Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[cycloneye]

Here we go!

A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over
the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of the
system will be possible thereafter while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[ElectricStorm]

Here we go!

A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over
the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of the
system will be possible thereafter while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/gb0B6D7.png

That's pretty far down there. Gonna have a lot of time and hot water to work with if it does indeed form down there

[Kingarabian]

Storm of the season? We shall see. Hopefully people are paying attention to a potentially significant threat.

[SFLcane]

Gotta repost this...

GEFS says boom!!!

[SouthFLTropics]

Well now, isn't that special. Happy hour did not fail us...

[aspen]

Here we go!

A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over
the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of the
system will be possible thereafter while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/gb0B6D7.png

That's pretty far down there. Gonna have a lot of time and hot water to work with if it does indeed form down there

While the entire Caribbean is boiling at 30C, OHC in the SWCar is pretty low, only moderate at best. However, closer to Jamaica is when OHC starts going through the roof.

[ElectricStorm]

Here we go!

A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over
the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of the
system will be possible thereafter while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/gb0B6D7.png

That's pretty far down there. Gonna have a lot of time and hot water to work with if it does indeed form down there

While the entire Caribbean is boiling at 30C, OHC in the SWCar is pretty low, only moderate at best. However, closer to Jamaica is when OHC starts going through the roof.

Yeah if it can build a core quickly and then move into that high OHC it's big yikes... It's still early of course but this storm is going to have some big potential if it tracks over the right areas

[jaxfladude]

Florida's turn? If so, which part of the state will be impacted most?
I-4 and southern parts of Florida or way too soon to know?
This just may still be a whole lot of nothing!
Another phantom system?
Extended model forecasts models are like runaway sentences, a pain!

[toad strangler]

18z GEFS was jaw dropping for interests in Cuba, the Florida peninsula, and the Bahamas Archipelago and so at this point so far out we track ...

[aspen]

I’m thinking this could be another RI-through-landfall system, but this time for Cuba. People in central Cuba will need to watch this very closely, because “future Zeta” will have up to 4-5 days between the formation of the gyre and landfall in Cuba, so if it gets organized quicker, expect a stronger storm intensifying over waters as warm as the ones that fueled Delta’s nearly record breaking ERI.

[Kingarabian]

Also how many GOM tracks this season were initially modeled too east of their actual tracks? Keep an eye on this one folks!

[aspen]

So far, it’s looking like “future Zeta” could end up like 1952’s Hurricane Fox. It formed on October 20th in the SW Caribbean and rapidly intensified into a Cat 4 before landfall in Cuba, passing over the island and becoming a hurricane in the Bahamas. This is extremely close to model of Zeta’s GFS solutions.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Fox_(1952)

[SouthFLTropics]

So back on topic... The 06z Para has finally decided to load a few more frames. It dares to be different and sends it into the Yucatan like its earlier Greek cousin Gamma.

[boca]

It could go straight into CA but I don’t think that will happen.

[ElectricStorm]

I’m thinking this could be another RI-through-landfall system, but this time for Cuba. People in central Cuba will need to watch this very closely, because “future Zeta” will have up to 4-5 days between the formation of the gyre and landfall in Cuba, so if it gets organized quicker, expect a stronger storm intensifying over waters as warm as the ones that fueled Delta’s nearly record breaking ERI.

Yep. And there probably won't be a random 30kts of shear to tear the core apart like Delta had... Or will it? Only time will tell but right now it looks like this will get rather strong

[underthwx]

I’m thinking this could be another RI-through-landfall system, but this time for Cuba. People in central Cuba will need to watch this very closely, because “future Zeta” will have up to 4-5 days between the formation of the gyre and landfall in Cuba, so if it gets organized quicker, expect a stronger storm intensifying over waters as warm as the ones that fueled Delta’s nearly record breaking ERI.

Yep. And there probably won't be a random 30kts of shear to tear the core apart like Delta had... Or will it? Only time will tell but right now it looks like this will get rather strong

Definitely one for all of you, my friends in Florida to watch for sure...

[MetroMike]

If there was going to be a Greek named storm to affect South Florida, it would be fitting that it would be called Zeta. Zeta was a longtime classic rock station in South Florida.

I thought Epsilon was the next in line?

[SouthFLTropics]

If there was going to be a Greek named storm to affect South Florida, it would be fitting that it would be called Zeta. Zeta was a longtime classic rock station in South Florida.

I thought Epsilon was the next in line?

It is, but that possible Subtropical development might steal that name.

[aspen]

If there was going to be a Greek named storm to affect South Florida, it would be fitting that it would be called Zeta. Zeta was a longtime classic rock station in South Florida.

I thought Epsilon was the next in line?

The central Atlantic AOI has a good shot of developing first and getting the name Epsilon. It too could end up being a land threat, because we totally haven’t had enough of those this season.

[gatorcane]

So back on topic... The 06z Para has finally decided to load a few more frames. It dares to be different and sends it into the Yucatan like its earlier Greek cousin Gamma.

https://i.imgur.com/L573rD2.gif

Slightly more north on the 12Z GFS para but same idea towards the Yucatan out through hour 216 so far: