El Niño; San Ciriaco ‘cane longest-lived
1926: featured three (!) MH impacts in the Bahamas, including two Cat-4s, one of which occurred in late July (120 kt)
1932: four Cat-4+ hits, one each in TX, the Bahamas, Puerto Rico, and Cuba; Cat-5 November hurricane in Caribbean
1933: extremely high ACE coupled with strong ridging → westward tracks (rare combination for hyperactive seasons)
1935: besides the Labor Day hurricane, the “Yankee” storm formed near Bermuda, hit S FL as a Cat-2 in November
1941: rare October MH affected the Bahamas and struck South FL (Goulds/Naranja) as weakening Cat-2 from the east
1954: had three Cat-2+ impacts between NC and MA, including Cat-4 Hazel, northernmost such hit on East Coast
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Re: Most unusual/strangest hurricane seasons?

#29 Postby al78 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 5:39 pm

2000. 15 storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes but the ACE was not remarkable. A lot of storms developed in the MDR but most of them struggled, and failed to develop into strong storms. The two that did strengthen into significant hurricanes were ones that formed on the east side and moved north west and recurved soon after formation. I think there was a persistent TUTT over the MDR which sheared anything moving towards the Caribbean. Not totally unlike this year.
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Re: Most unusual/strangest hurricane seasons?

#30 Postby Beef Stew » Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:28 am

Like Shell Mound said, if you look closely enough almost any season can be seen as a little weird because of its inherent quirks and oddities.

That being said, 1893 stands out to me as a particularly weird/notable season. The season had a total of 12/10/5, and has the third highest ACE for the NATL Basin (231). The first ten storms in a row all reached hurricane intensity, and the total for the season in mid October was 10/10/5. Of these 10 hurricanes, three originated on the same day (August 15th) and a whopping four were active on August 22nd- the latter which has only happened once since then (1998). The only two storms that failed to reach hurricane intensity formed late in the season- not until October 20th and November 5th. Additionally, every storm except for the final TS made a direct impact somewhere, with many notable and/or uncommon locations:

Storm 1: TS into Big Bend region of FL
Storm 2: C2 into Nicaragua/Honduras, C1 into Belize
Storm 3: C3 into Puerto Rico, Extratropical C1 into Nova Scotia
Storm 4: C1 into Long Island NY
Storm 5: C1 into Newfoundland
Storm 6: C3 into GA
Storm 7: C1 through the Azores
Storm 8: C2 into Louisiana
Storm 9: C3 into SC
Storm 10: C4 into Louisiana
Storm 11: TS into Delmarva Peninsula

While none of these are exceptionally rare events, many of the tracks are fairly uncommon- Canada saw two significant impacts (one of which was fully tropical), Long Island had one of its four directly landfalling hurricanes, the 1893 Sea Islands Hurricane continues to be the most recent major to strike the northern portion of GA’s coastline (the most recent major was in 1898 near the GA/FL border), the Azores possibly saw their strongest hurricane in the 19th century, SC had a major strike (not that uncommon, but also far from frequent), and Louisiana took a C2 and a C4 in under a month. Additionally, both the Sea Islands and Cheniere Caminada (the LA C4 hurricane) were very deadly, and resulted in over 2,000 deaths each. Also of note is how clumped the tracks are- all but three storms pass through/near three relatively small areas: SE LA, N coastal GA, and slightly W of the outer banks. The paths for the GA and SC storms even practically overlap between 27 and 31 N.

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Re: Most unusual/strangest hurricane seasons?

#31 Postby Dean_175 » Mon Sep 21, 2020 12:00 am

2020 so far. We have reached the Greek letters ....in September- yet we still have an ACE below 95.

I doubt this season will even enter the top 10 in terms of ACE. In that case: I would not be comfortable calling this the first or second most active hurricane season on record.

Storms are struggling this year....once they get a name. We certainly have seen nothing like Irma's persistent winds of 165mph+ or Wilma's sub-900mb pin-hole eye.
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Re: Most unusual/strangest hurricane seasons?

#32 Postby Shell Mound » Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:56 am

Dean_175 wrote:2020 so far. We have reached the Greek letters ....in September- yet we still have an ACE below 95.

I doubt this season will even enter the top 10 in terms of ACE. In that case: I would not be comfortable calling this the first or second most active hurricane season on record.

Storms are struggling this year....once they get a name. We certainly have seen nothing like Irma's persistent winds of 165mph+ or Wilma's sub-900mb pin-hole eye.

Personally I think the lower ration of high-quality storms in recent years, 2017 excepted, is a sign that the +AMO may have ended. This season is behaving more like a hyperactive season during the last -AMO than a similar season during the most recent +AMO. Many of the seasons from the 1970s and ‘80s featured numerous depressions and weak storms, along with a relative handful of impressive systems such as Edith ‘71, Allen ‘80, Gilbert, Hugo, et al. Reanalysis would probably easily reveal a lot of seasons in the ‘70s and ‘80s with more than fifteen named storms, when all the missed subtropical storms and short-lived off-season tropical storms are counted. The satellite imagery in the thread on missed storms seemingly confirms this.
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Re: Most unusual/strangest hurricane seasons?

#33 Postby AveryTheComrade » Mon Sep 21, 2020 8:58 am

Shell Mound wrote:
Dean_175 wrote:2020 so far. We have reached the Greek letters ....in September- yet we still have an ACE below 95.

I doubt this season will even enter the top 10 in terms of ACE. In that case: I would not be comfortable calling this the first or second most active hurricane season on record.

Storms are struggling this year....once they get a name. We certainly have seen nothing like Irma's persistent winds of 165mph+ or Wilma's sub-900mb pin-hole eye.

Personally I think the lower ration of high-quality storms in recent years, 2017 excepted, is a sign that the +AMO may have ended. This season is behaving more like a hyperactive season during the last -AMO than a similar season during the most recent +AMO. Many of the seasons from the 1970s and ‘80s featured numerous depressions and weak storms, along with a relative handful of impressive systems such as Edith ‘71, Allen ‘80, Gilbert, Hugo, et al. Reanalysis would probably easily reveal a lot of seasons in the ‘70s and ‘80s with more than fifteen named storms, when all the missed subtropical storms and short-lived off-season tropical storms are counted. The satellite imagery in the thread on missed storms seemingly confirms this.


1990 was the most active season in the -AMO period and was 14-8-1
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Re: Most unusual/strangest hurricane seasons?

#34 Postby MarioProtVI » Mon Sep 21, 2020 9:00 am

Shell Mound wrote:
Dean_175 wrote:2020 so far. We have reached the Greek letters ....in September- yet we still have an ACE below 95.

I doubt this season will even enter the top 10 in terms of ACE. In that case: I would not be comfortable calling this the first or second most active hurricane season on record.

Storms are struggling this year....once they get a name. We certainly have seen nothing like Irma's persistent winds of 165mph+ or Wilma's sub-900mb pin-hole eye.

Personally I think the lower ration of high-quality storms in recent years, 2017 excepted, is a sign that the +AMO may have ended. This season is behaving more like a hyperactive season during the last -AMO than a similar season during the most recent +AMO. Many of the seasons from the 1970s and ‘80s featured numerous depressions and weak storms, along with a relative handful of impressive systems such as Edith ‘71, Allen ‘80, Gilbert, Hugo, et al. Reanalysis would probably easily reveal a lot of seasons in the ‘70s and ‘80s with more than fifteen named storms, when all the missed subtropical storms and short-lived off-season tropical storms are counted. The satellite imagery in the thread on missed storms seemingly confirms this.

There is no evidence to suggest +AMO has ended. Calling it quits on it just because 2019 and this year have weaker quality storms is hypocritical. Teddy is going to push us over 100 and we still have the rest of the month and all of October which is looking to be favourable (and if the GFS is hinting at something, should the 06z verify that WCarib storm would easily rack up 30-40 ACE).
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Re: Most unusual/strangest hurricane seasons?

#35 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 21, 2020 9:36 am

MarioProtVI wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
Dean_175 wrote:2020 so far. We have reached the Greek letters ....in September- yet we still have an ACE below 95.

I doubt this season will even enter the top 10 in terms of ACE. In that case: I would not be comfortable calling this the first or second most active hurricane season on record.

Storms are struggling this year....once they get a name. We certainly have seen nothing like Irma's persistent winds of 165mph+ or Wilma's sub-900mb pin-hole eye.

Personally I think the lower ration of high-quality storms in recent years, 2017 excepted, is a sign that the +AMO may have ended. This season is behaving more like a hyperactive season during the last -AMO than a similar season during the most recent +AMO. Many of the seasons from the 1970s and ‘80s featured numerous depressions and weak storms, along with a relative handful of impressive systems such as Edith ‘71, Allen ‘80, Gilbert, Hugo, et al. Reanalysis would probably easily reveal a lot of seasons in the ‘70s and ‘80s with more than fifteen named storms, when all the missed subtropical storms and short-lived off-season tropical storms are counted. The satellite imagery in the thread on missed storms seemingly confirms this.

There is no evidence to suggest +AMO has ended. Calling it quits on it just because 2019 and this year have weaker quality storms is hypocritical. Teddy is going to push us over 100 and we still have the rest of the month and all of October which is looking to be favourable (and if the GFS is hinting at something, should the 06z verify that WCarib storm would easily rack up 30-40 ACE).

If the Caribbean ends up being as conductive for late-season development as has been suspected, we could very easily get a long-tracking high-ACE major like Hazel, Wilma, or Matthew.

Speaking of the latter, it was part of one of the reasons why 2016 was such a bizarre start to the consecutive above-average seasons. For the most part, September 2016 was absolutely pathetic, with only four named storms after Hermine and all of them failing to reach hurricane status. Even long-tracking Karl failed to do anything significant. The whole season up to that point had only produced 57 ACE, nearly half of which was from Gaston. Then the season went on overdrive starting in late September with three consecutive majors: Cat 5 Matthew becoming the biggest October ACE maker in the Atlantic, Cat 4 Nichole roaming around for two weeks, and Cat 3 Otto becoming a rare Thanksgiving landfall. With just three storms, 2016 went from 12/4/1 and 57 ACE, to 15/7/4 and 141 ACE. It goes to show how sometimes the later months can have some nasty surprises that drastically change the season as a whole.
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Re: Most unusual/strangest hurricane seasons?

#36 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 21, 2020 10:53 am

aspen wrote:
MarioProtVI wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:Personally I think the lower ration of high-quality storms in recent years, 2017 excepted, is a sign that the +AMO may have ended. This season is behaving more like a hyperactive season during the last -AMO than a similar season during the most recent +AMO. Many of the seasons from the 1970s and ‘80s featured numerous depressions and weak storms, along with a relative handful of impressive systems such as Edith ‘71, Allen ‘80, Gilbert, Hugo, et al. Reanalysis would probably easily reveal a lot of seasons in the ‘70s and ‘80s with more than fifteen named storms, when all the missed subtropical storms and short-lived off-season tropical storms are counted. The satellite imagery in the thread on missed storms seemingly confirms this.

There is no evidence to suggest +AMO has ended. Calling it quits on it just because 2019 and this year have weaker quality storms is hypocritical. Teddy is going to push us over 100 and we still have the rest of the month and all of October which is looking to be favourable (and if the GFS is hinting at something, should the 06z verify that WCarib storm would easily rack up 30-40 ACE).

If the Caribbean ends up being as conductive for late-season development as has been suspected, we could very easily get a long-tracking high-ACE major like Hazel, Wilma, or Matthew.

Speaking of the latter, it was part of one of the reasons why 2016 was such a bizarre start to the consecutive above-average seasons. For the most part, September 2016 was absolutely pathetic, with only four named storms after Hermine and all of them failing to reach hurricane status. Even long-tracking Karl failed to do anything significant. The whole season up to that point had only produced 57 ACE, nearly half of which was from Gaston. Then the season went on overdrive starting in late September with three consecutive majors: Cat 5 Matthew becoming the biggest October ACE maker in the Atlantic, Cat 4 Nichole roaming around for two weeks, and Cat 3 Otto becoming a rare Thanksgiving landfall. With just three storms, 2016 went from 12/4/1 and 57 ACE, to 15/7/4 and 141 ACE. It goes to show how sometimes the later months can have some nasty surprises that drastically change the season as a whole.

I mentioned it in another thread a while back but I do think that 2020 has potential to be a 2016 on steroids with a few monsters in October. The majority of the hurricanes this year either formed closer to home, or failed to intensify until it got close to home (Laura). That's concerning to me because it shows the most favorable conditions are closer to home and October is the month of home-grown systems.
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Re: Most unusual/strangest hurricane seasons?

#37 Postby JPmia » Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:13 pm

In terms of expectations versus actual storm quality/ACE this season is weird to me. Lots of prohibiting factors seem to have popped up with a lot of these storms this year. However, the indicators were screaming a 2005 type season in terms of lots of Majors and dangerous storms, but we have many tropical storms. This is worthy of discussion for sure in the coming years.
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Re: Most unusual/strangest hurricane seasons?

#38 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:39 pm

Not sure if this counts, but 1975's numbering is kind of strange (numbering of depressions as we know it today appears to have begun in 1974 or 73)

TD3 formed on July 25, TD4 on Jul 28, TD6 on Sep 3 and TD7 on Sep 4, and continued with proper intervals the rest of the season--except two storms (Caroline and Doris) formed between 4 and 6, so we have one less depression number (the final was TD15) than the total number operational depressions (16)
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Re: Most unusual/strangest hurricane seasons?

#39 Postby Ptarmigan » Tue Sep 22, 2020 10:52 pm

Shell Mound wrote:If one were to brutally honest, nearly every season is “odd”—that is, anomalous—in one way or another. There is usually some oddity somewhere.


Exactly. Every season has their uniqueness.
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Re: Most unusual/strangest hurricane seasons?

#40 Postby ClarCari » Tue Sep 22, 2020 11:10 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:If one were to brutally honest, nearly every season is “odd”—that is, anomalous—in one way or another. There is usually some oddity somewhere.


Exactly. Every season has their uniqueness.


This!

Which seasons have technically had or came close to having the actual average storms, hurricanes, and majors, and have them occur during the expected time frame (ex., 1 storm in June/July, 2-3 in Aug, 3-5 in Sept, 2-3 in Oct, and 1 in Nov)?
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