Tropical Wave SE of Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[ClarCari]

I’m personally throwing 97L the towel and paying more attention to this one. Since this wave looks to be following the same southern part of the MDR as TD20, I can see two scenarios.
Either it develops at around the same pace as TD20 did, maybe recurve, maybe become a major, etc.
OR it stays disorganized and weak until it gets closer to the Caribbean or even in the Caribbean.
At the end of the day I don’t see this wave not becoming some type of thing at some point. Big question is when?

Because it is going to come off 4 days later than TD 20 and because I've yet to see any model run having anything remotely as ominous as many runs of various models had for TD 20, I'm currently not nearly as concerned as I was at times when TD 20 was still over W Africa. Remember how scary the outlook for TD 20's wave was when it was over W Africa? At one point, I was thinking it had a 1 in 3 chance of something pretty bad.

Any significant concern for this new TW would have to wait til if/when model consensus ever does much with it. At this point, it would appear that the biggest potential threat from this would be mainly if it remains a wave until just E of the Caribbean and then develops.

With TD 20 now having no more than a 5% chance of ever being a threat, this has a slightly higher chance than TD 20 right now (perhaps 10-15%) given higher uncertainty, it coming off at a low lat, and it being a Nina, but mainly if it doesn't become a TD until past 50W.

I remain more concerned about "ridge over troubled water" homegrown potential next week.

Agree about the potential homegrown threat for this one. Guess I shoulda said I’m not “worried” right now about this one but compared to 97L....this one should have more potential down the line. Rene is proving conditions far east are not as favorable as the central and west Atlantic, so waves like 97L going immediately up north upon exit from Africa are going to struggle (Paulette got lucky from being a bit more northwest) while waves exiting more south have more potential.

[SFLcane]

8 PM TWO

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Monday. Some slow development of the system is possible by the
middle or late part of the week as the wave moves westward at about
10 mph over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

From gradual development to " some ” possible.

[TheStormExpert]

8 PM TWO

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Monday. Some slow development of the system is possible by the
middle or late part of the week as the wave moves westward at about
10 mph over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

From gradual development to " some ” possible.

I bet they start to decrease development chances at 2am assuming overnight model runs don’t become enthusiastic again.

[ElectricStorm]

8 PM TWO

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Monday. Some slow development of the system is possible by the
middle or late part of the week as the wave moves westward at about
10 mph over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

From gradual development to " some ” possible.

I bet they start to decrease development chances at 2am assuming overnight model runs don’t become enthusiastic again.

Models have been off the whole season... Could become a sleeper wave down the road

[bob rulz]

8 PM TWO

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Monday. Some slow development of the system is possible by the
middle or late part of the week as the wave moves westward at about
10 mph over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

From gradual development to " some ” possible.

I bet they start to decrease development chances at 2am assuming overnight model runs don’t become enthusiastic again.

Went up to 10/40 actually.

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

...

3. A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for slow development of the system this week as the wave moves westward at about 10 mph over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[ouragans]

Code: Select all

A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for slow development of the system this week as the wave moves westward at about 10 mph over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


[gfsperpendicular]

Any wave with a single-digit latitude has my attention. I don't think this will turn into anything noteworthy, but it should be fun to watch. Now let's just hope that gulf area doesn't develop so we don't have to deal with a long-tracking Alpha

[ClarCari]

This wave looks like it’s coming off Africa even more south where Teddy did. What exactly is in it’s way from impeding development besides “the models aren’t picking up on it”

[chaser1]

This wave looks like it’s coming off Africa even more south where Teddy did. What exactly is in it’s way from impeding development besides “the models aren’t picking up on it”

Just "time" itself. That's what makes it a bit concerning.

[StPeteMike]

My worry is that most models don’t see this developing while approaching the islands. But by the time the system gets the islands, that’s where the models pretty much end. It will be interesting to see if the models will develop it once it enters the Caribbean, which have been pretty quiet this season.

[aspen]

My worry is that most models don’t see this developing while approaching the islands. But by the time the system gets the islands, that’s where the models pretty much end. It will be interesting to see if the models will develop it once it enters the Caribbean, which have been pretty quiet this season.

I wouldn’t call the Caribbean quiet, due to the rapid genesis of Marco and Nana, but at this point we’re really overdue for a significant hurricane in there. I think this might try to start putting itself together east of 50W and enter the Caribbean as a developing storm.

[Hurricaneman]

This wave looks like it’s coming off Africa even more south where Teddy did. What exactly is in it’s way from impeding development besides “the models aren’t picking up on it”

The models haven’t exactly been stellar this year, will need to keep an eye on this if it stays south

[StPeteMike]

My worry is that most models don’t see this developing while approaching the islands. But by the time the system gets the islands, that’s where the models pretty much end. It will be interesting to see if the models will develop it once it enters the Caribbean, which have been pretty quiet this season.

I wouldn’t call the Caribbean quiet, due to the rapid genesis of Marco and Nana, but at this point we’re really overdue for a significant hurricane in there. I think this might try to start putting itself together east of 50W and enter the Caribbean as a developing storm.

Marco didn’t really get going until the GOM and Nana struggled up until the last 24 hours, barely making it to Hurricane strength before making landfall. But I agree, this might be a sleeper that gets going once it starts approaching the islands.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for slow development
of the system this week as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[ClarCari]

The NHC doesn’t care what models say or don’t say.

Precedent speaks louder than any amount of modeling ever could.
The MDR still has a classic favorable environment for tropical waves right now. No reason to anticipate it staying quiet for the next couple of weeks.

[LarryWx]

6Z EPS through 144 (end of run): new wave just off Africa is quite far to the south and remains pretty far south through 144 meaning chance of recurving well OTS not as high as its MDR predecessors:

[ouragans]

We may have an invest later on

[EquusStorm]

Y'all remember that we have a rapidly deepening extremely dangerous hurricane in the GoM that models completely failed to pick up on until well after the NHC had tagged it and it was essentially a TD; you just gotta override model genesis lack of enthusiasm when conditions are favorable and the background state supports ridiculous levels of development. Any shear along the way would seem to be the only limiting factor for this and I feel we can't rule out another long tracked mid-Atlantic hurricane.

[CrazyC83]

Y'all remember that we have a rapidly deepening extremely dangerous hurricane in the GoM that models completely failed to pick up on until well after the NHC had tagged it and it was essentially a TD; you just gotta override model genesis lack of enthusiasm when conditions are favorable and the background state supports ridiculous levels of development. Any shear along the way would seem to be the only limiting factor for this and I feel we can't rule out another long tracked mid-Atlantic hurricane.

It seems inconceivable that the W name could be a Cabo Verde long-tracker, but here we are in 2020.