What will 2020's major hurricane total be?

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Ryxn
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What will 2020's major hurricane total be?

#1 Postby Ryxn » Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:10 pm

So far we have 3, maybe 4 if you count Sally which could be upgraded post-season. I'll be bold and say we are getting 2 more with a season total of 6. One in October and another in early to mid-November. I know they are rare but I just have a feeling November will surprise us this year.

I'd like a poll to be made with the options being...

□ 6 (with Sally)
□ 5 (with Sally)
□ 5 (without Sally) 1 vote
□ 4 (with Sally)
□ 4 (without Sally) 1 vote
□ 3 (without Sally) 1 vote

Sorta a 2 topic thread with discussion of whether you think Sally will be upgraded welcomed as well!

Share your thoughts!
Last edited by Ryxn on Fri Oct 09, 2020 8:53 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Will the Category 5 hurricane streak end this year?

#2 Postby RL3AO » Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:13 pm

Probably. Cat 5's after mid October are extremely rare.
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Re: Will the Category 5 hurricane streak end this year?

#3 Postby Weather Dude » Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:57 pm

I'd say we're not getting a Cat 5 this year... I think we can certainly get 1 (maybe even 2?) More majors before the season shuts down though
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Re: Will the Category 5 hurricane streak end this year?

#4 Postby Ryxn » Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:19 pm

Weather Dude wrote:I'd say we're not getting a Cat 5 this year... I think we can certainly get 1 (maybe even 2?) More majors before the season shuts down though


I agree. I changed the title to something more flexible and realistic.
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Re: What will 2020's major hurricane total be?

#5 Postby DestinHurricane » Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:23 pm

3 without sally. I highly doubt sally gets upgraded and season looks like it is winding down after delta.
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Re: What will 2020's major hurricane total be?

#6 Postby aspen » Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:36 pm

Probably 4 or 5 majors, excluding Sally. The WCar is still ripe for development and something else to bomb out, and there have been multiple Caribbean majors after the first half of October. I wouldn’t quite rule out a Cat 5 because of how favorable the Caribbean waters are, and how there have been late C5s like Mitch and Janet. Also, we have a major in the Gulf west of 90W...on October 9th. 2020 doesn’t like to play by normal October rules it seems.

Another region that could bear watching is the area just north of the GAs, including the Bahamas. It’s been untouched all year and has pretty high SSTs/OHC. There is a slim possibility of something forming there.
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Re: What will 2020's major hurricane total be?

#7 Postby Weather Dude » Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:32 pm

aspen wrote:Probably 4 or 5 majors, excluding Sally. The WCar is still ripe for development and something else to bomb out, and there have been multiple Caribbean majors after the first half of October. I wouldn’t quite rule out a Cat 5 because of how favorable the Caribbean waters are, and how there have been late C5s like Mitch and Janet. Also, we have a major in the Gulf west of 90W...on October 9th. 2020 doesn’t like to play by normal October rules it seems.

Another region that could bear watching is the area just north of the GAs, including the Bahamas. It’s been untouched all year and has pretty high SSTs/OHC. There is a slim possibility of something forming there.

I saw something that showed November will likely be active, so we could see something like Otto '16 in November.
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Re: What will 2020's major hurricane total be?

#8 Postby Blinhart » Fri Oct 09, 2020 4:37 am

5
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Re: What will 2020's major hurricane total be?

#9 Postby HurricaneEdouard » Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:11 am

My guess is 5. I think Sally may be upgraded in post-season analysis (at the very least, it should be upgraded to 95 knots), and I think we'll get one, possibly two more major hurricanes. (2005 had Wilma and Beta in late October, 2008 had Omar in October and Paloma in November, so I think it's reasonable to predict that 2020, which has been remarkably imitating 2005 in many ways, will see another late-season major hurricane after Delta.)
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Re: What will 2020's major hurricane total be?

#10 Postby chaser1 » Sat Oct 10, 2020 12:11 pm

I believe the Atlantic will produce one more major (between Cat 3-Cat 4) hurricane during the next six weeks.
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Re: What will 2020's major hurricane total be?

#11 Postby kevin » Sat Oct 10, 2020 12:30 pm

I think there will be one more major, potentially a storm forming from the long term WCar signal that's in the models around 150 - 300 hours, so that makes it 4 (or 5 if Sally is upgraded once the season is over).
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Re: What will 2020's major hurricane total be?

#12 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:41 pm

Assuming Sally gets her post-season upgrade and 2 more major develop in late-October into November(plausible given favorable conditions), that would bring the seasonal total to 6 which could tie or even exceed the number of WPAC Typhoons at major hurricane intensity(there have been only 4 so far). Don't think this has ever happened before for both basins in a same year.

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Re: What will 2020's major hurricane total be?

#13 Postby Ryxn » Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:00 pm

Already 4. I think the season total will be 5.
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Re: What will 2020's major hurricane total be?

#14 Postby Weather Dude » Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:12 pm

Ryxn wrote:Already 4. I think the season total will be 5.

My preseason prediction was 5 so it better be :lol: In all seriousness though, we still have plenty of time left in the season to get another major (maybe something like Otto 2016).
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Re: What will 2020's major hurricane total be?

#15 Postby Ryxn » Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:28 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
Ryxn wrote:Already 4. I think the season total will be 5.

My preseason prediction was 5 so it better be :lol: In all seriousness though, we still have plenty of time left in the season to get another major (maybe something like Otto 2016).


My fantasy would be the CAG producing a Category 5 Caribbean storm that weakens to tropical storm before getting close to land. Unlikely but I want the Cat 5 streak to continue without loss of life and significant damage.

If Igor hit Cat 5 and missed Canada completely, it would have been my ideal fish. Lorenzo came close but there was a ship tragedy.
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Re: What will 2020's major hurricane total be?

#16 Postby Weather Dude » Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:32 pm

Ryxn wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:
Ryxn wrote:Already 4. I think the season total will be 5.

My preseason prediction was 5 so it better be :lol: In all seriousness though, we still have plenty of time left in the season to get another major (maybe something like Otto 2016).


My fantasy would be the CAG producing a Category 5 Caribbean storm that weakens to tropical storm before getting close to land. Unlikely but I want the Cat 5 streak to continue without loss of life and significant damage.

If Igor hit Cat 5 and missed Canada completely, it would have been my ideal fish. Lorenzo came close but there was a ship tragedy.

Yeah it's hard to get a Cat 5 in the Atlantic that doesn't hit somewhere. That's why I prefer seasons where the Pacific is more active than the Atlantic.
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Re: What will 2020's major hurricane total be?

#17 Postby JRD » Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:05 pm

There's Epsilon now. Plus, we still have November and possibly December to go.
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Re: What will 2020's major hurricane total be?

#18 Postby Ryxn » Mon Nov 16, 2020 1:13 am

And we have SIX
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Re: What will 2020's major hurricane total be?

#19 Postby Shell Mound » Mon Nov 16, 2020 11:31 am

Ryxn wrote:And we have SIX

I’m going with eight. I think Zeta may deserve to be upgraded to 100 knots (Cat-3) at its peak, and I think we’ll get one more Cat-3 in late Nov/Dec.
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Re: What will 2020's major hurricane total be?

#20 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:51 pm

Well your comment that you had a feeling November will surprise us aged very well! 6 majors, with two of those in November and being Greek-named were totally not on my hurricane season bingo list in June. Also, I cannot be the only person shocked at how the final storm of the season (after 30 attempts) became a Cat 5 in (of all months) November. I mean, jeez. In October I was ready to say that our Cat 5 streak from 2016 would end this year, but I was clearly wrong.
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