Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[Nuno]

I’m guessing you don’t live in South Florida, this past May was just as wet as this October with around a foot of rain here.

https://www.weather.gov/images/mfl/rtimages/cliplot/KMIA202005plotP-2.png
https://www.weather.gov/images/mfl/rtimages/cliplot/KMIA202006plotP-2.png

I've lived in South Florida my whole life and have seen a gradual shift to a later wet-season. May had a few days at the end of the month that was excessive, but otherwise the 45 day period from Mid-May to late June wasn't as wet. We're seeing a lot of extreme precipitation events that cause monthly averages to match up to climatological norms, but it's bunched up in extreme rainfall days. Take a peek at https://www.weather.gov/mfl/mia_cliplot you can see a pattern emerging if you look at the past few May and June totals. I'll take this to the Florida weather thread from here on out so we're not off topic.

Where about in South Florida do you live? I’m in Palm Beach Gardens near West Palm Beach.

Coastal Dade county.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Epsilon, located over the central Atlantic a few hundred miles
east-southeast of Bermuda.

1. A trough of low pressure extending from the southwestern to the
northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Any development of this system is
expected to be slow over the next several days as the system passes
near western or central Cuba, the Florida Straits, and the Bahamas.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible in
those areas and South Florida at times through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart/Blake

Guess who's back? (back again?)

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Epsilon, located over the central Atlantic a few hundred miles
east-southeast of Bermuda.

1. A trough of low pressure extending from the southwestern to the
northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Any development of this system is
expected to be slow over the next several days as the system passes
near western or central Cuba, the Florida Straits, and the Bahamas.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible in
those areas and South Florida at times through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart/Blake

Guess who's back? (back again?)

[Weatherboy1]

If at first you don’t succeed as an area of low pressure trying to get noticed, try try again?

[kevin]

Even if this potential future Zeta never forms, you gotta give it to him. It's not for lack of trying.

[SFLcane]

Lol... can someone post the hwrf output which covers this disturbance? I only have the nest version for the other tc out in the Atl. Look bottom left

[ElectricStorm]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Epsilon, located over the central Atlantic a few hundred miles
east-southeast of Bermuda.

1. A trough of low pressure extending from the southwestern to the
northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Any development of this system is
expected to be slow over the next several days as the system passes
near western or central Cuba, the Florida Straits, and the Bahamas.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible in
those areas and South Florida at times through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart/Blake

Guess who's back? (back again?)

https://i.imgur.com/hcKELGh.png

Here we go again ...

[AnnularCane]

Wake me when Zeta forms.

[gatorcane]

We may find that this system actually pulls moisture away from Florida as we will be in the dry side. That would be some good news with the ton of rainfall we have received this month.

[Sanibel]

Epsilon has the whole west Atlantic entrained...

It appears to me that something is trying to form in the western Caribbean...

[ElectricStorm]

There is an area of low shear down there. If it can track with the disturbance, I can see this try to spin up once it gets in the Bahamas. 56 pages in... and we're still not done folks

[Blown Away]

Latest...

[underthwx]

I just got off work....checked the NHC.....it's changed since it disappeared this morning....

[cycloneye]

8 PM:

A trough of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Development of this system is unlikely to occur during the next few
days as it passes near western or central Cuba, and moves over the
Straits of Florida. By late weekend or early next week, however,
some slow development of this system is possible while it moves
generally northeastward near the central Bahamas. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of
Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET likes this enough to make it a TD hours 120+ but it is weaker than the prior run's 997 at the end:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 25.5N 78.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.10.2020 120 25.5N 78.0W 1007 31
0000UTC 27.10.2020 132 26.7N 75.5W 1007 28
1200UTC 27.10.2020 144 26.9N 75.4W 1007 29

Interestingly, the TD becomes nearly stalled at 1444 as a new 500 mb high develops to its west and imparts a northerly 500 mb flow:



Rainfall for entire run: lots of rainfall for S FL

[ElectricStorm]

I know it's way early but looking at the NHC TWO graphic, IF this does indeed develop over the Bahamas, it may try to make a run at Bermuda so it could be yet another storm they need to keep an eye on. Again, it's way early, but just something to keep an eye on.

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS doesn't develop this.

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET still develops this into a TD but it is further east

[ElectricStorm]

1. A trough of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
which primarily extend near Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba.
Development of this system is unlikely to occur during the next few
days as it passes near western Cuba and moves over the Straits of
Florida. By late this weekend or early next week, however, some
slow development is possible while the system moves generally
northeastward from near the northwestern Bahamas toward the western
Atlantic. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible over portions of Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas
through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[SFLcane]

Convection flaring up down in the nw Caribbean this morning.

 https://twitter.com/jacksillin/status/1319221451103326208