Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

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Re: Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean

#961 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Oct 19, 2020 3:57 pm

Weather Dude wrote:I know NHC went down to 10/10 on their last TWO, but I'm not completely writing this one off yet. Convection looks better down there and if I forms further south than the NHC'S x, it could have more favorable conditions

It’s not even the same area as mentioned at 8am on the latest TWO?
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Re: Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean

#962 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Oct 19, 2020 3:58 pm

There’s definitely a broad spin just west of the tip of Cuba in the Yucatán Channel.
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Re: Possible SW Caribbean Development

#963 Postby LarryWx » Mon Oct 19, 2020 4:45 pm

ronjon wrote:
Loveweather12 wrote:Aren’t conditions good down there?


blp wrote:The 00z UKMET 6 days out still has a weak low over the western tip of Cuba. It is slightly stronger vorticity than the previous 12z. I still think we are going to get something out of this.

https://i.ibb.co/LtSQG0J/us-model-en-087-0-zz-modgbr-2020101900-144-1446-149.png


Yeah UKMET is pretty good at sniffing out genesis unlike some models that start with a G!


I was about to post that the UKMET has only a weak low and not TC genesis. But then when I looked at the latest output (12Z run), I realized I actually had lost track and not yet seen the newest run, which for the first time really does have a bonafide TD (1001 mb) in the NW Bahamas moving NE:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 23.8N 80.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.10.2020 132 23.8N 80.6W 1002 28
1200UTC 25.10.2020 144 25.1N 78.7W 1001 31
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Re: Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean

#964 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Oct 19, 2020 4:56 pm

12z UKMET:
Image
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Re: Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean

#965 Postby LarryWx » Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:23 pm

The 12Z UKMET had formed a weak low that crossed west central Cuba moving NNE and then at hour 132 became a TD in the FL Straits and turned NE allowing for the center to barely miss S FL on its way out:

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Re: Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean

#966 Postby chaser1 » Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:25 pm

Pretty stoked that Florida does not appear to have a significant hurricane threat for the upcoming week. Conditions just don't look favorable right now and at 10%, clearly NHC seems just as unenthusiastic regarding development. Even if Mother Nature tries to pull a bit of a surprise..... I think S. Florida could handle a TD or T.S. just fine. Who knows though, perhaps something may pop up around Halloween or in November. Going forward though, I'll be anxiously looking at models to see when our next cool front will make it down here 8-)
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Re: Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean

#967 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:31 pm

chaser1 wrote:Pretty stoked that Florida does not appear to have a significant hurricane threat for the upcoming week. Conditions just don't look favorable right now and at 10%, clearly NHC seems just as unenthusiastic regarding development. Even if Mother Nature tries to pull a bit of a surprise..... I think S. Florida could handle a TD or T.S. just fine. Who knows though, perhaps something may pop up around Halloween or in November. Going forward though, I'll be anxiously looking at models to see when our next cool front will make it down here 8-)

Shhh!!! :dont:

Don’t upset Mother Nature! :lol:
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Re: Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean

#968 Postby LarryWx » Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:39 pm

Here's the total precip from the run through only hour 126 (pre TD status), which has it as quite a wet system even when it is just a weak low in the Caribbean with an area of 10-15" of rainfall S of Cuba and 5"+ in the Keys and along the SE coast of FL!

Image


Now here's the precip for the full run, which includes 12 hours of TD status and has a 2nd area of 10-15" N of Cuba:

Image
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Re: Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean

#969 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:43 pm

Image
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Re: Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean

#970 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:48 pm

Is the area the 12z UKMET shows passing through The Bahamas in six days the same area the NHC is currently mentioning in the far NW Caribbean?
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Re: Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean

#971 Postby LarryWx » Mon Oct 19, 2020 6:00 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Is the area the 12z UKMET shows passing through The Bahamas in six days the same area the NHC is currently mentioning in the far NW Caribbean?


Great question as this is subtle/tricky and important. No, this is not the NHC TWO mentioned trough. Rather, it is a followup weak low that comes to S of Cuba moving N several days later as per this hour 84 map showing the little gray area S of Cuba while the NHC weak surface trough/low is already over the Yucatan at 1008 mb:

Image
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Re: Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean

#972 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Oct 19, 2020 6:05 pm

LarryWx wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Is the area the 12z UKMET shows passing through The Bahamas in six days the same area the NHC is currently mentioning in the far NW Caribbean?


Great question as this is subtle/tricky and important. No, this is not the NHC TWO mentioned trough. Rather, it is a followup weak low that comes to S of Cuba moving N several days later as per this map showing the little gray area S of Cuba while the NHC weak surface trough/low is already over the Yucatan at 1008 mb:

https://i.imgur.com/bVT0Zav.png

Hopefully it’s not the UKMET busting our chops now. :roll:
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Re: Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean

#973 Postby LarryWx » Mon Oct 19, 2020 6:08 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Is the area the 12z UKMET shows passing through The Bahamas in six days the same area the NHC is currently mentioning in the far NW Caribbean?


Great question as this is subtle/tricky and important. No, this is not the NHC TWO mentioned trough. Rather, it is a followup weak low that comes to S of Cuba moving N several days later as per this map showing the little gray area S of Cuba while the NHC weak surface trough/low is already over the Yucatan at 1008 mb:

https://i.imgur.com/bVT0Zav.png

Hopefully it’s not the UKMET busting our chops now. :roll:


I don't know but what needs to be emphasized is that it is a respectable model that isn't genesis happy. Aspen has been insisting something should form. I don't know if he's talking about this followup area though.
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Re: Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean

#974 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Oct 19, 2020 6:17 pm

LarryWx wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
Great question as this is subtle/tricky and important. No, this is not the NHC TWO mentioned trough. Rather, it is a followup weak low that comes to S of Cuba moving N several days later as per this map showing the little gray area S of Cuba while the NHC weak surface trough/low is already over the Yucatan at 1008 mb:

https://i.imgur.com/bVT0Zav.png

Hopefully it’s not the UKMET busting our chops now. :roll:


I don't know but what needs to be emphasized is that it is a respectable model that isn't genesis happy. Aspen has been insisting something should form. I don't know if he's talking about this followup area though.

Yeah I’m taking it more seriously considering it’s not the GFS, even the 12z EPS shows some activity in the NW Caribbean.
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Re: Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean

#975 Postby LarryWx » Mon Oct 19, 2020 6:20 pm

Oh, and here is something else I just noticed. The 12Z EPS, which is anything but genesis happy, is about the most active run yet and has a whopping 10 of 51 (20%) members with a sub 1000 mb low at some point forming from this FOLLOWUP low, not the one being watched in the NHC TWO! Two members hit S FL as a H and one hits SE LA as a H. One of the ones that hits S FL then comes back for a 2nd H landfall at Canaveral and then a 3rd one on the Panhandle from the Gulf! Three hit MX after going into the Bay of Campeche. Also, at the end of the run, there are 2 of these 10 still lurking in the GOM. Things are suddenly getting a bit more interesting for the follow-up area:

Image

Edit: I just saw that you, too, noticed the 12Z EPS.
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Re: Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean

#976 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 19, 2020 6:28 pm

LarryWx wrote:Oh, and here is something else I just noticed. The 12Z EPS, which is anything but genesis happy, is about the most active run yet and has a whopping 10 of 51 (20%) members with a sub 1000 mb low at some point forming from this FOLLOWUP low, not the one being watched in the NHC TWO! Two members hit S FL as a H and one hits SE LA as a H. One of the ones that hits S FL then comes back for a 2nd H landfall at Canaveral and then a 3rd one on the Panhandle from the Gulf! Three hit MX after going into the Bay of Campeche. Also, at the end of the run, there are 2 of these 10 still lurking in the GOM. Things are suddenly getting a bit more interesting for the follow-up area:

https://i.imgur.com/PdQR9m9.png

Edit: I just saw that you, too, noticed the 12Z EPS.


Hey Larry Well that’s interesting...

Image

Image
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Re: Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean

#977 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 19, 2020 6:31 pm

8 PM:

A trough of low pressure extends southeastward across the
northwestern Caribbean Sea to a broad low pressure system located
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized and is primarily located
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. This large disturbance is
expected to consolidate over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during
the next day or so before move drifting westward toward the Yucatan
peninsula by Wednesday. Regardless of development, the system could
bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of central and western
Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan peninsula through
midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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Re: Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean

#978 Postby chris_fit » Mon Oct 19, 2020 6:33 pm

Yo, you guys see the 18z GFS Ens? It's bringing this thing back....

Image
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Re: Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean

#979 Postby LarryWx » Mon Oct 19, 2020 6:41 pm

cycloneye wrote:8 PM:

A trough of low pressure extends southeastward across the
northwestern Caribbean Sea to a broad low pressure system located
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized and is primarily located
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea
. This large disturbance is
expected to consolidate over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during
the next day or so before move drifting westward toward the Yucatan
peninsula by Wednesday. Regardless of development, the system could
bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of central and western
Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan peninsula through
midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.


I underlined the mention about the SW Caribbean activity, which wasn't on the 2 PM TWO. The followup area that the 12Z UKMET and EPS are developing is either what's now in the SW Caribbean or maybe even one that's not showing up yet and that later comes off S America. The NHC is treating what's in both the NW and SW Caribbean sort of as one big system. it may very well be and that a subsequent area shows up in the SW Caribbean in a couple of days.
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Re: Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean

#980 Postby LarryWx » Mon Oct 19, 2020 6:52 pm

chris_fit wrote:Yo, you guys see the 18z GFS Ens? It's bringing this thing back....

https://i.imgur.com/8bpzhCH.gif


Holy moly, a true Happy Hour run! Again, this is from the followup disturbance and not what's now in the NW Caribbean. Actually, you can see in SFL's loop two distinct areas. I think that all of those GEFS runs from last week that had been starting development by tomorrow were actually partly from the current NW Car dist along with a 2nd dist. Then we saw the GEFS slipping in genesis time back toward 10/23-5, like it is now. In reality I think the reason is that it wasn't slippage after all but instead it was dropping developing the initial disturbance. Now that the GFS has given up, this 18Z GEFS is suddenly getting more hyped up about the followup disturbance just after the 12Z UKMET and EPS did the same thing. Fascinating stuff, folks! You can't make this up. It still could end up another ghost but we'll have to see in light of the 12Z UKMET and EPS!
Last edited by LarryWx on Mon Oct 19, 2020 6:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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