Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[psyclone]

I'm definitely tuned in. there's a reason the NHC reevaluates things every 6 hours.

[LarryWx]

https://i.ibb.co/DfCTM1W/Capture1017a.jpg

No 18Z NAVGEM TC genesis technically, but as I posted it does have a surface low at hour 138 just off S FL right where the 12Z UKMET 144 has its TD.

[Spacecoast]

I've highlighted on the 18z GEFS what I think the NHC currently has @ 10% development.
The GEFS @18 hrs seems to split it's members between the north lobe, and south lobe.
NHC seems to be going with the northern group , expecting this large disturbance to consolidate to the north, and move westward over Yucatan wednesday



An alternate solution is depicted by the southern GEFS members, with the disturbance consolidating to the south, and eventually heading north toward Cuba. The UKMET may be going with this southern solution.
Approx. twelve southern members are shown @ hour 132 in bright orange (higher spread, lower confidence) represent ~37% of the original 32 members.
It's a possible solution, but the other 63% seem to go toward yucatan tightly clustered, with a norm spread of <1 (higher confidence), or never develop.

[SFLcane]

Let's see if the GEFS is still active in 6 hours and inside 100 hours in a day or two.

Likely gone at 00z maybe 1-2 members

[Kingarabian]

00z UKMET rolling soon.

[ElectricStorm]

Nothing through 120 hours on 0z GFS.

[LarryWx]

00z UKMET rolling soon.

1. The 0Z UKMET dropped TC genesis.

2. The 0Z GFS has nothing.

3. The 0Z GEFS is much less active than is the 18Z at the same time.

4. The 0Z CMC has a bit of something in the FL Straits but it soon dissipates in the same area.

In summary, bearish trends at 0Z so far. Anyone staying up for the King?

[LarryWx]

Here's the 0Z UKMET, which is nothing like the 12Z's TD. However, note the strong ridge to the north. IF there were to be anything near FL then, it would get trapped:



Next up? the King! So far it has nothing,

[Loveweather12]

Here's the 0Z UKMET, which is nothing like the 12Z's TD. However, note the strong ridge to the north. IF there were to be anything near FL then, it would get trapped:

https://i.imgur.com/Qh5fAoo.png

Next up? the King! So far it has nothing,

Their is no King among models in 2020

[SFLcane]

00z UKMET rolling soon.

1. The 0Z UKMET dropped TC genesis.

2. The 0Z GFS has nothing.

3. The 0Z GEFS is much less active than is the 18Z at the same time.

4. The 0Z CMC has a bit of something in the FL Straits but it soon dissipates in the same area.

In summary, bearish trends at 0Z so far. Anyone staying up for the King?

As I thought just a bunch of ghosts on the models. Don’t loose sleep over these models folks. Wake me up when it’s inside 100 hrs.

[chris_fit]

Well the 06z GFS and 06z GFS ENS should spark up the board a little again

[kevin]

Storm formation at 138 hours, followed by very slow but steady strengthening near Yucatan. Here we go again...

[aspen]

Looks like this broad sloppy mess in the WCar sticks around long enough for a TC to concentrate within in. This is a different scenario from a much smaller and more compact precursor low that the GFS/GFS-Para had until a few days ago, which facilitated quicker development and the system leaving the Caribbean sooner as well. With this much broader setup, who knows how long we’ll be waiting for something to concentrate out of this. It could be in the WCar, it could be in the Gulf, it could either be late-season slop or a RIing major...or nothing at all.

[GeneratorPower]

Looks like this broad sloppy mess in the WCar sticks around long enough for a TC to concentrate within in. This is a different scenario from a much smaller and more compact precursor low that the GFS/GFS-Para had until a few days ago, which facilitated quicker development and the system leaving the Caribbean sooner as well. With this much broader setup, who knows how long we’ll be waiting for something to concentrate out of this. It could be in the WCar, it could be in the Gulf, it could either be late-season slop or a RIing major...or nothing at all.

Or keeps getting pushed out in time to June 2021.

[aspen]

Lol the GFS has C4 Hurricane Zeta and C1 Hurricane Eta in the Caribbean at the end of its 06z run. Like that’s going to happen.

[underthwx]

Lol the GFS has C4 Hurricane Zeta and C1 Hurricane Eta in the Caribbean at the end of its 06z run. Like that’s going to happen.

Ya never know....but whatever...I gotta go to work....yall have a great day...

[boca]

We have 51 pages of phantom watching but it does give us something to talk about.

[SFLcane]

Is this another ghost tc? Who knows

[AutoPenalti]

With the latest update, I’d give it 2 extra days before giving GFS the axe.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1318534314716504064