2019 JTWC Best Track - Discussion

[Nancy Smar]

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html?best-tracks

[Nancy Smar]

WP, 24, 2019110515, , BEST, 0, 201N, 1507E, 165, 888, ST,

WP, 20, 2019100712, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1466E, 160, 890, ST

WP, 22, 2019102209, , BEST, 0, 187N, 1440E, 140, 922, ST,

WP, 02, 2019022310, , BEST, 0, 119N, 1429E, 145, 895, ST,

[aspen]

WP, 24, 2019110515, , BEST, 0, 201N, 1507E, 165, 888, ST,

WP, 20, 2019100712, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1466E, 160, 890, ST

WP, 22, 2019102209, , BEST, 0, 187N, 1440E, 140, 922, ST,

WP, 02, 2019022310, , BEST, 0, 119N, 1429E, 145, 895, ST,

Bualoi got upgraded to a Cat 5 Super Typhoon, and Hagibis and Halong are both officially >160 kt? Nice.

[aspen]

Holy jeez that’s a lotta upgrades. 160 kt Hagibis, 165 kt Halong, 140 kt Bualoi, 135 kt Lekima, 120 kt Kammuri, Cat 4 Fengshen, and Cat 3 Phanfone as well as several others.

[Hayabusa]

WP, 24, 2019110515, , BEST, 0, 201N, 1507E, 165, 888, ST,

WP, 20, 2019100712, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1466E, 160, 890, ST

WP, 22, 2019102209, , BEST, 0, 187N, 1440E, 140, 922, ST,

WP, 02, 2019022310, , BEST, 0, 119N, 1429E, 145, 895, ST,

Holy COW Hagibis and Halong are 160 and 165 kts! The decade started with a bang and ended with a bang after all

[Weather Dude]

WP, 24, 2019110515, , BEST, 0, 201N, 1507E, 165, 888, ST,

WP, 20, 2019100712, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1466E, 160, 890, ST

WP, 22, 2019102209, , BEST, 0, 187N, 1440E, 140, 922, ST,

WP, 02, 2019022310, , BEST, 0, 119N, 1429E, 145, 895, ST,

Whoa they actually did it! Wow! A ton of upgrades

[1900hurricane]

I like the Hagibis estimate a lot. Not sure I would have gone quite that gung-ho with Halong, but that was a very strong one too. Pressures with Kammuri are almost certainly too deep at peak intensity (although it might just be an auto generated KZC output). I like most of the changes, particularly the Lekima, Bualoi, and aforementioned Hagibis peak intensity estimates.

[aspen]

Rejoice, for faith has been restored in the JTWC! They have avenged their terrible performance last year with upgrades everywhere! Just about every major typhoon got an upgrade, although I’m most surprised about Wutip getting massively buffed to 145 kt and 895 mbar. With an Instantaneous Cyclone Energy (ICE) score of 198.62 units, it edges out Dorian (195.52 units) to become the third strongest TC of 2019.

[1900hurricane]

48 mb pressure drop in four hours? That doesn't jive with me.

[euro6208]

For once I really applaud JTWC with these changes.

160 and 165 knots?

[Weather Dude]

For once I really applaud JTWC with these changes.

Yeah they really came in clutch with these upgrades... Makes me wonder why they were so behind with all these storms operationally

[weeniepatrol]

Looks really good.

[NotoSans]

The most interesting part about JTWC best track is that they seem to follow different standards every year.

[Imran_doomhaMwx]

Was Hagibis' landfall on Anatahan verified? Satellite shows the pinhole eye passed directly, but on radar it appears to have passed just to the south of the island. If it did made landfall, I guess it's technically tied with the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane and STY Karen (1962) as the strongest US landfalling TC in terms of 1-min sustained winds?


 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1181234607569719297

[euro6208]

Was Hagibis' landfall on Anatahan verified? Satellite shows the pinhole eye passed directly, but on radar it appears to have passed just to the south of the island. If it did made landfall, I guess it's technically tied with the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane and STY Karen (1962) as the strongest US landfalling TC in terms of 1-min sustained winds?

Too bad. Anatahan is a volcanic island and no one lives there.

Karen didn't make landfall on Guam at peak intensity. It was after but wind gust of up to 185 mph were observed.

If we include all landmasses, that's a different story.

Hagibis was probrably stronger at landfall and peak. It's super duper eye was a nightmare for dvorak.

[NotoSans]

A few thoughts on the best track:

- Additional fixes between synoptic times are a good idea but JTWC may have gone too far. For example, Hagibis 2nd peak intensity of 150kt was set at 04Z, and both 00Z and 06Z were 145kt. IMO satellite estimates alone aren't sufficient to determine such fluctuations in intensity. The same applies to Halong's 165kt at 15Z and Wutip's 145kt at 10Z.

- Neoguri was a standard T5.5 (not to mention Dvorak does poorly on compact storms w/ small eyes) so don't know why JTWC decided not to bump up peak intensity.

- Kammuri was almost certainly overestimated. Surface observations never went below 960mb, and KZC didn't support anything higher than 110kt.

[Weather Dude]

Was Hagibis' landfall on Anatahan verified? Satellite shows the pinhole eye passed directly, but on radar it appears to have passed just to the south of the island. If it did made landfall, I guess it's technically tied with the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane and STY Karen (1962) as the strongest US landfalling TC in terms of 1-min sustained winds?

Too bad. Anatahan is a volcanic island and no one lives there.

Karen didn't make landfall on Guam at peak intensity. It was after but wind gust of up to 185 mph were observed.

If we include all landmasses, that's a different story.

Hagibis was probrably stronger at landfall and peak. It's super duper eye was a nightmare for dvorak.

Doesn't matter if no one lives there or not. It would still be a US landfall

[euro6208]

WP, 24, 2019110515, , BEST, 0, 201N, 1507E, 165, 888, ST,

WP, 20, 2019100712, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1466E, 160, 890, ST

WP, 22, 2019102209, , BEST, 0, 187N, 1440E, 140, 922, ST,

WP, 02, 2019022310, , BEST, 0, 119N, 1429E, 145, 895, ST,

Holy COW Hagibis and Halong are 160 and 165 kts! The decade started with a bang and ended with a bang after all

Indeed. Wow.

Nothing beats the WPAC.

[Shell Mound]

Was Hagibis' landfall on Anatahan verified? Satellite shows the pinhole eye passed directly, but on radar it appears to have passed just to the south of the island. If it did made landfall, I guess it's technically tied with the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane and STY Karen (1962) as the strongest US landfalling TC in terms of 1-min sustained winds?

Too bad. Anatahan is a volcanic island and no one lives there.

Karen didn't make landfall on Guam at peak intensity. It was after but wind gust of up to 185 mph were observed.

If we include all landmasses, that's a different story.

Hagibis was probrably stronger at landfall and peak. It's super duper eye was a nightmare for dvorak.

Doesn't matter if no one lives there or not. It would still be a US landfall

At around 1 a.m., the eye of Hagibis passed over Anatahan Island, about 80 miles north of Saipan.

Source

[mrbagyo]

Was Hagibis' landfall on Anatahan verified? Satellite shows the pinhole eye passed directly, but on radar it appears to have passed just to the south of the island. If it did made landfall, I guess it's technically tied with the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane and STY Karen (1962) as the strongest US landfalling TC in terms of 1-min sustained winds?

https://i.imgur.com/FPtmzjB.png
https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1181234607569719297?s=19

The 6-hourly track didn't take into account the trochoidal wobbles of the inner eyewall. I wont consider it a landfall but man Anatahan got that violent core/RFQ.