Since Iota wants to be Eta 2.0 and is starting a phase of RI, I feel it’s fitting to once again have an intensity speculation thread for it.
I’m feeling bullish with Iota: 145 kt and 910 mbar at the maximum, 130 kt and 930 mbar at the minimum.
How intense will Iota get?
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How intense will Iota get?
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: How intense will Iota get?
150 mph, and whatever millobars that is...
Last edited by underthwx on Sun Nov 15, 2020 4:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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CyclonicFury
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Re: How intense will Iota get?
125 knots, 940 millibars.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
Re: How intense will Iota get?
I'll go with 2.5 mb/hr average deepening up until landfall. Considering landfall is about 24 hours from now I get 974-2.5*24 = 914 mbar. Since there are always a few plateaus during deepening I'll bring it up to 920 mbar. Winds are a bit more difficult to predict, I think this will be another cat 4/cat 5 edge case. But since we'll probably have recon in Iota during its peak and 920 mbar corresponds to a T# of ~7.0, I'm gonna go with 140 kts which would give this crazy season its cat 5. So 920 mbar and 140 kts. However, the 125 - 135 kt range is also certainly a realistic forecast. I hope an unexpected EWRC can weaken it a bit, but even if that happens I don't think this will be anything less than a cat 4 at landfall. Even a fairly slow deepening rate (considering the structure of the system) of 1.5 mbar/hr would bring it into the 930s. Another devastating hit for Nicaragua and Honduras.
Last edited by kevin on Sun Nov 15, 2020 5:00 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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shiny-pebble
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Re: How intense will Iota get?
120knts 930 mb
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Not an meteorologist! Just someone who is interested in weather. Please refer to the NHC and local weather officials to make decisions.
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NXStumpy_Robothing
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Re: How intense will Iota get?
135kt, 920 mb, just so this place loses it again 
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ElectricStorm
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Re: How intense will Iota get?
Every time we've made one of these threads this year for a storm that's had a chance at Cat 5, it's failed to do so lol. In all seriousness though I don't really see anything preventing it from becoming a Cat 4+ into CA. I'll go with 130kts/930mb.
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
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Shell Mound
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Re: How intense will Iota get?
Weather Dude wrote:Every time we've made one of these threads this year for a storm that's had a chance at Cat 5, it's failed to do so lol.
2020: “Challenge accepted.”
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CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: How intense will Iota get?
Shell Mound wrote:Weather Dude wrote:Every time we've made one of these threads this year for a storm that's had a chance at Cat 5, it's failed to do so lol.
2020: “Challenge accepted.”
For real lol. I stand corrected
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
Boomer Sooner!
Re: How intense will Iota get?
Weather Dude wrote:Shell Mound wrote:Weather Dude wrote:Every time we've made one of these threads this year for a storm that's had a chance at Cat 5, it's failed to do so lol.
2020: “Challenge accepted.”
For real lol. I stand corrected
Iota heard you!!
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Re: How intense will Iota get?
Based on the latest recon pass I think there is a pretty good chance that this has peaked already so that would mean a peak of 917 mbar, 140 kts. Almost predicted the correct peak, but I was 3 mbars off in terms of pressure.
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