Area of disturbed weather entering the Caribbean (Is Invest 96L)

[NDG]

Once again the GEFS ensembles are away from CA.

https://i.postimg.cc/brHtrqDB/717-E3-FD2-462-B-4-BCD-82-A9-523-AD271-EF52.jpg

This is the reason why I am not buying a C.A. track towards the EPAC. The ensembles over all favor it staying in the Caribbean side of C.A.

[SFLcane]

Quite the concentration in the nw Caribbean.

[boca]

Once again the GEFS ensembles are away from CA.

https://i.postimg.cc/brHtrqDB/717-E3-FD2-462-B-4-BCD-82-A9-523-AD271-EF52.jpg

This is the reason why I am not buying a C.A. track towards the EPAC. The ensembles over all favor it staying in the Caribbean side of C.A.

How often are the ensembles correct with potential future forecasts ?

[AutoPenalti]

There seems to be some bias going on with the upcoming MJO and the intensity of this wave. It's odd.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Quite the concentration in the nw Caribbean.

https://i.postimg.cc/P50tx4P8/CF48-D841-8-FD0-4-A30-8-BC3-D1-A002-E4-BF82.jpg

It's interesting because the 12z operational kinda splits Eta in 2..one into pac and other in nw caribbean.

[GCANE]

Wind field and convection quickly improving.
Axis well defined now.
Appears to be more along the lines of a CMC-forecasted spin-up south of PR tomorrow.
I am not believing that sharp left turn in the forecast track though.
Very likely this will be a deep warm core.

[AutoPenalti]

Wind field and convection quickly improving.
Axis well defined now.
Appears to be more along the lines of a CMC-forecasted spin-up south of PR tomorrow.
I am not believing that sharp left turn in the forecast track though.
Very likely this will be a deep warm core.

https://i.imgur.com/jJpwOIs.png

https://i.imgur.com/mf2JdFY.png

https://i.imgur.com/2mUUDF7.png

Maybe some center relocations?

[TheStormExpert]

It seems like we are in an aug or sept pattern not almost November. Climatology is totally out the window this year.

What are you saying? Storms like this can happen in all of August-November. Nothing abnormal.

[GCANE]

The sweet spot for it to develop would be under this anticyclone on Saturday

[GCANE]

Wind field and convection quickly improving.
Axis well defined now.
Appears to be more along the lines of a CMC-forecasted spin-up south of PR tomorrow.
I am not believing that sharp left turn in the forecast track though.
Very likely this will be a deep warm core.

https://i.imgur.com/jJpwOIs.png

https://i.imgur.com/mf2JdFY.png

https://i.imgur.com/2mUUDF7.png

Maybe some center relocations?

Almost a guarantee with waves

[NDG]

Once again the GEFS ensembles are away from CA.

https://i.postimg.cc/brHtrqDB/717-E3-FD2-462-B-4-BCD-82-A9-523-AD271-EF52.jpg

This is the reason why I am not buying a C.A. track towards the EPAC. The ensembles over all favor it staying in the Caribbean side of C.A.

How often are the ensembles correct with potential future forecasts ?

I am going to give a recent example, Zeta. When the disturbance entered the scene in the Caribbean, just about all global models' operational runs were quickly developing a system and shooting it off NE across Cuba into the Bahamas while the ensembles mean kept lowering pressures in the western Caribbean. The same thing is happening with this system, the ensemble means keep lowering pressures in the central and western Caribbean immediately after the globals' operational runs track their developed system across central America. It will not make any sense that another system would develop right away after the first moves across the C.A. Is one or the other. IMO.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanemanwx/status/1321903124936876038

[Deshaunrob17]

It seems like we are in an aug or sept pattern not almost November. Climatology is totally out the window this year.

What are you saying? Storms like this can happen in all of August-November. Nothing abnormal.

In September I remember talking about November surprise during La Niña years.. Very common for there to be a November hurricane in the Caribbean during La Niña. Eg Paloma 2008, Tomas 2010, 2016 had a major that ran in Central America

[supercane4867]

Just because it crossed over into EPAC doesn't necessarily mean it can't go back to the Atlantic side...

As I said, Mitch almost touched EPAC waters after moving inland over Central America. Ensemble runs do imply a similar setup(stall over Honduras or even into EPAC before eventually getting lifted)

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1321910455695265792

[NDG]

Just because it crossed over into EPAC doesn't necessarily mean it can't go back to the Atlantic side...

As I said, Mitch almost touched EPAC waters after moving inland over Central America. Ensemble runs do imply a similar setup(stall over Honduras or even into EPAC before eventually getting lifted)

https://i.imgur.com/opEqWl4.png

I remember Mitch, it was supposed to eventually move northward towards the US quicker than what it actually happened, by it staying inland longer than forecasted it was a much weaker system after it re-emerged over water.

[northjaxpro]

The sweet spot for it to develop would be under this anticyclone on Saturday

https://i.imgur.com/5Q8cNcG.png

I mentioned in a post a few pages back that development could happen as early as this Saturday, but I am thinking Sunday could be the day.

[boca]

It seems like we are in an aug or sept pattern not almost November. Climatology is totally out the window this year.

What are you saying? Storms like this can happen in all of August-November. Nothing abnormal.

I was referring to the track going against the traditional NE track we get in November.

[Blown Away]

Just because it crossed over into EPAC doesn't necessarily mean it can't go back to the Atlantic side...

As I said, Mitch almost touched EPAC waters after moving inland over Central America. Ensemble runs do imply a similar setup(stall over Honduras or even into EPAC before eventually getting lifted)




https://i.imgur.com/opEqWl4.png

I remember Mitch, it was supposed to eventually move northward towards the US quicker than what it actually happened, by it staying inland longer than forecasted it was a much weaker system after it re-emerged over water.

It moved across the FL peninsula and exited @WPB... If I remember correctly it was @65mph TS... It was moving fast at that time and cool storm to watch that didn’t create a bunch of damage...

[TheStormExpert]

It seems like we are in an aug or sept pattern not almost November. Climatology is totally out the window this year.

What are you saying? Storms like this can happen in all of August-November. Nothing abnormal.

I was referring to the track going against the traditional NE track we get in November.

You can get either or in November.