Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean (Is Invest 91L)

[chaser1]

Trying to spy any hint of turning but not quite yet. Those cold convective tops are pretty impressive however. I'll say this much.... any limitation on development won't be the result of dry air from within the Caribbean.

[chaser1]

I don't see how this isn't tagged an "invest" by sometime this evening.

[TJRE]

Very little if any rotation in the wave axis atm....
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=conus&timespan=48hrs&anim=html5

Percolating????

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-W_Caribbean-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[ClarCari]

Not that this couldn’t start developing sooner, but it’s starting to look more like the front and gyre will be what helps this thing start spinning.
I can see this storm being a similar track and intensity to Stan (same exact time of year too!) and could perhaps crawl into BOC.
The waves behind this however....

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located over the west-central Caribbean Sea is
expected to continue moving westward over the next couple of days,
and produce a broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean
Sea or extreme southern Gulf of Mexico by Thursday night or Friday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some
development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over
the weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan
Peninsula, and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[toad strangler]

DUAL thread worthy image

[MetroMike]

Still no official invest? Crazy

[Nimbus]

The models wouldn't know what to do with an invest now, so we might get a lot of unnecessary speculation.
Speculation is good for storm2k but not so good for professionals that are under the gun(so to speak).

[gfsperpendicular]

Does anyone have an ascat? Curious to see what's going on at the surface.

[Nimbus]

Does anyone have an ascat? Curious to see what's going on at the surface.

The surface pressure dropped to 1008 MB back on Tuesday as the wave passed just south southeast of Ponce.
Winds have been steady out of the east at buoy 42059 west of there so no signs of circulation yet.

[chaser1]

0Z GFS has a deeper 1003mb low just north of the E. Honduran coast at 36 hrs. Interestingly, the GFS is continuing it's trend of bringing this system further north and east then each prior run. Up to 108 hr's and then appears to stall about 100 miles north of Yucatan. What next? "Exit left" lol, westward bound..... again.

[cycloneye]

1. A tropical wave located over the west-central Caribbean Sea is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea or the south-central Gulf of Mexico,
possibly before the system reaches the east coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula on Saturday. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico, and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Ryxn]

Upto 40/70 on the TWO. The shape of the cone of uncertainty has changed as well to be more confined to Belize and the Yucatán peninsula.

1. A tropical wave located over the west-central Caribbean Sea is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea or the south-central Gulf of Mexico,
possibly before the system reaches the east coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula on Saturday. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico, and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[aspen]

This is now Invest 91L on Tropical Tidbits.

[Emmett_Brown]

91L looking more symmetrical, looks like the main vorticity will stay N of Honduras as it heads WNW for now.

[Ivanhater]

91L is up



viewtopic.php?f=59&t=121435