Will 2020 reach hyperactive status in terms of ACE?

[NorthieStangl]

It's funny how this thread went from a "nah, too many weaklings" to arguments over what constitutes a hyperactive season to Epsilon, Zeta, and especially Eta pushing it over the threshold.

What a very bizarre season it had been.

[Dean_175]

It's funny how this thread went from a "nah, too many weaklings" to arguments over what constitutes a hyperactive season to Epsilon, Zeta, and especially Eta pushing it over the threshold.

What a very bizarre season it had been.

Lol. Let me further the conversation by pointing out that after this year, they will be using 1991-2020 climatology. I suspect average ACE will change a lot along with the cutoff values for above normal/extremely active.

Those storms put us hyperactive in the current climatology but maybe not in the upgraded one (assuming the scale continues to be based on percent-of-mean)

[ElectricStorm]

It's funny how this thread went from a "nah, too many weaklings" to arguments over what constitutes a hyperactive season to Epsilon, Zeta, and especially Eta pushing it over the threshold.

What a very bizarre season it had been.

Lol. Let me further the conversation by pointing out that after this year, they will be using 1991-2020 climatology. I suspect average ACE will change a lot along with the cutoff values for above normal/extremely active.

Those storms put us hyperactive in the current climatology but maybe not in the upgraded one

I'm throwing all ACE for this season out the window. A season with 28 storms and 5 majors (likely 6 with Zeta post season, which is one behind the record) will always be hyperactive to me, no matter what the ACE value is or what average we are using.

[toad strangler]

It's funny how this thread went from a "nah, too many weaklings" to arguments over what constitutes a hyperactive season to Epsilon, Zeta, and especially Eta pushing it over the threshold.

What a very bizarre season it had been.

Lol. Let me further the conversation by pointing out that after this year, they will be using 1991-2020 climatology. I suspect average ACE will change a lot along with the cutoff values for above normal/extremely active.

Those storms put us hyperactive in the current climatology but maybe not in the upgraded one

I'm throwing all ACE for this season out the window. A season with 28 storms and 5 majors (likely 6 with Zeta post season, which is one behind the record) will always be hyperactive to me, no matter what the ACE value is or what average we are using.

Agreed. I love the metric when used correctly. As a sole determiner it is a huge LOL.

[ElectricStorm]

Lol. Let me further the conversation by pointing out that after this year, they will be using 1991-2020 climatology. I suspect average ACE will change a lot along with the cutoff values for above normal/extremely active.

Those storms put us hyperactive in the current climatology but maybe not in the upgraded one

I'm throwing all ACE for this season out the window. A season with 28 storms and 5 majors (likely 6 with Zeta post season, which is one behind the record) will always be hyperactive to me, no matter what the ACE value is or what average we are using.

Agreed. I love the metric when used correctly. As a sole determiner it is a huge LOL.

Yeah I wish it wasn't the official metric to use to determine if a season is hyperactive or not. There are certain cases where it could work better but 2020 ain't one of em

[CyclonicFury]

I'm throwing all ACE for this season out the window. A season with 28 storms and 5 majors (likely 6 with Zeta post season, which is one behind the record) will always be hyperactive to me, no matter what the ACE value is or what average we are using.

Agreed. I love the metric when used correctly. As a sole determiner it is a huge LOL.

Yeah I wish it wasn't the official metric to use to determine if a season is hyperactive or not. There are certain cases where it could work better but 2020 ain't one of em

Perhaps there could be an alternate definition of hyperactivity meaning at least two of the following three parameters are exceeded: 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes, regardless of ACE.

[Nuno]

Agreed. I love the metric when used correctly. As a sole determiner it is a huge LOL.

Yeah I wish it wasn't the official metric to use to determine if a season is hyperactive or not. There are certain cases where it could work better but 2020 ain't one of em

Perhaps there could be an alternate definition of hyperactivity meaning at least two of the following three parameters are exceeded: 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes, regardless of ACE.

And those parameters can based on the 1991-2020 average for named storms.

[Ptarmigan]

I think number of hurricanes and major hurricanes is a way to gauge activeness.

[Hammy]

Lol. Let me further the conversation by pointing out that after this year, they will be using 1991-2020 climatology. I suspect average ACE will change a lot along with the cutoff values for above normal/extremely active.

Those storms put us hyperactive in the current climatology but maybe not in the upgraded one

I'm throwing all ACE for this season out the window. A season with 28 storms and 5 majors (likely 6 with Zeta post season, which is one behind the record) will always be hyperactive to me, no matter what the ACE value is or what average we are using.

Agreed. I love the metric when used correctly. As a sole determiner it is a huge LOL.

Again, this is NOAA's only official determinant. Personally I feel we need an activity scale based on peak intensity, rather than longevity--quite a few have pointed out you could have four short-lived Cat 5's that would come in as less than a season with several long-lived tropical storms and one long-lived Cat 5

[Nuno]

I'm throwing all ACE for this season out the window. A season with 28 storms and 5 majors (likely 6 with Zeta post season, which is one behind the record) will always be hyperactive to me, no matter what the ACE value is or what average we are using.

Agreed. I love the metric when used correctly. As a sole determiner it is a huge LOL.

Again, this is NOAA's only official determinant. Personally I feel we need an activity scale based on peak intensity, rather than longevity--quite a few have pointed out you could have four short-lived Cat 5's that would come in as less than a season with several long-lived tropical storms and one long-lived Cat 5

But when did it become the official determinant? It wasn't mentioned at all in 2005.

[cycloneye]

2020 season is hyperactive and is not over. 156.0.

[Ryxn]

Most likely not. It would take an intense burst of late season activity to get there (about 30 ACE after Delta). Not impossible, but unlikely.

It is unclear exactly when the season will wind down, but I wouldn't be surprised if Delta is the last major, or if we only have a few more named storms for the rest of the season. We are exiting the peak portion of the season, though I think we may get one more notable storm.

Delta was our fourth, possibly fifth last major (due to Zeta or Kappa). What a crazy late season it has been!

[Ryxn]

2020 season is hyperactive and is not over. 156.0.

Already 20 over that after less than 10 days....

I think ACE will end with 185-190 when all is said and down come December's end putting 2020 in the Top 10 for highest ACE value.