Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

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FireRat
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Re: Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

#21 Postby FireRat » Thu Dec 10, 2020 1:49 pm

It really is early but very tempting to give numbers for 2021 lol, I can say almost for sure we won't have 30 named storms again next year. I do think 2021 could behave like a slightly more active 2006-ish type year following the insane 2005 season... but this is only a hunch.

My best guess would be a slightly above average season with a fair number of hurricanes and 2 to 4 majors. I would also say a few long-track MDR storms would be more likely this time around too. A neutral ENSO would favor this IMO, and such storms would have a better than average chance to get close to the Southeast US, Bahamas, and maybe the Caribbean islands. We'll see, hopefully the season won't be a devastating one like 2020
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Re: Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

#22 Postby chaser1 » Fri Dec 11, 2020 8:35 am

Am gonna defer to both CFLHurricane and FireRat here. Look for an overall busy Atlantic Season with a continuation of an active GOM and Caribbean. Might be a bad year for Cuba and Florida though. I could see ENSO begin to warm but not until late in the season (Oct/Nov) which could abruptly end an already active and strong season.
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Re: Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

#23 Postby MarioProtVI » Sat Dec 12, 2020 1:13 am

Following the intense activity of the last several years back to 2016 I think the Atlantic will have finally run out of gas from the last true El Niño in 2015, as 2018-19 served to add some more energy. I think a 2006-like season is quite possible and could happen abruptly too - 2006 was originally harped to be a sequel of sorts to 2005 and then El Niño came out of nowhere and killed that off pretty quickly - I think a similar scenario will play out here. Plus, the Atlantic can only go so long without reserves from El Niño (see 2010–12 and then the fart that was 2013)

For now, I think 2021 will be 13-5-2 with 101 ACE. Slightly below average. Much less destruction too due to a weaker ridge causing more recurves.
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Re: Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

#24 Postby ClarCari » Sat Dec 12, 2020 2:50 am

MarioProtVI wrote:Following the intense activity of the last several years back to 2016 I think the Atlantic will have finally run out of gas from the last true El Niño in 2015, as 2018-19 served to add some more energy. I think a 2006-like season is quite possible and could happen abruptly too - 2006 was originally harped to be a sequel of sorts to 2005 and then El Niño came out of nowhere and killed that off pretty quickly - I think a similar scenario will play out here. Plus, the Atlantic can only go so long without reserves from El Niño (see 2010–12 and then the fart that was 2013)

For now, I think 2021 will be 13-5-2 with 101 ACE. Slightly below average. Much less destruction too due to a weaker ridge causing more recurves.

While I get your sentiment about the Atlantic running out of gas from a long break from El Niño due to fatigue, I’m afraid that is not how the atmosphere works. Nothing natural on planet earth is ever truly “due” to happen in a certain time.

*REMEMBER*
The 2005 La Niña was more neutral while 2020 is stronger.

The 2006 comparison DOES NOT apply here.

Personally, since I think the chances of a cool-neutral to weak/moderate La Niña for summer and fall 2021 are rather high, i’m more interested in the positioning of the Bermuda High. A slower BH tends to favor more long tracking and powerful Cape Verde storms and that could potentially be what sets apart 2021 from 2020. There’s a spot of below-average SST in the upper-North ATL that I believe could influence how that plays out according the the CSU qualitative forecast.
Last edited by ClarCari on Tue Dec 15, 2020 2:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

#25 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Dec 12, 2020 10:03 am

I do remember a lot of talk previously about how maybe 2013's issue was due to it being too long since the previous El Nino, but then that stopped at some point. Wasn't the problem in 2013 actually due to a thermohaline collapse (whatever that is :wink: )?
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Re: Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

#26 Postby aspen » Sat Dec 12, 2020 10:10 am

AnnularCane wrote:I do remember a lot of talk previously about how maybe 2013's issue was due to it being too long since the previous El Nino, but then that stopped at some point. Wasn't the problem in 2013 actually due to a thermohaline collapse (whatever that is :wink: )?

Correct, it was the collapse of the Thermohaline Circulation, which resulted in hostile spring-like atmospheric patterns persisting into hurricane season — higher shear and atmospheric stability, more gyres in the subtropical Atlantic, less convergence and moisture in the ITCZ, etc.
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Re: Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

#27 Postby MGC » Mon Dec 14, 2020 12:39 pm

Hope it is a slow season....but, with a likely weak La Nina or neutral conditions another active season is likely IMO......MGC
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Re: Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

#28 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Dec 14, 2020 8:52 pm

My First Post!!!

Ok I believe that the positive AMO has ended yet with a potential cool neutral to occur. (given the cool sst near the azores is why I have made the -AMO Claim but your right I need more time with several years to make this affirmation)

given this I predict
15
6
2
ACE 80-105
Last edited by InfernoFlameCat on Mon Dec 14, 2020 9:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

#29 Postby Weather Dude » Mon Dec 14, 2020 9:49 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:My First Post!!!

Ok I believe that the positive AMO has ended yet with a potential cool neutral to occur.

given this I predict
15
6
2
ACE 80-105

I highly doubt the +AMO is over. If we get numbers like that it will most likely be an ENSO issue and not an AMO issue. See 2014/15 as examples. Anyway, welcome aboard!
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Re: Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

#30 Postby Gums » Mon Dec 14, 2020 11:03 pm

Salute!

I go with Wx Dude - ENSO will determine the season for we folks in the Gulf. We sure had enuf action this past year, and it's about time for the Atlantic coast to see more storms. The outlier I would take a bet on will be a storm that hits between VA and MA. YThey are way overdue.

I have really enjoyed learning stuff here last two years, and look forward for next year. So logging until then, but can lurk if something really wierd happens before May.

Gums sends...
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Re: Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

#31 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Dec 25, 2020 4:41 pm

Tbh at this point in time it is way too early to know for sure (SAL and sst anomalies are usually hard to predict until April or May or so), but there are two major clues that I think will allow us to have an idea of what could happen: the ENSO state and the AMO state. We have been in a positive AMO since 1995, and as a result let's just assume that no sudden shift occurs next year and that we remain in +AMO. Regarding ENSO, it is likely that given the moderate strength of this La Nina we would, at most, be in a slightly cool or warm neutral phase. An El Nino occurring right after a moderate La Nina is extremely rare (I actually do not remember a case of this ever occurring tbh). So assuming we are in a +AMO and a neutral to perhaps a weak La Nina state, those are two factors that automatically favor an active Atlantic. Again, it is still very early to predict numbers, but assuming no strange THC collapse occurs like in 2013, I think it would be fair to say that an active 2021 season is not implausible (and if this occurs we would have 6 straight above average seasons, which is unprecedented). I definitely don't think we'll get 30 storms or anywhere near that number. However (while we all hope 2021 will be below average and not destructive) be prepared for anything because there have been cases of back-to-back hyperactive seasons in the past, and who thought the crazy 2004 season would be followed by a far worse and extreme 2005?
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Re: Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

#32 Postby NotSparta » Mon Dec 28, 2020 6:45 pm

Too early but I'd probably lean above average given the likelihood for a good amount of -NAO this winter which could warm up the SSTs, plus there being a 1st year La Niña, suggesting that El Niño for the season isn't very likely
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Re: Any Early Thoughts on the 2021 Hurricane Season

#33 Postby chaser1 » Tue Dec 29, 2020 9:23 am

The topic banter is interesting to ponder but as with each upcoming year, I continue to suggest that the far more important question is "WHERE" rather then "how many". Of course everyone knows that these answers are just as elusive as "how many" however any hints that may suggest which regions throughout the Atlantic basin will favor development and more importantly where primary storm tracks will more likely occur will better suggest how potentially grave or reduced the threat from next year's hurricane season may be.

Having said that, had someone with a crystal ball last year suggest that last season would present all the storm activity that occurred as well as broadly allude to all the Caribbean and Gulf tracks that would occur during the months to come..... I am sure that I would have been first in line to think that the 2020 hurricane season would have proven far more catastrophic in terms of damage and deaths as a result of storm landfalls then had actually occurred. In spite of the number of storm U.S. and Caribbean landfalls we were very fortunate that a far greater wrath did not occur to those larger population areas as could easily have been the case. We'll never have that level of foresight beyond a few days prior to any landfall let alone during the preseason, however indications of fewer or greater storm threats to land do offer some level of insight into risk assessment. "It only take's one" applies each year but one stands a greater risk of pain and suffering if coming in contact with an actual wasp nest verses potential contact with one random wasp in the vicinity.

So, the questions going into next hurricane season should look at current and evolving long wave patters, regional and broader scale atmospheric conditions likely to impact genesis and overall conditions for tropical cyclone strengthening or weakening, and naturally the interplay of various climate oscillation patterns. The complexities & potential teleconnections that result from multiple oscillation pattern set-ups or evolution are certainly far less simple then broad brushstroke statements such as "it's a positive NAO, therefore X,Y,Z will certainly occur". All the pre-season hyperbole regarding parts of the basic being 1/2 degree C above/below normal should be given it's proper perspective rather then suggestive of any end-all conclusions either way.
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