Interesting Nature Paper about Michael

[storm_in_a_teacup]

So this paper is a month old, but I just found out about it today:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18339-2

Apparently it argues that Tropical Storm Gordon (!) and a heat wave (!!) might be the reason Hurricane Michael rapidly intensified to a category 5 right before landfall. Gordon’s cool upwelling seems to also have swept the deeper cold water offshore, and the heat wave warmed the leftover cool surface water.

The authors argue this sort of compound event might be common in extreme weather phenomena. I’m mostly just shaking my head at how crazy connected everything is.

[SconnieCane]

Well it was pretty well known that a contributing factor to Michael's intensity was an unusual persistence of warm ridging over the southeast in late summer/fall 2018 had prevented the north Gulf SSTs from cooling like they normally would by that time of year.

The bit about Gordon is interesting since it flies in the face of what we usually think about multiple TCs passing over warm but shallow waters (the first causes upwelling and creates a cool wake that limits the intensity of the second).

[AnnularCane]

I don't know if this is the same thing or not, but I at least somewhat recall reading that Dennis in 2005 actually warmed up the waters as he moved through the Caribbean. If true, I wonder if that may have helped with Emily becoming a Cat 5.