How many storms will December feature?

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Ryxn
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Re: Will December feature a hurricane this year?

#21 Postby Ryxn » Fri Nov 13, 2020 5:12 pm

Since the consensus is that December will likely feature a named storm or 2, I changed the thread title to something more risky. Storms forming in late November and strengthening into a hurricane in December also count as a December cane.
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Re: Will December feature a hurricane this year?

#22 Postby Weather Dude » Fri Nov 13, 2020 5:16 pm

Going with a strong no. The only thing I see forming is a short lived TS. As crazy as this season has been, it has to slow down at some point...
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Re: Will December feature a hurricane this year?

#23 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Nov 13, 2020 5:46 pm

Well... again since 2005 featured a hurricane and a tropical storm in December and we are absolutely nuts in November far beyond what 2005 had to offer, this would be the year to do it if it was gonna happen; that said, it'll take a break in the constant Atlantic troughing OR for the Caribbean to somehow stay favorable so hard to say.
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Re: Will December feature a hurricane this year?

#24 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Nov 13, 2020 5:50 pm

EquusStorm wrote:Well... again since 2005 featured a hurricane and a tropical storm in December and we are absolutely nuts in November far beyond what 2005 had to offer, this would be the year to do it if it was gonna happen; that said, it'll take a break in the constant Atlantic troughing OR for the Caribbean to somehow stay favorable so hard to say.

Unlike 2005 we haven't had a ton of late season mid-latitude genesis events. A hyperactive season does not by any means guarantee December genesis. 1995 and 2017 abruptly shut off in early November. November 1932 had 70 ACE (including a Category 5 and a Category 2) and went on to have nothing in December.
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Re: Will December feature a hurricane this year?

#25 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Nov 13, 2020 6:00 pm

Yeah 2005's mid-latitude pattern was much more favorable. Kinda doubting we get the same high latitude spam we did that year but waters remain very warm so who knows? Wouldn't take much if we got a blocking pattern for a bit
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Re: Will December feature a hurricane this year?

#26 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Nov 13, 2020 6:27 pm

We may see another November hurricane in the Caribbean behind Iota, if one believes the GFS.
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Re: Will December feature a hurricane this year?

#27 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Nov 14, 2020 7:08 pm

Re: the 1932 comparison, before the satellite era it is very possible there were storms in the deep Atlantic that were missed. Delta, Epsilon and Zeta in 2005 may not have been recorded before satellites came around.
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Re: Will December feature a hurricane this year?

#28 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:47 pm

We need a poll here: How many named storms will form in December?'

* Zero
* One
* Two
* Three or more

It is insane to think we need one, but something tells me November 30 will not be the end this year.
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Re: How many storms will December feature?

#29 Postby Ryxn » Wed Nov 25, 2020 5:05 pm

Changed the title as there is good concensus that a significant low pressure system will form around November 30 that could gain subtropical or tropical characteristics.

How many storms do you think will form?
□None forming in December, but one forming in late November
□None existing or forming in December
□1
□2 or more
Last edited by Ryxn on Wed Nov 25, 2020 6:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: How many storms will December feature?

#30 Postby Weather Dude » Wed Nov 25, 2020 6:13 pm

Ryxn wrote:Changed the title as there is good concensus that a significant low pressure system will form around November 30 that could gain subtropical or tropical characteristics.

How many storms do you think will form?
□None forming in December, but one forming in late November
□None existing or forming in December
□1
□2
□3 or more

Possibly 1 weak system in the Subtropics, nothing more than that
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Re: How many storms will December feature?

#31 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Dec 19, 2020 12:42 am

Looks like, despite 2020, it will most likely end up being zero after all.
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Re: How many storms will December feature?

#32 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Dec 19, 2020 10:57 am

I was so sure we'd have a little something in December this year. Who knew activity would just quit like that? :hmm:
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Re: How many storms will December feature?

#33 Postby Teban54 » Sat Dec 19, 2020 11:50 am

It's almost as if 2020 desperately tried for a Cat 5 by pumping out everything it can, and once it got one, it just don't bother with storms anymore.
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Re: How many storms will December feature?

#34 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Dec 27, 2020 12:35 pm

So far no storms.
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