Most significant storms that models didn't see coming

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Ryxn
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Most significant storms that models didn't see coming

#1 Postby Ryxn » Tue Nov 17, 2020 6:22 am

Here we will discuss the strongest or most significant/surprising tropical cyclones not predicted by any models until well.....when the storm was forming.

Thoughts and examples?
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Re: Most significant storms that models didn't see coming

#2 Postby underthwx » Tue Nov 17, 2020 7:46 am

Ryxn wrote:Here we will discuss the strongest or most significant/surprising tropical cyclones not predicted by any models until well.....when the storm was forming.

Thoughts and examples?

Rynx...I don't know if anyone has mentioned it to you...but you have started some good threads, with excellent topics....let me think on your new one....
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Re: Most significant storms that models didn't see coming

#3 Postby TyphoonNara » Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:26 am

Ryxn wrote:Here we will discuss the strongest or most significant/surprising tropical cyclones not predicted by any models until well.....when the storm was forming.

Thoughts and examples?


Do significant storms that have weak initial model runs/advisory count?

If this is the case one significant candidate in mind would be Super Typhoon Goni this year. Most models kept it quite weak when it was just an invest. EURO deepened it to the 970s while the GFS deepened it to the 950s. Even JTWC's initial advisory predicted the storm to be just a 105kt cat 3. Well... everyone knows what happened at the end. It became one of the strongest storms in history by satellite estimates, with estimated wind speeds of 170kt and a central pressure of 884mb by JTWC (these couldn't be verified though, without recon).

On the contrary, models were really aggressive with Goni's twin, Atsani, initially. Even the conservative EURO deepened Atsani to the 910s or the 920s. Opposite to Goni, this became one of the greatest busts in history.
Last edited by TyphoonNara on Tue Nov 17, 2020 2:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Most significant storms that models didn't see coming

#4 Postby Kazmit » Tue Nov 17, 2020 9:15 am

Michael comes to mind. I remember it was supposed to be nothing more than a mid-range TS when it formed, four days before landfall.
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Re: Most significant storms that models didn't see coming

#5 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Nov 17, 2020 9:44 am

The biggest model/forecast bust in terms of intensity will forever belong to Hurricane Patricia 2015.

Image
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Re: Most significant storms that models didn't see coming

#6 Postby MarioProtVI » Tue Nov 17, 2020 12:16 pm

supercane4867 wrote:The biggest model/forecast bust in terms of intensity will forever belong to Hurricane Patricia 2015.

https://i.imgur.com/3QIvpak.png

If I recall part of the reason why the forecast intensity busted so hard was because the RI indexes weren’t functioning during the storm which severely limited how much NHC could go by.


EDIT: Yup, that’s what the TCR said:

The official intensity forecasts severely underestimated the rapid intensification that occurred and failed to explicitly show rapid intensification until it was actually occurring. It should be noted, however, that the SHIPS Rapid Intensity (RI) guidance was temporarily unavailable before Patricia’s rapid intensification began due to missing satellite inputs. Having these data in real time would likely have resulted in higher intensity forecasts than those that were made.
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Re: Most significant storms that models didn't see coming

#7 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Nov 17, 2020 12:26 pm

There are a lot to choose from (especially in 2020 when the ECMWF has been unable to predict a strong TC forming outside of the short range), but one that really stands out to me was Hurricane Dorian last year.

ECMWF did not see it coming at all. GFS had been intermittently showing a weak tropical storm that would dissipate over the eastern Caribbean. It was not until the center reformed that models indicated it would become a strong hurricane near the Bahamas, when it became clear the center would miss Hispaniola.
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Re: Most significant storms that models didn't see coming

#8 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 17, 2020 12:37 pm

I believe the models weren’t very excited with Halong prior to its development. It exceeded all expectations and was very close to a perfect T#8.0 Super Typhoon. This was a stark contrast to Hagibis a few weeks prior, whose RI phase and extreme intensity were very will anticipated by the models; the GFS, Euro, and UKMET all went sub-905 at least once.
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Re: Most significant storms that models didn't see coming

#9 Postby Weather Dude » Tue Nov 17, 2020 12:40 pm

Can we go the other way too? If so, I'd like to nominate Typhoon Kammuri. If I recall correctly, at one point there was talk about Kammuri becoming Haiyan 2.0, with pretty much every model making it a monster Cat 5. Instead, it struggled big time for most of its life and "only" became a lower end Cat 4
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Re: Most significant storms that models didn't see coming

#10 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Nov 17, 2020 12:55 pm

As CyclonicFury mentioned, Hurricane Dorian had very poor model support all around. Many models didn't even notice it until after it formed.

This season, I recall storms like Laura and Sally weren't even noticed by the Euro and GFS until after it formed. Even then, they initially didn't have these storms being big threats at first.
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Re: Most significant storms that models didn't see coming

#11 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:01 pm

Weather Dude wrote:Can we go the other way too? If so, I'd like to nominate Typhoon Kammuri. If I recall correctly, at one point there was talk about Kammuri becoming Haiyan 2.0, with pretty much every model making it a monster Cat 5. Instead, it struggled big time for most of its life and "only" became a lower end Cat 4

Kammuri in the WPac and Nisarga in the Arabian Sea were both systems that the Euro seriously overestimated, only for them to end up significantly weaker than modeled. This seems to be the beginning of the Euro’s ongoing poor performance: unable to sniff out a Cat 5 just a few days in advance, and sometimes blowing up systems far beyond what they actually become (see the Euro’s Cat 5 runs for Atsani and post-CA Eta).
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Re: Most significant storms that models didn't see coming

#12 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Nov 17, 2020 3:15 pm

Harvey 2017.
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Re: Most significant storms that models didn't see coming

#13 Postby Ryxn » Tue Nov 17, 2020 6:15 pm

underthwx wrote:
Ryxn wrote:Here we will discuss the strongest or most significant/surprising tropical cyclones not predicted by any models until well.....when the storm was forming.

Thoughts and examples?

Rynx...I don't know if anyone has mentioned it to you...but you have started some good threads, with excellent topics....let me think on your new one....


Thanks! :)
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Re: Most significant storms that models didn't see coming

#14 Postby underthwx » Tue Nov 17, 2020 6:18 pm

Ryxn wrote:
underthwx wrote:
Ryxn wrote:Here we will discuss the strongest or most significant/surprising tropical cyclones not predicted by any models until well.....when the storm was forming.

Thoughts and examples?

Rynx...I don't know if anyone has mentioned it to you...but you have started some good threads, with excellent topics....let me think on your new one....


Thanks! :)

Youre welcome!
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Re: Most significant storms that models didn't see coming

#15 Postby DestinHurricane » Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:11 pm

All time, Michael.

This year, probably Sally.
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Re: Most significant storms that models didn't see coming

#16 Postby Weather Dude » Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:34 pm

Hanna this year was another flop by the models. Not as significant as some of these others but it was still a high end Cat 1 the models missed
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Re: Most significant storms that models didn't see coming

#17 Postby Weather Dude » Sun Nov 22, 2020 1:01 am

Current Cyclone 03A in the Indian Ocean...
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Re: Most significant storms that models didn't see coming

#18 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Nov 25, 2020 4:31 am

Dorian. Not even the HWRF and HMON saw that one coming, but the fact that both the GFS/ECMWF missed it says something. The NHC’s track really busted.
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Re: Most significant storms that models didn't see coming

#19 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Nov 25, 2020 8:32 am

Meranti '16 is a good one that fits the criteria. I was doing blogs on WU at the time on the Western Pacific, and I remember discussing some of the wacky and crazy solutions with Lionrock a little bit beforehand, but after it and Namtheun, guidance went quiet with maybe only a weak circulation or two during the second week of September, despite a pretty good looking disturbance in the center of a weak reverse-oriented monsoon trough. Well, not only did that disturbance become the 170 kt Super Typhoon Meranti, but Tropical Storm Rai developed on the ROMT to the SW in the South China Sea, Tropical Storm 17W developed on the ROMT to Meranti's NE, and an easterly wave over the open Tropical Western Pacific developed into Typhoon Malakas that week. Talk about a major whiff!
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Re: Most significant storms that models didn't see coming

#20 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:21 am

The one storm that I personally tracked that completely defied what the models were saying and awed me as it managed to do the unthinkable was Dorian. It was forecast initially as a sputtering TS east of the Antilles to turn north, crash into Hispaniola, and then not do much afterwards (on several runs it did become a minimal hurricane south of the big island but the island ripped it to shreds and weakened it to a TD). However, the unexpected turn north more east than expected, even only clipping the eastern part of Puerto Rico, did a great favor to Dorian. With the incoming ridge of HP, Dorian did not turn all the way north and instead began turning west east of the N Bahamas, and this area was very favorable (shear-wise, sst wise, and UOHC-wise) for it to strengthen. The rest is history. Other storms that I think defied what the models were thinking from the start were Michael and Sally.
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