Area of disturbed weather entering the Caribbean (Is Invest 96L)

[SFLcane]

All the 12z EPS eject this NE over Cuba and The Bahamas then OTS, with no threat to Florida.

https://twitter.com/hurricanemanwx/status/1321223005155020806

Yep, it’s gone heading out to sea.

I have an image for you from Zeta.

[Spacecoast]

I also have an (gfs-Para) image for you from Zeta....

[SconnieCane]

I also have an (gfs-Para) image for you from Zeta....
https://i.postimg.cc/TwGpycFt/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh168-384.gif

This one belongs in the model run hall of fame right next to that one run where the (pre-upgrade) HWRF broke itself trying to make Typhoon Manghkut into a Great Red Spot-level superstorm in 2018.

[SFLcane]

I also have an (gfs-Para) image for you from Zeta....
https://i.postimg.cc/TwGpycFt/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh168-384.gif

That 12z para is not as outrageous not close. Again if something develops the Florida peninsula is certainly still at risk.

[SFLcane]

Not saying para will verify but what’s so unrealistic to have a hurricane moving ne into the Bahamas in November then get trapped by a ridge? Especially in 2020 given the stubborn ridging already in place

[SFLcane]

18z eps already picking this up @ 138hrs

[TheStormExpert]

The North Atlantic Oscillation is to remain positive so either this moves into Central America or is another northern Gulf Coast threat in my opinion. Florida is at risk but not at high risk at the moment.

[Spacecoast]

Not saying para will verify but what’s so unrealistic to have a hurricane moving ne into the Bahamas in November then get trapped by a ridge? Especially in 2020 given the stubborn ridging already in place

It's not unrealistic at all. There may be countless realistic solutions. The model sees what the model sees, and changes radically each run.
It may be unrealistic to put much faith in any specific solution 10-16 days out on a storm that hasn't formed yet. I will wait for some more agreement on genesis time, and location before speculating on tracks.

18z GFS, 12z UKM and 18z NAV do not indicate genesis in next 168hr. 12z. CMC has 26% genesis @162hr, but slams into Yucatan.
Brammers site has not indicated genesis genesis from GEFS, or ECMF ens, yet, but I've seen ~50% ECMF genesis prob posted earlier this thread.
I am taking this seriously, and do not believe these are ghost runs, but so far they are still all over the map. Literally.

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS has a weak low over CA through hour 180. The GFS is showing its 2020 EPAC bias again this run.

[gatorcane]

Quiet thread this morning and I can see why looking at the models which unanimously bring this into Central America or show weak development.

[Loveweather12]

Quiet thread this morning and I can see why looking at the models which unanimously bring this into Central America or show weak development.

Things will change as they always do in the model runs. People might be more focused on Zeta making landfall soon or might just be sleeping from work & stuff they do in a day.

[aspen]

Quiet thread this morning and I can see why looking at the models which unanimously bring this into Central America or show weak development.

We’re in that same stage that we were with pre-Zeta: after many aggressive model runs, nearly all of the globals drop this, leaving it up to the ensembles, and people start doubting this’ll ever form.

[Jr0d]

Quiet thread this morning and I can see why looking at the models which unanimously bring this into Central America or show weak development.

We’re in that same stage that we were with pre-Zeta: after many aggressive model runs, nearly all of the globals drop this, leaving it up to the ensembles, and people start doubting this’ll ever form.

Seems like the overnight models are more bearish and daytime models are bullish. Not as strong of an ensemble signal this morning and more taking it to CA.

It does like lile the timing of low forming is looking later based on ensembles. If development keeps getting pushed back, maube this thread will rival the pre Zeta thread.

[SouthFLTropics]

FWIW... yesterday's 18z Para buries it into Central America but it appears that by hour 384 the remnants end up in the Bahamas. Nothing crazy like yesterday's 12z run of the Para. Today's 00z run of the Para is up to hour 150 right now with missing frames but it does show development to the east of Central America once again. We'll have to wait for the rest of the run to see where it goes from there.

[tomatkins]

Yikes!

https://i.imgur.com/kYFhOro.gif

It had a run like this pre-Zeta also.

Until a low actually forms, the models are more or less for entertainment value.

The thing is, it had a similar solution several runs in a row, telling us was that there was going to be a ridge building in for long enough that the climatologically likely solutions (NE over Cuba or W into Central America) weren't the only possible solutions. But the storm took its time forming, so it didnt get pulled NE at all. By the time it formed, the ridge was in place.

[tomatkins]

FWIW... yesterday's 18z Para buries it into Central America but it appears that by hour 384 the remnants end up in the Bahamas. Nothing crazy like yesterday's 12z run of the Para. Today's 00z run of the Para is up to hour 150 right now with missing frames but it does show development to the east of Central America once again. We'll have to wait for the rest of the run to see where it goes from there.

It definitely seems like its going to be something of a close call. If it moves into CA, it presumably dies out, whereas, it might not get quite that far west, then it should move out over Cuba. After that, its likely to go out to sea (or at least not threaten FL - mabye NE/Atlantic Canada.)

[cp79]

FWIW... yesterday's 18z Para buries it into Central America but it appears that by hour 384 the remnants end up in the Bahamas. Nothing crazy like yesterday's 12z run of the Para. Today's 00z run of the Para is up to hour 150 right now with missing frames but it does show development to the east of Central America once again. We'll have to wait for the rest of the run to see where it goes from there.

Makes more sense. Yesterday’s run was a joke and completely unrealistic, especially with a pretty strong front expected to move through Florida Monday. They’re call for highs in the upper 60s to low 70s here in Tampa. That should either sweep out to sea or block any storm from hitting Fla. The CA solution makes sense, too. But I think the season-ending front that comes next week should keep the US safe.

[aspen]

With the way 2020 has been going, I’m anticipating Eta to somehow find its way north into either the Yucatán or the Gulf.

[AutoPenalti]

FWIW... yesterday's 18z Para buries it into Central America but it appears that by hour 384 the remnants end up in the Bahamas. Nothing crazy like yesterday's 12z run of the Para. Today's 00z run of the Para is up to hour 150 right now with missing frames but it does show development to the east of Central America once again. We'll have to wait for the rest of the run to see where it goes from there.

Makes more sense. Yesterday’s run was a joke and completely unrealistic, especially with a pretty strong front expected to move through Florida Monday. They’re call for highs in the upper 60s to low 70s here in Tampa. That should either sweep out to sea or block any storm from hitting Fla. The CA solution makes sense, too. But I think the season-ending front that comes next week should keep the US safe.

Not according to the Euro and GFS.

[CourierPR]

So no system yet, but we already have the ejectors, those ready to lead burial rites, and those who are certain beyond all reasonable doubt that it will miss Florida all lining up to put in their two cents worth. Hand me some popcorn.