Most significant storms that models didn't see coming

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Homie J
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Re: Most significant storms that models didn't see coming

#21 Postby Homie J » Wed Jan 06, 2021 3:56 pm

aspen wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:Can we go the other way too? If so, I'd like to nominate Typhoon Kammuri. If I recall correctly, at one point there was talk about Kammuri becoming Haiyan 2.0, with pretty much every model making it a monster Cat 5. Instead, it struggled big time for most of its life and "only" became a lower end Cat 4

Kammuri in the WPac and Nisarga in the Arabian Sea were both systems that the Euro seriously overestimated, only for them to end up significantly weaker than modeled. This seems to be the beginning of the Euro’s ongoing poor performance: unable to sniff out a Cat 5 just a few days in advance, and sometimes blowing up systems far beyond what they actually become (see the Euro’s Cat 5 runs for Atsani and post-CA Eta).


Where can I find the Euro past runs for those storms?
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HurricaneEnzo
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Re: Most significant storms that models didn't see coming

#22 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Tue Jan 19, 2021 7:57 am

Joaquin 2015. If memory serves models initially indicated it wouldn't get much stronger than a depression. Ended up pounding the Bahamas and almost reached Cat 5 before all was said and done.
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: Most significant storms that models didn't see coming

#23 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Jan 19, 2021 12:01 pm

Going to have to agree that Joaquin was the most significant. Dorian at least had some limited support. Joaquin didn't have a single model showing more than a tropical depression / 35-knot tropical storm when it formed.
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Re: Most significant storms that models didn't see coming

#24 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Jan 21, 2021 11:59 am

Hurricane Lorenzo second RI phase. They continued to forecast weakening after it weakened to a low end cat 3 and instead made it to Cat 5 defying all.
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