Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean (Is Invest 91L)

[SouthFLTropics]

It looks like the GEFS is picking up on the second disturbance to make the most trouble. We'll see. There is definitely no shortage of trains coming into the Caribbean station. Getting busy out there again.

[SFLcane]

Believe it or not all those ensembles are related to the same Gyre.

[SouthFLTropics]

What a mess... I think one thing is for sure. No matter what happens, the Western Caribbean and Florida are in for a very rainy pattern over the next two weeks.

[SFLcane]

Pontential for 2 tc’s but Both systems will be interacting with the gyre. Next system might get highlighted by the nhc in a few days .

[cycloneye]

Up to 60% in 5 days.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea is expected
to move westward over the next few days and interact with a frontal
system, producing a broad area of low pressure over the western
Caribbean Sea on Friday. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for some additional development thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system
moves slowly west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Blown Away]

18z GEFS is active once again.

https://i.postimg.cc/sxKNXqnD/DA90444-C-B5-F7-46-F3-BAD4-5-DBB0-AD1338-C.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/rp6Q8q8N/D45971-C8-9-A66-40-BD-87-AF-E77-F467-E627-C.png

https://i.postimg.cc/Xqh9Qgqk/CEF33-A03-5-BDE-4394-96-E7-8098682-FD03-D.png

I wonder if the strong hurricane signal over E Cuba is the second system that GFS-P was showing that took a Matthew type track.

[psyclone]

WPC's current QPF output shows big rains from lake O southward suggestive of an eventual track across south florida on a northeast or east northeast heading...whatever this becomes looks juicy with the standard abrupt cutoff to the north. as of now the heavy stuff is down south with not much over the central and north. it seems like a reasonable guess at this point. cold front just passed my house. early this year for a change. I'll take it

[fci]

WPC's current QPF output shows big rains from lake O southward suggestive of an eventual track across south florida on a northeast or east northeast heading...whatever this becomes looks juicy with the standard abrupt cutoff to the north. as of now the heavy stuff is down south with not much over the central and north. it seems like a reasonable guess at this point. cold front just passed my house. early this year for a change. I'll take it

Or it is a stalled frontal boundary with waves riding along it and no organized system at all.

[psyclone]

WPC's current QPF output shows big rains from lake O southward suggestive of an eventual track across south florida on a northeast or east northeast heading...whatever this becomes looks juicy with the standard abrupt cutoff to the north. as of now the heavy stuff is down south with not much over the central and north. it seems like a reasonable guess at this point. cold front just passed my house. early this year for a change. I'll take it

Or it is a stalled frontal boundary with waves riding along it and no organized system at all.

for sure. we don't need a numbered/named system for big QPF. A stalled early season front is a perfect focusing mechanism. Multiple inches of rain look likely for south florida system or not.

[jlauderdal]

Up to 60% in 5 days.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea is expected
to move westward over the next few days and interact with a frontal
system, producing a broad area of low pressure over the western
Caribbean Sea on Friday. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for some additional development thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system
moves slowly west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Stacy stewart isnt leaving anything on the table...60 percent it is

[Spacecoast]

18z GEFS still show shows no signs(0% probability) of TC Genesis (for the next 120hours). *


***Probabilities of genesis occurring are calculated simply by determining whether the disturbance matches TD/TS characteristics over the 48 / 120 hour forecast window for each ensemble member, effectively each ensemble member is worth a little over 3% (nens =32, including both deterministic and control as unique).

The latest FSU TC genesis probability have the GFS all alone @48% for hours 0-120, and 59% for hours 0-168.
The CMC, UKMET, and NAVGEM all do not see any genesis probability as of tonight. In previous runs the CMC,and NAVGEM have predicted some probabitly.

These could, and probably will change tomorrow, of course.

The NHC has 60% chance, giving the GFS, / GFS-Para a big vote of confidence, (or some other tool at their disposal).

[Spacecoast]

Good Morning, 0z GFS

[Hurricaneman]

Good Morning, 0z GFS
https://i.ibb.co/1QRsRqc/gfs-mslp-pcpn-seus-fh210-264.gif

Thats the wave at 57W that tangles with the CAG at 7+ days, this gets buried in the BOC from the same CAG that develops at 60hrs

[caneseddy]

CMC send this into the Gulf in the general direction of Louisiana as a TS/low end Cat 1

[cheezyWXguy]

Good Morning, 0z GFS
https://i.ibb.co/1QRsRqc/gfs-mslp-pcpn-seus-fh210-264.gif

Thats the wave at 57W that tangles with the CAG at 7+ days, this gets buried in the BOC from the same CAG that develops at 60hrs

That is going to be one to watch closely. 0z gefs has a very strong signal for it. Strongest member bottoms out in the 920s, and multiple others show sub 970s. Cmc also brings it down to 991mb. Far from a consensus at this time, but the signal seems quite a bit stronger for that one than the first

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET and Euro have no Caribbean TC.

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

Para says why not.

[SFLcane]

[AxaltaRacing24]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/DyTkr76W/D9048943-51-A7-437-D-BF08-C00134-F1239-A.jpg

hello wilma!