What will 2020's hurricane total be?

[Ryxn]

Quite a lot of hurricanes have formed this year. What total do you think 2020 will finish with? 2010 had 4 hurricanes after Otto.

I'd like a poll with these options...


□14 or more (with Gamma)
□13 or more (without Gamma) 1 vote (14)
□13 (with Gamma)
□12 (with Gamma)
□12 (without Gamma)
□11 (without Gamma) 1 vote
□11 (with Gamma)
□10 (without Gamma) 3 votes
□10 (with Gamma)
□9
□8 (with Nana's potential downgrade and no more hurricanes forming)

Thoughts?

[CyclonicFury]

10

[ElectricStorm]

10, because that was my preseason prediction and I'm sticking with it

[Blinhart]

10, because that was my preseason prediction and I'm sticking with it

14

[ElectricStorm]

10, because that was my preseason prediction and I'm sticking with it

14

I don't think we have enough time to get 5 more hurricanes lol... 2 or 3 maybe, but not much more than that probably. Both the ones that do form could get strong, especially in the Caribbean

[aspen]

11-13, excluding Gamma (which will likely get upgraded in post-season analysis). Anywhere from 2-4 more hurricanes from now through November seems reasonable, due to the very warm SSTs for this time of year (more on the 2020 indicators thread) and a positive CCKW coming into the basin towards the end of the month. Perhaps up to 2 of those could become majors.

[Ryxn]

I'll be bold and say 4 more hurricanes will form before December 31.

Keep in mind what you see below is VERY unlikely and purely hypothetical. Some of the scenarios are possible or probable though.

27: Tropical Storm Zeta (From Caribbean): October 26
28: Hurricane Eta C4/5 (MDR wave to Carib): November 4
29: Tropical Storm Theta (mid-Atlantic): November 11
30: Hurricane Iota C1 (mid-Atlantic): November 18
31: Hurricane Kappa C3/4 (Otto-esque): November 21
32: Hurricane Lambda C1 (Epsilon '05 esque): December 2
33: Tropical Storm Mu (mid-Atlantic): December 15
34: Tripical Storm Nu (Zeta '05 esque): December 31

34 tropical storms +1 upgrade (TD10)
14 hurricanes +2 upgrades (Gonzalo and Gamma)
6 major hurricanes +2 upgrades (Paulette and Sally)

Season Total
35 tropical depressions (record)
35 tropical storms (record)
16 hurricanes (record)
8 major hurricanes (record, including one Cat 5 in November)
~185ACE

2 storms in May (tied record)
2 storms in June
5 storms in July (tied record)
5 storms in August [includes TS on Aug 1st, 2 Hs feat. 1 MH]
10 storms in September (record) [4 Hs including 3 MHs]
4 storms in October [TD29 on Oct 31]
4 storms in November (record) [#29 becomes Eta on Nov 1]
3 storms in December (record) [includes 1 hurricane]

October and November both had 3 hurricanes each with both months featuring 2 major hurricanes. July also featured 3 hurricanes (All Category 1). August had 2 hurricanes (including 1 major), September had 4 (including 3 majors), and December had 1

*Crickets*

Now being realistic...
The Eta storm will likely be a Category 3 at most, not a Cat 5.
There will be one less mid-Atlantic storm in November but reaching Cat 1 is possible.
The "Otto-esque" storm if it even occurs is more likely to be a C2, maybe 3 but 4 is unlikely.
The Lambda storm isn't likely as Epsilon of 2005 was a rare freak of nature.
The Mu storm is also unlikely though in 2003, two tropical storms formed in December very close together in date and in 1887, it was the same bit for hurricanes, so not impossible
The Nu storm is very unlikely as Zeta of 2005 was also a rare freak of nature. And ringing in the NEW Year with Tropical Storm NU would be wonderful. "Happy Nu Year's!"

Gonzalo isn't very likely to be bumped up 10 mph to a Hurricane to be honest and Paulette is a little more likely to get an upgrade (to Cat 3) but is still unlikely.

TD10 also isn't very likely to receive an upgrade either but it is possible it could.

Sally and Gamma are the best bets for an upgrade, especially Gamma which has the highest likelihood in my opinion. Sally could, it's 50/50 for her in my opinion. Gamma is almost a shoe-in for me!

I don't think Nana or Marco will see a downgrade in my opinion despite higher than usual pressure for a hurricane.

Basically all the stars align in this hypothetical forecast that gets the Atlantic to record numbers in all categories aside from ACE. But c'mon........

Let's. At. Least. Get. To. Kappa! It's my favorite Greek letter and would make the Atlantic have a record amount of Tropical Cyclones altogether with 32.

Cheers!

[Shell Mound]

11-13, excluding Gamma (which will likely get upgraded in post-season analysis). Anywhere from 2-4 more hurricanes from now through November seems reasonable, due to the very warm SSTs for this time of year (more on the 2020 indicators thread) and a positive CCKW coming into the basin towards the end of the month. Perhaps up to 2 of those could become majors.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1320943395267698688



Speaking of Gamma, I looked back to 1851 for years that featured two or more hurricane strikes on Quintana Roo, Yucatán Peninsula. Besides 2020, I located 1887 (possibly three hits!), 1933, 1944, 1955, and 2005; all these years featured no more than two such hits on Quintana Roo. 2020 has featured Delta and Zeta thus far. If Gamma is upgraded to a hurricane at landfall, 2020 would set a seasonal record for total hurricane impacts on Quintana Roo. Only 1887 might match 2020, depending on reanalysis. Notably, 2020 has already set a seasonal record for hurricane impacts on Quintana Roo during the month of October: no other season featured two or more such impacts, yet 2020 has already seen Delta and Zeta in October.

[Ryxn]

I will say 15 will be the total for hurricanes with 3 more hurricanes (Eta and one other hurricane in November and one in December) as well as Gamma's upgrade

I will also say 7 for major hurricanes with Zeta becoming one, there being one more sometime in November and Sally's upgrade.

This would tied 2005' hurricane and major hurricane totals.
And I am going for 32 named storms.