Area in SW Caribbean

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cycloneye
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Area in SW Caribbean

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 15, 2020 12:34 pm

This is insane.

Another area of low pressure could form in a few days over the
central or southwestern Caribbean Sea. Development, if any, of
this system is expected to be slow to occur late this week while
the system moves slowly westward across the southwestern Caribbean
Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


Image
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Re: Possible development in SW Caribbean

#2 Postby SconnieCane » Sun Nov 15, 2020 12:41 pm

Uncle!
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Re: Possible development in SW Caribbean

#3 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Nov 15, 2020 12:44 pm

The fact that Iota icon overlaps with it makes the map cursed.

 https://twitter.com/hurricanemanwx/status/1328030383775035392


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Re: Possible development in SW Caribbean

#4 Postby MarioProtVI » Sun Nov 15, 2020 12:47 pm

At this point this is torture :lol: :x
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Re: Possible development in SW Caribbean

#5 Postby Laminar » Sun Nov 15, 2020 1:29 pm

MarioProtVI wrote:At this point this is torture :lol: :x


Imagine living it...in November!
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Re: Possible development in SW Caribbean

#6 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Nov 15, 2020 1:33 pm

Only the GFS develops this.
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Re: Possible development in SW Caribbean

#7 Postby underthwx » Sun Nov 15, 2020 1:45 pm

cycloneye wrote:This is insane.

Another area of low pressure could form in a few days over the
central or southwestern Caribbean Sea. Development, if any, of
this system is expected to be slow to occur late this week while
the system moves slowly westward across the southwestern Caribbean
Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


https://i.imgur.com/dVkjpKi.png

2020 post season analysis ought to make for good reading...should explain why the activity has persisted...
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Re: Possible development in SW Caribbean

#8 Postby aspen » Sun Nov 15, 2020 1:50 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:Only the GFS develops this.

So far it’s the only model that develops a TC. The Euro, ICON, and HWRF-P all show a broad low in the SWCar in the 4-7 day range.
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Re: Possible development in SW Caribbean

#9 Postby SconnieCane » Sun Nov 15, 2020 2:09 pm

aspen wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:Only the GFS develops this.

So far it’s the only model that develops a TC. The Euro, ICON, and HWRF-P all show a broad low in the SWCar in the 4-7 day range.


Oh boy, where have we heard this story before? :roll:
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Re: Possible development in SW Caribbean

#10 Postby kevin » Sun Nov 15, 2020 4:55 pm

2020, no. But seriously when will this season end. At least it's just GFS developing it now, but on the other hand a similar story occured for a lot of storms this season with the other models joining in later.
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Re: Possible development in SW Caribbean

#11 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Nov 15, 2020 5:57 pm

2020 literally just refuses to stop... Hopefully it's a phantom
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Re: Possible development in SW Caribbean

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 15, 2020 6:27 pm

An area of low pressure could form in a few days over the central or
southwestern Caribbean Sea. Development, if any, of this system
should be slow to occur late this week while it moves slowly
westward across the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: Possible development in SW Caribbean

#13 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:37 pm

Oh, I thought we finished Hurricane season after Iota
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Re: Possible development in SW Caribbean

#14 Postby KatDaddy » Sun Nov 15, 2020 8:07 pm

2020 continues onward. Hopefully no tropical development after Iota
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Re: Possible development in SW Caribbean

#15 Postby Ryxn » Mon Nov 16, 2020 7:04 am

While likely-Category 5 Iota is dominating the forums currently, it's worth noting odds have increased some bit. Don't be surprise to see an orange later today...

1. A new area of low pressure could form in a few days over the central
or southwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, some gradual development
could occur late this week while the system moves slowly westward
across the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: Possible development in SW Caribbean

#16 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Nov 16, 2020 12:34 pm

Code orange... 2020 just refuses to stop :double:
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Re: Possible development in SW Caribbean

#17 Postby weeniepatrol » Mon Nov 16, 2020 12:39 pm

Yikes

A new area of low pressure could form in a couple of days over the
central or southwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions
should favor some subsequent development, and a tropical depression
could form by the end of the week while the system moves slowly
westward or west-southwestward across the southwestern Caribbean
Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: Possible development in SW Caribbean

#18 Postby underthwx » Mon Nov 16, 2020 12:41 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:Yikes

A new area of low pressure could form in a couple of days over the
central or southwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions
should favor some subsequent development, and a tropical depression
could form by the end of the week while the system moves slowly
westward or west-southwestward across the southwestern Caribbean
Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Lord help us.... I forgot about this....
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Re: Possible development in SW Caribbean

#19 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 16, 2020 12:42 pm

12z GFS shows a tiny TC into Panama. If future Kappa get to CAT1 it could be the first ever hurricane to hit Panama. Can't get more 2020 than this
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Re: Possible development in SW Caribbean

#20 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 16, 2020 1:21 pm

supercane4867 wrote:12z GFS shows a tiny TC into Panama. If future Kappa get to CAT1 it could be the first ever hurricane to hit Panama. Can't get more 2020 than this


2020 doesn't want to quit.
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