Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

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Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

#1 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Fri Dec 04, 2020 11:39 pm

Mine are:
14 named storms
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125 ACE
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Re: Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

#2 Postby Nawtamet » Sat Dec 05, 2020 12:01 am

My thoughts right now is how will the ENSO fare in 2021.

I can't recall a time when a significant La Niña sharply turns into a strong El Niño to dampen a hurricane season.

It's too early to make a call but I think we could continue with a La Niña or go into a weak El Niño; nothing to repeat breaking into the Greek letters again,
but might be an active season.

Of course, there is always the probability of a 2006 analogy and the fact that the upcoming naming list mostly gets inactive seasons; of course, that is a trend that could always
break anytime.
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Re: Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

#3 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Sat Dec 05, 2020 12:05 am

Nawtamet wrote:My thoughts right now is how will the ENSO fare in 2021.

I can't recall a time when a significant La Niña sharply turns into a strong El Niño to dampen a hurricane season.

It's too early to make a call but I think we could continue with a La Niña or go into a weak El Niño; nothing to repeat breaking into the Greek letters again,
but might be an active season.

Of course, there is always the probability of a 2006 analogy and the fact that the upcoming naming list mostly gets inactive seasons; of course, that is a trend that could always
break anytime.


I would agree on that especially with on how strong this La Nina is. Now as far as the activity level depends on this and other factors. We shall see once we get closer to the season.
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Re: Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

#4 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Dec 05, 2020 12:12 am

Nawtamet wrote:My thoughts right now is how will the ENSO fare in 2021.

I can't recall a time when a significant La Niña sharply turns into a strong El Niño to dampen a hurricane season.

It's too early to make a call but I think we could continue with a La Niña or go into a weak El Niño; nothing to repeat breaking into the Greek letters again,
but might be an active season.

Of course, there is always the probability of a 2006 analogy and the fact that the upcoming naming list mostly gets inactive seasons; of course, that is a trend that could always
break anytime.



That's about what I said in another post somewhere. Either a 2006 repeat, or what 2006 was originally predicted to be (weren't people saying something like a continuation of 2005?). Don't know about an El Nino next year, but time will tell. Currently thinking it won't happen. Actually, now I'm wondering if there were any signs of a possible developing Nino in the winter or spring of 2006? I don't remember the conversation from that far back and I'm too lazy right now to look for it. :lol:
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Re: Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

#5 Postby Weather Dude » Sat Dec 05, 2020 12:31 am

Waaayy to early for me to even start thinking about numbers predictions for 2021 lol. As others have stated, it could be a 2006-type scenario. Or it could be another active year. It's simply just too soon to tell and it will be for several more months. Besides, as someone from Oklahoma, I'm more focused on what the 2021 severe season is gonna look like at this point, since it was basically non-existent in 2020, at least in terms of tornadoes.
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Re: Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

#6 Postby ClarCari » Mon Dec 07, 2020 3:51 pm

Is this thread allowed to be in the Active Storms section?

Anyways I have to ignore when people make the 2006 analogy most of the time as most of it is wishful thinking, albeit very understandable because of 2020, but people hardly ever put the science of 2005 and 2020 against eachother to make an actual analysis.

2005 was a more neutral ENSO. It was already very susceptible to forecast becoming an El Niño from November 2005, but the ENSO didn’t show signs of warming considerably until the last second by summer 2006.
2020 is a bonafide La Niña event even more defined than 2005. Unless the trades can slow down almost ridiculously long enough from now until spring (unlikely to slow down much) there is almost no chance of a 2006 ENSO warming phase. Neutral is the best bet. Whether cool-neutral or maybeeeeeeeee slightly warm-neutral is yet to be seen. A cool down to another La Niña is also possible.

As for any forecast one could make this far out, I’m going to just average out what has happened in seasons following these types of La Niña events since that is about as much as you could do at this point.

NS: 15-19
H: 6-10
MH:3-5

We could double dip into the auxiliary list (hopefully something new!) for the second year in a row for all we know at this point.

But I’m going with the likelihood that the Atlantic waters are probably not cooling down anytime soon and the chance of a suppressive El Niño for the Atlantic won’t happen until at least 2022.

Buckle Up!
Last edited by ClarCari on Mon Dec 07, 2020 4:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

#7 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Dec 07, 2020 4:20 pm

ClarCari wrote:Is this thread allowed to be in the Active Storms section?

Anyways I have to ignore when people make the 2006 analogy most of the time as most of it is wishfull thinking, albeit very understandable because of 2020, but people hardly ever put the science of 2005 and 2020 against eachother to make an actual analysis.




I can't speak for anyone else in this thread, but for me the 2006 analogy isn't really wishful thinking, just something I've been wondering about. Thanks for the comparison though! In any case, I think it will be interesting to see how next season turns out. 8-)

And yeah, this should probably be in Talkin' Tropics, but I guess that's up to the mods.
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Re: Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

#8 Postby Weather Dude » Mon Dec 07, 2020 4:37 pm

ClarCari wrote:Is this thread allowed to be in the Active Storms section?

Anyways I have to ignore when people make the 2006 analogy most of the time as most of it is wishful thinking, albeit very understandable because of 2020, but people hardly ever put the science of 2005 and 2020 against eachother to make an actual analysis.

2005 was a more neutral ENSO. It was already very susceptible to forecast becoming an El Niño from November 2005, but the ENSO didn’t show signs of warming considerably until the last second by summer 2006.
2020 is a bonafide La Niña event even more defined than 2005. Unless the trades can slow down almost ridiculously long enough from now until spring (unlikely to slow down much) there is almost no chance of a 2006 ENSO warming phase. Neutral is the best bet. Whether cool-neutral or maybeeeeeeeee slightly warm-neutral is yet to be seen. A cool down to another La Niña is also possible.

As for any forecast one could make this far out, I’m going to just average out what has happened in seasons following these types of La Niña events since that is about as much as you could do at this point.

NS: 15-19
H: 6-10
MH:3-5

We could double dip into the auxiliary list (hopefully something new!) for the second year in a row for all we know at this point.

But I’m going with the likelihood that the Atlantic waters are probably not cooling down anytime soon and the chance of a suppressive El Niño for the Atlantic won’t happen until at least 2022.

Buckle Up!

I remember posters on here bringing up 2006 earlier for this season lol. We all saw how that turned out...
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Re: Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

#9 Postby weeniepatrol » Tue Dec 08, 2020 2:40 am

2006 had a moderate el nino. That seems unlikely to happen in 2021 given the strength of the current la nina, but once we get through spring we will have a better idea
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Re: Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

#10 Postby tolakram » Tue Dec 08, 2020 7:50 am

Thread moved to Talking Tropics.
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Re: Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

#11 Postby wxman57 » Tue Dec 08, 2020 10:12 am

My prediction is less than 30 named storms. I'm standing firm there. Hopefully, a very quiet season. Likely a neutral ENSO.
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Re: Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

#12 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Dec 08, 2020 1:32 pm

My last post of the season (assuming no wave in the Caribbean or Atlantic decides to develop and head towards land) will be my early thoughts of 2021.

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Re: Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

#13 Postby kevin » Tue Dec 08, 2020 2:05 pm

As others have stated it's still way too early to say anything concrete so any estimate made at this stage is an educated guess at best, but considering how strong the La Niña currently is, I think it's unlikely 2021 will be an El Niño season. I think a neutral ENSO is the most extreme case, even though I think a slightly negative / weaker La Niña feels like the most likely case. Based on that I don't think 2021 will be a 2006 redux. Don't get me wrong, I'm not predicting another 2020 but I think an average to above average season is most likely at this stage with a slight edge to above average. But then again, it's only December and there's still a lot that can happen in the meantime.
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Re: Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

#14 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 08, 2020 7:45 pm

Reserve your numbers for the 2021 S2K poll that begins on April 1. For me is too early to have an opinión and that is why I always start the annual poll on April as data from the different factors like ENSO, AMO, SST's etc begin to be available.
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Re: Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

#15 Postby Hurricanehink » Wed Dec 09, 2020 2:27 pm

I'm thinking it'll be like a 1996 to the busy 1995 season - quite a few major hurricanes, and more long-tracked storms, just fewer formations (especially in July/November).
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Re: Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

#16 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Dec 09, 2020 3:02 pm

Tough to say. It's easy to be wary due to how the last two hyperactive/active seasons (2005/2017) were followed by a more active Pacific hurricane season and thus a more quiet Atlantic hurricane season in 2006 and 2018. But this La Nina is stronger than the La Nina observed in 2005 and 2017. So the effects may linger longer and if there's no warm transition in place, the trade winds during the summer will tilt ENSO back towards cool neutral or even a double dip La Nina.
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Re: Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

#17 Postby aspen » Wed Dec 09, 2020 5:16 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Tough to say. It's easy to be wary due to how the last two hyperactive/active seasons (2005/2017) were followed by a more active Pacific hurricane season and thus a more quiet Atlantic hurricane season in 2006 and 2018. But this La Nina is stronger than the La Nina observed in 2005 and 2017. So the effects may linger longer and if there's no warm transition in place, the trade winds during the summer will tilt ENSO back towards cool neutral or even a double dip La Nina.

Also important to note that a more active EPac doesn’t mean a chill Atlantic. 2018 saw more activity in the EPac, but the Atlantic was also well above-average and impactful, with the first CONUS Cat 5 landfall since Andrew and total damages of $50 billion. The EPac beat it because it was one of the most active TC seasons ever recorded worldwide. In fact, just about every basin — NAtl, EPac, WPac, and SWIO — was above-average and more impactful than normal, and the year saw at least 10 Category 5 systems (Hector and Ambali have arguments for upgrades).

I don’t really know how else to add on to this discussion. It all depends on what the ENSO does, but since it’s already a much stronger La Niña than 2005 or 2017, a 2005/06 switch to an El Niño seems unlikely.
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Re: Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

#18 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Dec 09, 2020 5:40 pm

aspen wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Tough to say. It's easy to be wary due to how the last two hyperactive/active seasons (2005/2017) were followed by a more active Pacific hurricane season and thus a more quit Atlantic hurricane season in 2006 and 2018. But this La Nina is stronger than the La Nina observed in 2005 and 2017. So the effects may linger longer and if there's no warm transition in place, the trade winds during the summer will tilt ENSO back towards cool neutral or even a double dip La Nina.

Also important to note that a more active EPac doesn’t mean a chill Atlantic. 2018 saw more activity in the EPac, but the Atlantic was also well above-average and impactful, with the first CONUS Cat 5 landfall since Andrew and total damages of $50 billion. The EPac beat it because it was one of the most active TC seasons ever recorded worldwide. In fact, just about every basin — NAtl, EPac, WPac, and SWIO — was above-average and more impactful than normal, and the year saw at least 10 Category 5 systems (Hector and Ambali have arguments for upgrades).

I don’t really know how else to add on to this discussion. It all depends on what the ENSO does, but since it’s already a much stronger La Niña than 2005 or 2017, a 2005/06 switch to an El Niño seems unlikely.

You can get an active Atlantic with warm-neutral ENSO, though these seasons are often weaker and less focused on the deep tropics. Based on ENSO history I think a full-blown El Niño is unlikely to develop in time to suppress the 2021 season.
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Re: Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

#19 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Dec 09, 2020 6:41 pm

aspen wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Tough to say. It's easy to be wary due to how the last two hyperactive/active seasons (2005/2017) were followed by a more active Pacific hurricane season and thus a more quit Atlantic hurricane season in 2006 and 2018. But this La Nina is stronger than the La Nina observed in 2005 and 2017. So the effects may linger longer and if there's no warm transition in place, the trade winds during the summer will tilt ENSO back towards cool neutral or even a double dip La Nina.

Also important to note that a more active EPac doesn’t mean a chill Atlantic. 2018 saw more activity in the EPac, but the Atlantic was also well above-average and impactful, with the first CONUS Cat 5 landfall since Andrew and total damages of $50 billion. The EPac beat it because it was one of the most active TC seasons ever recorded worldwide. In fact, just about every basin — NAtl, EPac, WPac, and SWIO — was above-average and more impactful than normal, and the year saw at least 10 Category 5 systems (Hector and Ambali have arguments for upgrades).

I don’t really know how else to add on to this discussion. It all depends on what the ENSO does, but since it’s already a much stronger La Niña than 2005 or 2017, a 2005/06 switch to an El Niño seems unlikely.

I'm leaning towards this scenario but it is tough to say until we get into the Spring.
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Re: Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

#20 Postby CFLHurricane » Thu Dec 10, 2020 1:21 pm

I’m a firm believer that superactive years occur in pairs, and next year will be a slightly less active simulacrum of 2020. I can easily see 21+ storms with the Gulf once again being the center of attention and peninsular Florida not being able to dodge this bullet.
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