Which is more insane? July 2005 or Nov 2020?

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Cyclenall
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Which is more insane? July 2005 or Nov 2020?

#1 Postby Cyclenall » Mon Nov 16, 2020 1:27 pm

Let's say Eta is upgraded to a CAT5, so that makes two CAT5s within weeks and both in Nov, which month edges out? I don't know, they are basically equal due to the time apart from peak hurricane season. We would have to get exact with days and decide if its harder to get these early or late. I don't know if ACE should play a part due to steering currents being different and July having more warm air at the upper levels so when Dennis got in the Gulf he didn't transition to a hybrid. We have a history of a CAT5 occurring in Nov despite only 1 that I know of but none in July before 2005.
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Re: Which is more insane? July 2005 or Nov 2020?

#2 Postby Weather Dude » Mon Nov 16, 2020 1:28 pm

I'd put em as equal honestly. Both insane in their own right
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Re: Which is more insane? July 2005 or Nov 2020?

#3 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 16, 2020 3:44 pm

I'd rank them about equal for insanity. Dennis was a strong 4 and Emily a 5.
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Re: Which is more insane? July 2005 or Nov 2020?

#4 Postby Ryxn » Mon Nov 16, 2020 4:00 pm

I'd say equal, especially because Dennis and Emily had such long, classic Caribbean cruiser tracks. They both traversed the Caribbean AND Gulf but in a different orientation and Emily was swift to form after Dennis. The 5/3/2 (TS/H/MH) count though is crazy. Though crazy November 2020 could end up with 4/3/2 or dare I say 4/3/3
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Re: Which is more insane? July 2005 or Nov 2020?

#5 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Nov 22, 2020 11:49 am

I say equal.
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Re: Which is more insane? July 2005 or Nov 2020?

#6 Postby ncforecaster89 » Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:52 pm

I’m going with July 2005, as I believe it’s a little more difficult to duplicate that feat in comparison to what has occurred this November. More specifically, getting two near Cat fives (Cat 4+/5) in the early to middle part of July is a little more impressive to me than getting two Cat fives, during the early to middle part of November...especially considering where both Dennis and Emily originated...corresponding to a higher degree of difficulty, climatologically.
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Re: Which is more insane? July 2005 or Nov 2020?

#7 Postby Nuno » Mon Nov 23, 2020 7:37 am

I feel July 2005 & Nov 2020 are mostly equal, maybe a slight edge to the latter for the greek factor.
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Re: Which is more insane? July 2005 or Nov 2020?

#8 Postby kevin » Mon Nov 23, 2020 8:25 am

At the moment I'd say it's equal, but if Eta gets a post-season cat 5 upgrade I would give the edge to Nov 2020. But either way, both were absolutely crazy months.
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Re: Which is more insane? July 2005 or Nov 2020?

#9 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 23, 2020 9:04 am

I’d give it to November 2020. Eta was by far the most impressive storm of the two months, and it’s likely Eta and Iota were both sub-920 Cat 5s, plus the fact that they were the complete opposite of what the Greeks are expected to be: incredibly intense and devastating major hurricanes worthy of retirement. The two of them are highly likely to lead to at least some people in the WMO reconsidering the Greek naming system.

Also, Eta (>130 kt/<923 mbar) and Iota (140 kt/917 mbar) were both stronger than Dennis (130 kt/930 mbar) and Emily (140 kt/926 mbar).
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Re: Which is more insane? July 2005 or Nov 2020?

#10 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Nov 24, 2020 3:08 pm

If we get these late month storms in the open Atlantic (Bermuda area and far eastern Atlantic), they would be basically the Franklin and Gert of November 2020 (even though I doubt Theta gets an upgrade to hurricane post-season, the data seemed conclusive for 60 kt). That would be basically a draw.
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Re: Which is more insane? July 2005 or Nov 2020?

#11 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Nov 26, 2020 3:41 pm

Dennis 150/930-Eta 150/923 and Emily 160/929-Iota 160/917 are remarkably similar and in fact tied based entirely on wind speed... though the 2005 storms lasted longer. 2020's November storms are stronger, but we HAVE had multiple cat 4's and a 5 in November before while July category fours are rarer... I'd honestly say they are equally impressive. Am old enough to remember Lenny, Michelle, and Paloma, but really only Bertha 2008 comes anywhere in the same order of magnitude as the July 2005 storms falling just below cat 4. November however only sees a storm every few years so multiple massive November storms is more impressive than multiple massive July storms, since just three years after 2005's pair we had the Bertha/Dolly cat 3/2 pair. All and all I'd say they're both insane to an unprecedented degree equally!

And I really really hope some people don't start expecting a 2020 November like they do a 2005 July lmao
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Re: Which is more insane? July 2005 or Nov 2020?

#12 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Nov 26, 2020 4:16 pm

EquusStorm wrote:
And I really really hope some people don't start expecting a 2020 November like they do a 2005 July lmao



But unlike July, November isn't considered too early to cancel the season. :)
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Re: Which is more insane? July 2005 or Nov 2020?

#13 Postby Shell Mound » Mon Dec 28, 2020 1:04 pm

ncforecaster89 wrote:I’m going with July 2005, as I believe it’s a little more difficult to duplicate that feat in comparison to what has occurred this November. More specifically, getting two near Cat fives (Cat 4+/5) in the early to middle part of July is a little more impressive to me than getting two Cat fives, during the early to middle part of November...especially considering where both Dennis and Emily originated...corresponding to a higher degree of difficulty, climatologically.

:uarrow: This.
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Re: Which is more insane? July 2005 or Nov 2020?

#14 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:14 am

Tbh I think they are insane in their own right, like getting a Cat 4 and a Cat 5 hurricane (let alone having the Cat 5 have a long typical Cape Verde storm track through the Caribbean) in JULY is climatologically impressive, and getting a Cat 4 and Cat 5 hurricane in November is also quite a rare event. I think July 2005 was insane mainly because if you look at historical records, I think there was only 1 Cat 4 in July (in 1926 I believe) and never a Cat 5 in that month until 2005. However, November 2020 was insane mainly because while Cat 4s in November are not unheard of, Cat 5s then are extremely rare (the only other one occurring in 1932), and with both of those storms being Greek-named and causing unforeseen and widespread death, damage, and chaos, sometimes I wonder (and we'll find out when WMO meets again in 2021) whether Eta and Iota could even convince scientists to change the way they name Atlantic storms, especially if a season in the future goes over 21 storms again. So with the "rarity factor," "Greekness," and potential to influence a change in the naming method in the Atlantic basin, I personally feel like November 2020 was the insaner of the 2 months.
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